Researcher Database

Toyoichiro Shirota
Faculty of Economics and Business Division of Modern Economics and Management Economic Policy
Associate Professor

Researcher Profile and Settings

Affiliation

  • Faculty of Economics and Business Division of Modern Economics and Management Economic Policy

Job Title

  • Associate Professor

J-Global ID

Research Areas

  • Humanities & social sciences / Economic policy

Research Activities

Published Papers

  • Toyoichiro Shirota
    JOURNAL OF MONEY CREDIT AND BANKING 53 (5) 1211 - 1222 0022-2879 2021/08 [Refereed][Not invited]
     
    This study analyzes the cost of sticky prices when intermediate goods are used in production. One major result is that the cost of sticky prices increases as the production structure deepens. A simple one-sector model without intermediate inputs underestimates the cost of nonzero trend inflation.
  • Toyoichiro Shirota
    Macroeconomic Dynamics 1 - 10 1365-1005 2021/06/09 [Refereed]
     
    Abstract This study empirically examines whether shock size matters for the US monetary policy effects. Using a nonlinear local projection method, I find that large monetary policy shocks are less powerful than smaller monetary policy shocks, with the information effect being the potential source of the observed asymmetry in monetary policy efficacy.
  • Toyoichiro Shirota
    Economics Letters 181 54 - 56 0165-1765 2019/08 [Refereed][Not invited]
     
    © 2019 The Author(s) This study proposes a simple methodology to conditionally estimate monetary-policy rule parameters for underlying structural shocks. The results are summarized as follows. First, the Federal Reserve (Fed) chooses different responses to different types of shocks. Second, the long-run response of policy rates to inflation does not exceed 1 for some shocks. This result suggests that the Fed does not meet the Taylor principle for some shocks.
  • Toyoichiro Shirota
    Journal of Macroeconomics 57 138 - 149 0164-0704 2018/09/01 [Refereed][Not invited]
     
    Some recent studies argue that spillovers from land prices into the aggregate economy are the crucial drivers of business cycles. Other studies stress the importance of investment shocks at business cycle frequencies. This study evaluates these two strands of the literature in a single unified framework by estimating a New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with a collateral constraint on investment financing. The results are twofold: (i) when these features are combined, neither shocks that drive most of land-price fluctuations nor investment shocks are the primary source of U.S. business cycles and (ii) technology shocks play an important role in business cycles.
  • Takuji Fueki, Ichiro Fukunaga, Hibiki Ichiue, Toyoichiro Shirota
    INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CENTRAL BANKING 12 (1) 1 - 32 1815-4654 2016/03 [Refereed][Not invited]
     
    In this paper, we calculate the potential output and the output gap using a Bayesian-estimated DSGE model of Japan's economy. For bridging the gap with conventional measures, we define our measure of potential output as a component of the efficient output generated only by persistent growth rate shocks. Our potential growth displays a high degree of smoothness and moves closely with conventional measures. Moreover, the output gap from our measure of potential output shows better forecasting performance for inflation-in particular, at short horizons-than other measures of output gap.
  • Toyoichiro Shirota
    ECONOMICS LETTERS 132 87 - 90 0165-1765 2015/07 [Refereed][Not invited]
     
    This study indicates why the Phillips curve is flattened in an environment of low trend inflation. The key is the curvature of the demand curve. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
  • Toyoichiro Shirota
    JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL MONEY AND FINANCE 53 137 - 147 0261-5606 2015/05 [Refereed][Not invited]
     
