Researcher Profile and Settings

Affiliation

• Faculty of Engineering　Civil Engineering　Natural Disasters and Adaptation

Job Title

• Professor

Degree

• (BLANK)（Hokkaido University）

URL

http://labs.eng.hokudai.ac.jp/labo/infrastructure/

Research funding number

• 90322833

J-Global ID

• 200901006446457981

Research Interests

• Transportation Planning   Traffic Engineering   

Research Areas

• Social infrastructure (civil Engineering, architecture, disaster prevention) / Civil engineering (planning and transportation)

Educational Organization

•  Bachelor's degree program　School of Engineering
•  Master's degree program　Graduate School of Engineering
•  Doctoral (PhD) degree program　Graduate School of Engineering

Academic & Professional Experience

• 2018/04 - Today 北海道大学大学院 教授
• 2013/04 - 2018/03 北海道大学大学院 准教授
• 2004/06 - 2013/03 北海道大学大学院 助手（2007年から助教）
• 2003/08 - 2004/05 英国リーズ大学交通研究所（文部科学省在外研究員）

Education

• 1997/04 - 2000/03  Hokkaido University
• 1995/04 - 1997/03  北海道大学大学院
•        - 1995  Kanagawa University  Faculty of Engineering  Department of Industrial Engineering and Management

Association Memberships

• 日本都市計画学会   交通工学研究会   土木学会   

Research Activities

Published Papers

• Estimation of stochastic link capacity and link performance function including uncertainty of driver’s behaviour

  Teppei Kato, Kenetsu Uchida, Ryuichi Tani, Kazunori Munehiro

  Transportmetrica A: Transport Science 2324-9935 2023 

  Recently, user equilibrium models with uncertainty were proposed to describe stochastic travel time in road networks. The accurate estimation of a stochastic link capacity is important for such models. This study develops a method for estimating a stochastic link capacity by considering the uncertainty of the driver’s behaviour. We postulate that the stochastic link capacity follows a lognormal distribution. The characteristics of the lognormal distribution suit real traffic observation, e.g. nonnegativity, asymmetricity, and long-tailed. Furthermore, the estimated link capacity can derive the analytical likelihood function for the link performance function. Then, the link performance function can be estimated analytically by explicitly considering the source of uncertainty. The proposed methods can contribute to the estimation of stochastic link capacity and the link performance function for the user equilibrium model with stochastic travel time. A numerical calculation demonstrates the proposed method using real traffic observations in Sapporo, Japan.
• The relationship of social vulnerability and travel behavior with COVID-19 in Metro Manila, Philippines

  Dianne Pacis Ancheta, Ryuichi Tani, Ken-etsu Uchida

  Asian Transport Studies 9 100093 - 100093 2185-5560 2023
• Ridesharing Traffic Flow Model based on Link-based Kinematic Wave Theory

  Ryuichi TANI, Tomoya NAKAUCHI, Kenetsu UCHIDA

  Journal of the Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies 14 634 - 646 2022 [Refereed][Not invited]
  
• Travel time reliability-based optimization problem for CAVs dedicated lanes

  Ryuichi Tani, Agachai Sumalee, Kenetsu Uchida

  TRANSPORTMETRICA A-TRANSPORT SCIENCE 2324-9935 2021/07 [Refereed]
   

  This paper proposed an optimization problem that determines the deployment pattern of dedicated lanes to connected autonomous vehicles (CAVs) considering the stochastic traffic demand and the stochastic traffic capacity. The difference between CAVs and regular human-piloted vehicles (RHVs) is driving behavior. The driving behavior of CAVs is expected to be more standardized than that of RHVs. Therefore, we assume that when the penetration ratio of CAVs increases in the lane flow, the mean lane capacity will increase, and the lane capacity variance will decrease. The mean and the variance of lane travel time decrease when the penetration ratio increases. Following this assumption, the difference in the stochastic properties between CAVs and RHVs is considered in a traffic assignment model. The traffic assignment model is formulated as a variational inequality problem. The network design problem with equilibrium constraints was solved by a simulated annealing algorithm in a test network.
• Analysis of the effect of bundled airport privatization on an airline network

  Ryuichi Tani, Ibuki Takashima, Teppei Kato, Toru Tamura, Kenetsu Uchida

  Transport Policy 124 203 - 211 0967-070X 2021/04 [Refereed]
   