    This study examines the major determinant of cross-border credit flows through global banks across 70 countries. Employing a Bayesian dynamic latent factor model, we decompose volatilities of banking flows into the contribution of a global common factor, regional common factor, and country-specific factor. The results indicate that the global and regional common factor explains about 40-50 percent of volatility in overall cross-border banking flows. In particular, the contribution of the global common factor increased in the 2000s. Simultaneously, main determinants are largely heterogeneous across countries: this implies that the desirable policy response to credit inflows may differ for each host country. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
  • 宮尾 龍蔵, 中村 康治, 代田 豊一郎
    経済学論集 東京大学経済学会 74 (2) 2 - 39 0022-9768 2008/07 [Not refereed][Not invited]
  • Revisiting the decline in the exchange rate pass-through : further evidence from Japan's import prices
    Akira Otani, Shigenori Shiratsuka, Toyoichiro Shirota
    Monetary and Economic Studies 2005 [Not refereed][Not invited]
  • 大井 博之, 白塚 重典, 代田 豊一郎
    金融研究 日本銀行金融研究所 23 (3) 121 - 159 0287-5306 2004/10 [Not refereed][Not invited]
  • The choice of invoice currency in international trade : implications for the interntaionalization of the yen
    Hiroyuki Oi, Akira Otani, Toyoichiro Shirota
    Monetary and Economic Studies 2004 [Not refereed][Not invited]
  • On long-run monetary neutrality in Japan
    Hiroyuki Oi, Shigenori Shiratsuka, Toyoichiro Shirota
    Monetary and Economic Studies 2004 [Not refereed][Not invited]
  • 大井 博之, 大谷 聡, 代田 豊一郎
    金融研究 日本銀行金融研究所 22 (3) 91 - 130 0287-5306 2003/09 [Not refereed][Not invited]
  • 大谷 聡, 白塚 重典, 代田 豊一郎
    金融研究 日本銀行金融研究所 22 (3) 59 - 90 0287-5306 2003/09 [Not refereed][Not invited]
  • The decline in the exchange rate pass-through : evidence from Japanese import prices
    Akira Otani, Shigenori Shiratsuka, Toyoichiro Shirota
    Monetary and Economic Studies 2003 [Not refereed][Not invited]
  • 代田 豊一郎, 馬場 直彦
    金融研究 日本銀行金融研究所 21 (2) 213 - 249 0287-5306 2002/06 [Not refereed][Not invited]

Conference Activities & Talks

  • Shock Size Matters for Monetary Policy  [Not invited]
    Toyoichiro Shirota
    WEAI 15th international conference  2019/03
  • Shock size matters for monetary policy  [Not invited]
    Toyoichiro Shirota
    45th annual conference of Eastern economic association  2019/03
  • Monetary Policy Shock and Monetary Policy Rule  [Not invited]
    Toyoichiro Shirota
    RCAST Macroeconomic Analysis Workshop  2019/01
  • Comment: “Price Index for Storable Goods”  [Not invited]
    Toyoichiro Shirota
    1st Keio-Waseda Macro Workshop  2018/09
  • Not All Exchange Rate Movements Are Alike: Exchange Rate Persistence and Pass-Through to Consumer Prices  [Not invited]
    Toyoichiro Shirota
    2018 Asian Meeting of Econometric Society  2018/06
  • Evaluating the ‘Unconventional’ Unconventional Monetary Policy: The Propensity Score Approach  [Not invited]
    Toyoichiro Shirota
    4th IAAE Annual Meeting  2017/06
  • Housing demand spillovers and economic fluctuations  [Not invited]
    Toyoichiro Shirota
    Econometric Society, far-eastern meeting  2017/05
  • Evaluating the ‘Unconventional’ Unconventional Monetary Policy: The Propensity Score Approach  [Not invited]
    Toyoichiro Shirota
    Joint Economics Symposium of five leading east asian universities  2017/01
  • Housing demand spillovers and economic fluctuations  [Not invited]
    Toyoichiro Shirota
    Yonsei-Hokudai Economics Workshop  2016/09

MISC

  • Measuring Robot Quality: Has Quality Improvement Slowed Down?
    Ippei Fujiwara, Ryo Kimoto, Shigenori Shiratsuka, Toyoichiro Shirota  RIETI Discussion papers 21-E-054  2021/07  [Not refereed][Not invited]
  • Note on alternative work arrangements, tasks, and compensations : Evidence from a quasi-natural experiment
    Toyoichiro Shirota  Discussion paper series. A  355-  1  -11  2020/12  [Not refereed][Not invited]
  • Shirota Toyoichiro  Discussion Paper, Series A  323-  1  -20  2018/03  [Not refereed][Not invited]
     
    Some recent studies argue that spillovers from land prices into the aggregate economy are the crucial drivers of business cycles. Other studies stress the importance of investment shocks at business cycle frequencies. This study evaluates these two strands of the literature in a single unified framework by estimating a New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with a collateral constraint on investment financing. The results are twofold: (i) when these features are combined, neither shocks that drives most of land-price fluctuations nor investment shocks are the primary source of U.S. business cycles; and (ii) technology shocks play an important role in business cycles.
  • Shirota Toyoichiro  Discussion Paper, Series A  322-  1  -22  2018/03  [Not refereed][Not invited]
     