  Depopulated regions face declines in traffic demand for airline service. The airline network in Hokkaido, Japan, plays an important role in the regional economy, healthcare, and sightseeing. Toward maintaining this airline network, the “bundled privatization” of airports has been discussed. Under such a system, several airports are privatized as a package for management by a single company. This study proposes a model for analyzing the behaviors of airport operators, airline companies, and passengers when bundled privatization is introduced to an airline network. Under bundled privatization, an airport management company can determine the landing fees of all airports such as to maximize the profits of all its airports, while an airline company can determine its service frequencies and aircraft sizes such as to maximize its profit. As a result of these two profit-maximization behaviors, an equilibrium state is obtained. The proposed model is applied to the airline network in Hokkaido, and the results of numerical calculations are discussed.
• Path Travel Time Estimating Method by Incomplete Traffic Data

  Ryuichi Tani, Takashi Owada, Kenetsu Uchida

  International Journal of Intelligent Transportation Systems Research 18 (1) 43 - 52 1348-8503 2020/01/01 [Refereed][Not invited]
   

  © 2018, Springer Science+Business Media, LLC, part of Springer Nature. This study proposes a method estimating stochastic path travel times by using both traffic counter data and probe car data complementarily. A stochastic traffic demand for each O-D pair in a road network is estimated by maximum likelihood estimation with respect to traffic counter data. Stochastic path travel times are addressed as a prior multivariate path travel time distribution. The estimated stochastic path travel time is updated by applying Bayesian inference using observed probe car data. The updated path travel time can be regarded as a posterior multivariate path travel time distribution. Numerical experiments demonstrate inference processes of path travel time and verify our proposed model.
• Estimation of the value of travel time and of travel time reliability for heterogeneous drivers in a road network

  Teppei Kato, Kenetsu Uchida, William H.K. Lam, Agachai Sumalee

  Transportation 48 (4) 1639 - 1670 0049-4488 2020 [Refereed][Not invited]
   

  © 2020, Springer Science+Business Media, LLC, part of Springer Nature. Travel time reliability has been recognized as an important factor in cost–benefit analysis in a transportation network. To estimate the benefit and cost of travel time reliability, several network models have been proposed to estimate the monetary values both of travel time and of travel time reliability based on the driver’s route choice behavior. In this study, we propose a network model that addresses monetary values that are specific to each origin–destination pair in a road network. The proposed model is formulated as a utility maximization problem with constraints in a manner similar to studies that address the value of travel time only. The proposed model has the same equilibrium conditions as a multiclass user equilibrium traffic assignment problem with elastic demand in which the risk-averse driver’s route choice behavior is explicitly considered. By accounting for data availability, we propose a parameter estimation method based on the maximum likelihood method with two alternative approaches; namely link flow-based and route flow-based approaches. However, the two proposed methods require link flow data only. Numerical experiments are carried out to demonstrate the performance of the two proposed methods together with some insightful findings.
• A method for structuring stochastic travel time by using risk premiums of stochastic link flow

  Ryuichi Tani, Teppei Kato, Kenetsu Uchida

  Transportmetrica A: Transport Science 17 (2) 212 - 232 2324-9935 2020 [Refereed][Not invited]
   

  © 2020, © 2020 Hong Kong Society for Transportation Studies Limited. This study proposes a method for structuring stochastic link travel times in a road network with stochastic traffic demands. In our proposed method, the uncertainty of travel time is evaluated by link-flow-based indices. The mean link travel time is represented by using both its mean link flow and the corresponding risk premium of the stochastic link flow. The risk premium is defined by a concept of certainty equivalent derived from the relationship between a stochastic link flow and a link cost function. By expanding the concept of risk premium, a calculation method of link travel time covariance is proposed. Our proposed method defines bi-variate risk premiums, by which the mean of the product of two stochastic link travel times can be calculated. As a numerical calculation, we demonstrate our proposed method in a test network. Finally, we conclude and show future directions for evaluating real road networks.
• A study on benefit estimation that considers the values of travel time and travel time reliability in road networks

  T. Kato, K. Uchida

  Transportmetrica A: Transport Science 14 (1-2) 89 - 109 2324-9935 2018/01/02 [Refereed][Not invited]
   

  © 2017 Hong Kong Society for Transportation Studies Limited. This study proposes a benefit estimation method that considers travel time reliability. The proposed method is based on a network model that is formulated as a utility maximization problem with constraints. Since this utility maximization problem has the same equilibrium conditions as a multi-class user equilibrium traffic assignment problem with elastic demand, both transport demand forecasting and benefit estimation can be carried out in the same framework. By assuming a certain form for the utility function, the road network model can estimate the prohibitive price, so the proposed method is convenient for estimating opportunity loss due to disruption of origin–destination connection in the event of a natural disaster. Furthermore, the values of travel time and travel time reliability are estimated endogenously in the proposed method; thus, changes in these values can be reflected in the benefit estimation. A numerical experiment demonstrates the method presented in this study.
• A method for representing variability of travel time based on stochastic link flow

  Ryuichi Tani, Teppei Kato, Kenetsu Uchida

  Transportation Systems in the Connected Era - Proceedings of the 23rd International Conference of Hong Kong Society for Transportation Studies, HKSTS 2018 415 - 423 2018 [Refereed][Not invited]
   

  © 2018 Transportation Systems in the Connected Era - Proceedings of the 23rd International Conference of Hong Kong Society for Transportation Studies, HKSTS 2018. All rights reserved. This study proposes a method for representing uncertain link travel times in a road network with stochastic traffic demands. In our proposed method, uncertainty of travel time is evaluated by link-flow-based indices. Mean of link travel time is represented by using both mean link flow and the corresponding risk premium of link flow. The risk premium is defined by a concept of certainty equivalent derived from relationship between a stochastic link flow and a link cost function. Similarly, risk premiums of two link flows which correspond to variance-covariance matrix of link travel time could also be defined, when both flows and travel times between different two links are statistically correlated. As a numerical calculation, we demonstrate the proposed method and show results of traffic assignment in a test network. At the end, we conclude this study and show future directions for applying proposed model to real problems.
• A financial resources allocation model considering stochastic travel time in a road network exposed to a flood risk

  Tani, R, Kato, K, Uchida, K, Kimura, I

  Journal of the Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies 2018 [Refereed][Not invited]
  
• A stochastic user equilibrium assignment model under stochastic demand and supply following lognormal distributions

  Tani, R, Uchida, K

  Asian Transport Studies 2018 [Refereed][Not invited]
  
• A study on effect of incentive reward institution for a deficit-ridden bus company on economic welfare

  Teppei Kato, Kenetsu Uchida, Kazuki Tanada

  Transportation Research Procedia 25 4038 - 4048 2352-1457 2017 [Refereed][Not invited]
   

  © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. Recently, number of bus users decreases by some reasons in Japan, e.g., the progress of motorization, depopulation and so on. Under such situation, local government may subsidize a bus company, which operates in the red, for sustaining public transportation service to the residents. Such bus company is hardly motivated to reduce its deficit since the present subsidy system in Japan compensates for almost the same amount as the deficit. For the purpose of motivating the bus company to reduce the deficit, the incentive reward institution is employed in this study. In the institution, the bus company can gain incentive reward from the local government if the deficit decreases. This study aims at developing an economic welfare maximization model by taking the incentive reward institution into account. The model was applied to a real bus company in Hokkaido, Japan, and some alternative scenarios for the company were evaluated in terms of the economic welfare.
• A Simplified Network Model for Travel Time Reliability Analysis in a Road Network

  Kenetsu Uchida, Teppei Kato

  Journal of Advanced Transportation 2017 1 - 17 0197-6729 2017 [Refereed][Not invited]
   

  © 2017 Kenetsu Uchida and Teppei Kato. This paper proposes a simplified network model which analyzes travel time reliability in a road network. A risk-averse driver is assumed in the simplified model. The risk-averse driver chooses a path by taking into account both a path travel time variance and a mean path travel time. The uncertainty addressed in this model is that of traffic flows (i.e., stochastic demand flows). In the simplified network model, the path travel time variance is not calculated by considering all travel time covariance between two links in the network. The path travel time variance is calculated by considering all travel time covariance between two adjacent links in the network. Numerical experiments are carried out to illustrate the applicability and validity of the proposed model. The experiments introduce the path choice behavior of a risk-neutral driver and several types of risk-averse drivers. It is shown that the mean link flows calculated by introducing the risk-neutral driver differ as a whole from those calculated by introducing several types of risk-averse drivers. It is also shown that the mean link flows calculated by the simplified network model are almost the same as the flows calculated by using the exact path travel time variance.
• Travel Time Reliability Estimation Model Using Observed Link Flows in a Road Network