    This study analyzes the effect of a central bank's intervention in stock markets, while allowing for nonlinearities and state dependencies, using a semi-parametric approach. A causal inference on such intervention is difficult because of the selfselective behavior of central banks. To address these problems, we apply the propensity score method in a time series context, exploiting stock price information of a single day. We find that first, there are demand pressure effects in stock markets if an intervention is large enough. Second, the effects are state-dependent and stronger during market downturns. Finally, a central bank's interventions have a considerable impact on stock prices only when we take permanent demand pressure effects into consideration.
  • Shirota Toyoichiro  Discussion Paper, Series A  311-  1  -22  2017/09  [Not refereed][Not invited]
     
    This study develops a framework to identify persistent and transitory shocks in exchange-rate movements and to estimate the shock-specific exchange-rate pass-through to domestic prices. The framework combines a dataset of a long time series of exchange-rate forecasts since the 1980s with a range restriction that is a natural generalization of the standard sign restriction. The empirical results show that exchange rate pass-through is higher when a persistent shock dominates exchange-rate movements. The composition of persistent and transitory shocks varies over time. This study asserts that time variations of exchange rate pass-through are at least partly attributable to differences in shock-specific pass-through rates and variations in the composition of shocks over time. Applying our identification procedure to disaggregated prices of the CPI, we also find that a correlation between pass-through coefficients and frequencies of price adjustments is shock dependent. Specifically, the positive correlation, which is reported in Gopinath and Itskhoki [2010], disappears, when exchange-rate movements are transitory.
  • Quarterly-Japanese Economic Model (Q-JEM)
    Hibiki Ichiue,, Tomiyuki Kitamura, Satoko Kojima, Koji Nakamura, Naoko Hara, Toyoichiro Shirota  BOJ Working Paper Series  (09-J-06)  2009  [Not refereed][Not invited]
  • Costs of Stick Prices
    Toyoichiro Shirota, Takenobu Nakajima  BOJ Working Paper Series  (07-J-5)  2007  [Not refereed][Not invited]
  • Optimal Trend Inflation and Monetary Policy under Trending Relative Prices
    Toyoichiro Shirota  BOJ Working Paper Series  (07-E-01)  2007  [Not refereed][Not invited]
  • Estimation of the Phillips curve under heterogeneous price elasticity of demand
    Toyoichiro Shirota  BOJ Working Paper Series  (06-J-16)  2006  [Not refereed][Not invited]

Research Grants & Projects

  • 供給ネットワークとマクロ経済
    日本学術振興会:科学研究費助成事業 基盤研究(C)
    Date (from‐to) : 2021/04 -2024/03 
    Author : 代田 豊一郎
  • Robots, Labor and the Macroeconomy
    Research Institute of Economy, Trade, and Industry:
    Date (from‐to) : 2019/12 -2021/11
  • MEXT/JSPS KAKENHI Grant:Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (c)
    Date (from‐to) : 2018/04 -2021/03 
    Author : Toyoichiro Shirota
  • Effects of the stabilization policy and economic uncertainty
    Murata Science Foundation:Research grant
    Date (from‐to) : 2018/03 -2019/03 
    Author : Toyoichiro Shirota
  • Collateral constraint and Japan's economy: DSGE approach
    MEXT/JSPS KAKENHI Grant:Grant-in-Aid for Research Activity Start-up
    Date (from‐to) : 2016/04 -2018/03 
    Author : 代田豊一郎
  • Exchange rate pass through to consumer prices
    Zengin Foundation for Studies on Economics and Finance:Grant in aid
    Date (from‐to) : 2016/09 -2017/09 
    Author : 代田豊一郎