  Kenetsu Uchida

  Computer-Aided Civil and Infrastructure Engineering 30 (6) 449 - 463 1093-9687 2015/06/01 [Refereed][Not invited]
   

  © 2015 Computer-Aided Civil and Infrastructure Engineering. This article formulates a model that calculates travel time reliability in a road network. The sources of uncertainty addressed by the model are traffic capacity and travel demand. Because travel time reliability estimation problem, in general, is formulated as a path-based problem, path enumeration can be required in advance. Thus, the path travel time reliability can depend on a path set enumerated in advance. For the purpose of determining the unique travel time reliability, a model that estimates stochastic path flows by using observed link flows is then presented. This method does not require predefined path set. However, this method is similar to the standard maximum likelihood (ML) estimation method, the method presented in this study is easier to be solved because the number of unknown parameters is much smaller than that of the standard ML estimation method. Numerical experiments using two networks are carried out to demonstrate the model presented in this article.
• A stochastic multimodal reliable network design problem under adverse weather conditions

  Kenetsu Uchida, Agachai Sumalee, H. W. Ho

  Journal of Advanced Transportation 49 (1) 73 - 95 0197-6729 2015/01/01 [Refereed][Not invited]
   

  Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. This paper formulates a network design problem (NDP) for finding the optimal public transport service frequencies and link capacity expansions in a multimodal network with consideration of impacts from adverse weather conditions. The proposed NDP aims to minimize the sum of expected total travel time, operational cost of transit services, and construction cost of link capacity expansions under an acceptable level of variance of total travel time. Auto, transit, bus, and walking modes are considered in the multimodal network model for finding the equilibrium flows and travel times. In the proposed network model, demands are assumed to follow Poisson distribution, and weather-dependent link travel time functions are adopted. A probit-based stochastic user equilibrium, which is based on the perceived expected travel disutility, is used to determine the multimodal route of the travelers. This model also considers the strategic behavior of the public transport travelers in choosing their routes, that is, common-line network. Based on the stochastic multimodal model, the mean and variance of total travel time are analytical estimated for setting up the NDP. A sensitivity-based solution algorithm is proposed for solving the NDP, and two numerical examples are adopted to demonstrate the characteristics of the proposed model.
• Effects of satellite office and transport improvement on a regional economics

  宇佐美 洋夢, 加藤 哲平, 内田 賢悦

  交通工学研究発表会論文集 交通工学研究会 35 525 - 530 1884-300X 2015 [Refereed][Not invited]
  
• Estimating the value of travel time and of travel time reliability in road networks

  Kenetsu Uchida

  Transportation Research Part B: Methodological 66 129 - 147 0191-2615 2014/08 [Refereed][Not invited]
   

  This study proposes two network models which simultaneously estimate the value of travel time and of travel time reliability based on the risk-averse driver's route choice behavior. The first model is formulated as a utility maximization problem under monotonic and separable link travel times, whereas the second model is formulated as a utility maximization problem under non-monotonic and non-separable link travel times. The proposed models have the same structure as a user equilibrium (UE) traffic assignment problem with elastic demand. It is shown that the first model, which addresses independent stochastic capacity, is formulated as an optimization problem with a unique solution and is solved by using an algorithm for a UE traffic assignment problem with fixed demand. The second model, which addresses both stochastic Origin-Destination (O-D) flow and stochastic link capacity, is formulated as a nonlinear complementary problem. O-D demand functions formulated in the proposed models are derived from the utility maximization behavior of the driver in the network. Therefore, the network models proposed in this study are consistent with those of studies that address the value of travel time and of travel time reliability based on utility maximization behavior without considering the driver's route choice. Numerical experiments are carried out to demonstrate the models presented in this study. © 2014 Elsevier Ltd.
• A study on a household's behavior choice model considering a woman

  中筋由佳, 杉木直, 内田賢悦, 田村亨

  交通工学研究発表会論文集(CD-ROM) 交通工学研究会 34 661 - 665 1884-300X 2014/08 [Refereed][Not invited]
  
• Economical welfare maximisation analysis: Assessing the use of existing Park-and-Ride services

  Yusuke Kono, Kenetsu Uchida, Katia Andrade

  Transportation 41 (4) 839 - 854 0049-4488 2014/07 [Refereed][Not invited]
   

  This paper assesses travellers' responses to the use of existing Park-and-Ride (P&R) services based on an economical welfare maximisation approach. Specifically, the paper presents a modelling framework to estimate consumer surplus and producer surplus (business profits) on the basis of modal choice probabilities. The paper draws on evidence from Stated Preference surveys conducted around two P&R sites in Sapporo, Japan, where P&R services occupy a modest market space. Overall, the results suggest that business profit increases when economical welfare is maximised, as a consequence of increased demand. It is also shown that P&R choice is not only influenced by parking fees, but also by the fares and other attributes of alternative transportation modes. Accordingly, the interactions of P&R with alternative transportation modes should be taken into consideration in any strategic transportation policies oriented towards motivating sustainable transport mode choices. © 2013 Springer Science+Business Media New York.
• Influence of family safety information availability and shelter conditions on the behaviour of earthquake stranded commuters:

  Andrade, K, Uchida, K, Sasaki, M

  Asian Transport Studies 3 2014 [Refereed][Not invited]
  
• Travel demand estimation risk for high-speed railway transport considering travel price competition

  Kenetsu Uchida, Nao Sugiki

  Journal of Advanced Transportation 47 (8) 737 - 750 0197-6729 2013/12 [Refereed][Not invited]
   

  SUMMARY The Hokkaido Shinkansen (HS) bullet train line is under consideration to open in 2020. In this study, travel demand is estimated for the HS. Because some explanatory variables that are used for such estimation can have estimation errors, travel demand estimation risk is also calculated. In addition, because the HS can compete with airlines for modal share, the impacts of travel price competition (TPC) on the travel demand and the demand estimation risk are also estimated. In this study, the travel demand estimation risk is measured as the variance or the SD of the stochastic travel demand. The analysis reveals the following: the modal share of HS is 16% less when TPC is considered than when it is not considered; TPC causes the travel demand estimation risk to decrease; the probabilities of the HS operating at a deficit with and without consideration of TPC are calculated as 31.2% and 1.25%, respectively, and the increase in the mean consumer surplus accruing from the HS is calculated as JPY 47bn/year ($US588m/year) without TPC and as JPY 66bn/year ($US825m/year) with TPC. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
• 回遊行動シミュレーションモデルによる都心部整備効果分析に関する研究

  高田淳司, 内田賢悦, 杉木直

  交通工学研究発表会論文集(CD-ROM) 交通工学研究会 33 515 - 522 1884-300X 2013/09 [Refereed][Not invited]
  
• ISSUES AND FUTURE PROSPECT TOWARD PRACTICE OF BENEFIT EVALUATION CONSIDERING TRAVEL TIME RELIABILITY

  UCHIDA Ken-etsu

  Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. D3 (Infrastructure Planning and Management) 公益社団法人 土木学会 69 (5) I_15 - I_29 2185-6540 2013 [Not refereed][Invited]
   

  In this study, factors which have an influence on travel time reliability in road network are clarified. Estimation models associated with benefit evaluation considering travel time reliability are then presented. The models presented in this study have been selected mainly from the models developed by the author. Conditions which should be satisfied by the benefit estimation models are presented next. Finally, issues and future prospect toward practice of benefit evaluation considering travel time reliability in road network are presented.
• Estimation of value of travel time and travel time reliability for heterogeneous drivers in road network

  T. Kato, K. Uchida, T. Tamura

  Proceedings of the 18th International Conference of Hong Kong Society for Transportation Studies, HKSTS 2013 - Travel Behaviour and Society 123 - 130 2013 [Refereed][Not invited]
   

  Recently, some analytical models which address both values of travel time travel time reliability based on utility maximization principle have been proposed. Uchida (2012) proposed two network models which estimate both the values of travel time and the travel time reliability. The network models proposed in Uchida (2012) are consistent with the studies which address the values of travel time and travel time reliability based on utility maximization behavior without considering the driver's route choice. This study aims at improving a model proposed in Uchida (2012) such that the one can estimate the values of travel time and travel time reliability specific to each Origin-Destination (O-D) pairs in a road network. The model will be formulated as a multi-class UE traffic assignment problem with elastic demand. Numerical experiments are carried out for demonstrating the model developed in this study.
• 二車線道路における追越車線設置効果に関する基礎的研究，地域学研究

  内田賢悦, 加賀屋誠一

  地域学研究 41 (4) 1001 - 1014 2012 [Refereed][Not invited]
  
• 多地域応用一般均衡分析を用いた高速鉄道整備による経済効果の計測

  杉木直, 内田賢悦

  第32回交通工学研究発表会論文集 537 - 544 2012 [Refereed][Not invited]
  
• TRAVEL ESTIMATION RISK FOR RAILWAY TRANSPORT

  Kenetsu Uchida, Nao Sugiki

  Journal of Advanced Transportation n/a - n/a 2012 [Refereed][Not invited]
   

  Kenetsu Uchida, Nao Sugiki, 2012, 'TRAVEL ESTIMATION RISK FOR RAILWAY TRANSPORT', <i>Journal of Advanced Transportation</i>, pp. n/a-n/a
• A model evaluating effect of disaster warning issuance conditions on "cry wolf syndrome" in the case of a landslide.