Educational Activities

Teaching Experience

  • 論文
    開講年度 : 2020
    課程区分 : 修士課程
    開講学部 : 経済学院
  • Special Study of International Finance A
    開講年度 : 2020
    課程区分 : 修士課程
    開講学部 : 経済学院
    キーワード : 国際金融、国際マクロ経済学、動学的アプローチ、international real business cycles, 経常収支、為替レート、UIP、CIP
  • 現代経済経営演習Ⅰ
    開講年度 : 2020
    課程区分 : 修士課程
    開講学部 : 経済学院
  • Special Study of International Finance B
    開講年度 : 2020
    課程区分 : 修士課程
    開講学部 : 経済学院
    キーワード : 為替レート、国際金融市場、対外債務問題、国際資本移動、通貨危機、為替相場制度の選択、
  • 現代経済経営演習Ⅱ
    開講年度 : 2020
    課程区分 : 修士課程
    開講学部 : 経済学院
  • Macroeconomics II
    開講年度 : 2020
    課程区分 : 学士課程
    開講学部 : 経済学部
    キーワード : 経済成長、景気循環、景気安定化政策、消費と投資、マクロ経済学の実証的側面
  • 現代経済経営演習
    開講年度 : 2020
    課程区分 : 博士後期課程
    開講学部 : 経済学研究科
  • Basics of Humanities and Social Sciences
    開講年度 : 2020
    課程区分 : 学士課程
    開講学部 : 全学教育
    キーワード : GDP、経済成長、失業、金融、マクロ経済政策(*)
  • 現代経済経営演習
    開講年度 : 2020
    課程区分 : 博士後期課程
    開講学部 : 経済学院
  • Seminar I
    開講年度 : 2020
    課程区分 : 学士課程
    開講学部 : 経済学部
    キーワード : 経済政策、個人研究
  • 卒業論文
    開講年度 : 2020
    課程区分 : 学士課程
    開講学部 : 経済学部
  • Seminar I
    開講年度 : 2020
    課程区分 : 学士課程
    開講学部 : 経済学部
    キーワード : 経済政策
  • 演習Ⅱ(2単位)
    開講年度 : 2020
    課程区分 : 学士課程
    開講学部 : 経済学部
  • Seminar II
    開講年度 : 2020
    課程区分 : 学士課程
    開講学部 : 経済学部
    キーワード : 経済政策、個人研究
  • 演習Ⅳ(2単位)
    開講年度 : 2020
    課程区分 : 学士課程
    開講学部 : 経済学部
  • Seminar III
    開講年度 : 2020
    課程区分 : 学士課程
    開講学部 : 経済学部
    キーワード : 経済政策、個人研究
  • 演習Ⅵ(2単位)
    開講年度 : 2020
    課程区分 : 学士課程
    開講学部 : 経済学部
  • Seminar III
    開講年度 : 2020
    課程区分 : 学士課程
    開講学部 : 経済学部
    キーワード : 経済政策
  • 演習Ⅷ(2単位)
    開講年度 : 2020
    課程区分 : 学士課程
    開講学部 : 経済学部
  • Seminar IV
    開講年度 : 2020
    課程区分 : 学士課程
    開講学部 : 経済学部
    キーワード : 経済政策、個人研究
  • Seminar V
    開講年度 : 2020
    課程区分 : 学士課程
    開講学部 : 経済学部
    キーワード : 経済政策、個人研究
  • Seminar V
    開講年度 : 2020
    課程区分 : 学士課程
    開講学部 : 経済学部
    キーワード : 経済政策
  • Seminar VI
    開講年度 : 2020
    課程区分 : 学士課程
    開講学部 : 経済学部
    キーワード : 経済政策、個人研究
  • Seminar VII
    開講年度 : 2020
    課程区分 : 学士課程
    開講学部 : 経済学部
    キーワード : 経済政策、個人研究
  • Seminar VII
    開講年度 : 2020
    課程区分 : 学士課程
    開講学部 : 経済学部
    キーワード : 経済政策
  • Seminar VIII
    開講年度 : 2020
    課程区分 : 学士課程
    開講学部 : 経済学部
    キーワード : 経済政策、個人研究
  • Modern Japanese Political Economy ID
    開講年度 : 2020
    課程区分 : 学士課程
    開講学部 : 現代日本学プログラム課程
    キーワード : 経済成長、景気循環、景気安定化政策、消費と投資、マクロ経済学の実証的側面
  • International Finance
    開講年度 : 2020
    課程区分 : 専門職大学院
    開講学部 : 公共政策学教育部
    キーワード : 国際金融、国際マクロ経済学、動学的アプローチ、international real business cycles, 経常収支、為替レート、UIP、CIP

Social Contribution

Social Contribution

Social Contribution

  • 北海道大学オープンキャンパス 「その政策に意味はあるか? 経済学で考 えてみよう」
    Date (from-to) : 2019/08/05
    Role : Lecturer
  • 現代の金融政策
    Date (from-to) : 2017/07/20
    Role : Lecturer
    Sponser, Organizer, Publisher  : 北海道大学
    Event, Program, Title : 平成29年度 北海道大学公開講座


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