  Kenetsu Uchida

  Eur. J. Oper. Res. 218 (2) 530 - 537 0377-2217 2012 [Refereed][Not invited]
   

  This study proposes a model that clarifies how disaster warning issuance conditions affect "cry wolf' syndrome. The disaster assumed in this study is landslide caused by heavy rainfall. Local authorities that issue disaster warnings are thought to tend to avoid the situation where casualty occurs without the issuance to residents of a disaster warning. As a result, the issuance conditions may be relaxed. Under this circumstance, however, the residents are thought to tend to ignore disaster warnings, since such warnings are inaccurate. Thus may emerge the "cry wolf' syndrome. In this study, a simulation model that expresses the behaviors of the local authority and the residents has been developed. For the purpose of demonstrating the model, numerical experiments were then carried out. In the numerical experiments, the effects of optimal issuance conditions for disaster warnings on the cost incurred by the resident were evaluated by using assumed parameters for the model. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
• Stochastic multi-modal transport network under demand uncertainties and adverse weather condition

  Agachai Sumalee, Kenetsu Uchida, William H.K. Lam

  Transportation Research Part C: Emerging Technologies 19 (2) 338 - 350 0968-090X 2011/04 [Refereed][Not invited]
   

  This paper proposes a multi-modal transport network assignment model considering uncertainties in both demand and supply sides of the network. These uncertainties are due to adverse weather conditions with different degrees of impacts on different modes. The paper provides the derivations of mean and variance-covariance of the stochastic passenger flows and dis-utility terms involved in the route/mode choice model under the common-line framework. The risk-averse travelers are assumed to consider both the mean and variance of the random perceived travel time on each multi-modal path in their path choice decisions. The model also considers travelers' perception errors by using a Probit stochastic user equilibrium framework which is formulated as fixed point problem. A heuristic solution algorithm is proposed to solve the fixed point problem. Numerical examples are presented to illustrate the applications of the proposed model. © 2010 Elsevier Ltd.
• STUDY ON INFLUENCES OF ROAD NETWORK CONSTRUCTION IN THE WESTERN AREA OF CHINA ON LOCAL INDUSTRY

  Chun Yan, Uchida Kenetsu

  SOCIOTECHNICA 社会技術研究会 8 (8) 29 - 36 1349-0184 2011 [Refereed][Not invited]
   

  Road construction plays an important role in the Great Development of Western China. Many researches have been carried out by focusing on the influence of road construction on industrial structure and regional development. This paper studies the causality between the road network construction and its effects on regional industry structure, regional economy development, and industry changes. This study points out that the regions with high commuting rate have significant growth effects on economy and industry structure. Road construction promotes the development of regional growth and the adjustment of industrial structure. This study also suggests that the connection between the main production place and the main consumption place should be strengthened so as to promote the development of the regional economy.
• Evaluation of toll free expressway policy in Japan by using a general equilibrium model, Journal of the Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies

  Uchida, K, Sugiki, N

  Journal of the Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies 9 114 - 125 2011 [Refereed][Not invited]
   

  This paper examines the effects of toll free policy for expressways which is to be introduced in Japan. A model that is developed by combining a general equilibrium model of a multi-city economy and deterministic user equilibrium traffic assignment model is applied for examining the effects of the toll free policy. In the model, cities are linked by a road network including toll expressways. It is shown that the toll free policy applied to all of the expressways in Hokkaido, Japan brings about the social welfare of 31.2 [billion JPY/year], and that applied to some part of expressways where traffic congestion rarely occurs brings about the social welfare of 41.2 [billion JPY/year]. The social welfares presented in this study are calculated from the utility levels of households in the economy.
• Multi-agent simulation to uncertain civilian return trips during a hypothetical earthquake

  Seiichi Kagaya, Yukako Ishiguro, Ken Etsu Uchida

  Vulnerability, Uncertainty, and Risk: Analysis, Modeling, and Management - Proceedings of the ICVRAM 2011 and ISUMA 2011 Conferences 104 - 112 2011 [Refereed][Not invited]
   

  After Hanshin-Awaji huge earthquake disaster in 1994, it has been important for Japanese local Government to build a comprehensive evacuation program of a large earthquake occurrence. In this program, it is substantial to give appropriate information on human behavior for the evacuation time. Thus, a new methodology based on behavior-oriented agent system should be developed. In this study, the production rules of the attributive groups were constructed in terms of the questionnaire survey for civilian return-trips from the working or the shopping places during earthquake disaster. Next, using the set of production rules composed of the questionnaire data, a multi-agent system model for return trips in a hypothetical large-scaled earthquake was built by a MAS method. It comes to the conclusion that the human behaviors during the earthquake impact were constructed by multi-agent system model and the possibility of the return-home was found in view of the conditions of the roads and the human attributes. Copyright © ASCE 2011.
• Evaluation of the Level of Winter Road Maintenance ConsideringTravel Time Reliability

  HASHIMOTO Nobuyuki, UCHIDA Kenetsu, KAGAYA Seiichi

  Studies in Regional Science 日本地域学会 41 (3) 695 - 704 0287-6256 2011 [Refereed][Not invited]
   

  In cold regions, winter road maintenance is very important for securing both social and economical activities. Therefore, road management authorities spend large amounts of money on winter road maintenance. Winter road maintenance reduces mean travel time and strengthens travel time reliability, but an evaluation of the efficiency of winter road maintenance has not been carried out. Possible effects of winter road maintenance include improvement in travel time, travel cost, carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and travel time reliability. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the level of winter road maintenance by applying a stochastic user equilibrium assignment model, which we developed, with traffic capacity of a road expressed as a random variable, i.e. normal distribution. The resultant travel time of a route in a road network is expressed as a random variable. Mean travel time, travel cost, CO2 emissions, and travel time reliability were then chosen as the evaluation indexes for winter road maintenance. Using the variance of random route travel time, evaluation of travel time reliability can be determined. In cold regions, the effect of ‘travel time reliability' is thought to be an indispensable index. Previous studies have not attempted to quantify the effect of travel time reliability due to both the lack of winter traffic data and the absence of adequate network models that can address the uncertainty of travel time under winter traffic conditions. In this study, mean traffic capacity, the variance of traffic capacity and free flow velocity were assumed to change depending on the level of winter road maintenance. This study evaluates three road conditions, conditions in summer, conditions in winter i.e. present road conditions in winter, and conditions where the level of winter road maintenance for the national roads is decreased to the level for other types of roads. The road network used in this study was the whole road network in Hokkaido, Japan, the numbers of links and nodes in the network are 7,167 and 4,619, respectively. A slight increase in the CO2 emission costs compared with the present winter conditions was estimated when the level of winter road maintenance was decreased. As for the travel time reliability, there was a large difference when compared with the total travel costs. If the level of winter road maintenance decreases, an estimated total loss of 102.05 billion yen per year will occur.
  
  JEL Classification: R42, R48
• EQUILIBRIUM TRAFFIC ASSIGNMENT MODELS WITH VARIABLE DEMAND CONSIDERING TRAVEL TIME RELIABILITY

  UCHIDA Kenetsu

  Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. D3 (Infrastructure Planning and Management) 公益社団法人 土木学会 67 (1) 60 - 69 2185-6540 2011 [Refereed][Not invited]
   

   In this study, equilibrium assignment models under variable demand considering travel time reliability are proposed. These models are developed based on the system optimal and the user equilibrium principles with the constraints on the travel time reliability. Since these models can be formulated as the problems that have the same mathematical structure as the standard equilibrium assignment models under variable demand, one can apply these models to a large-scaled traffic network. Numerical experiment is carried out for examining the validity of the propo sed models.
• 積雪寒冷地における道路除雪がCO2排出量に与える影響に関する研究

  門口祐樹, 石田眞二, 内田賢悦, 杉木直

  環境システム研究論文集 38 333 - 339 2010/10 [Refereed][Not invited]
  
• Reliability-based traffic assignment model considering mixed traffic flow of autonomous-connected vehicles and human-driven vehicles

  Ryuichi Tani, Kenetsu Uchida

  Proceedings of the 24th International Conference of Hong Kong Society for Transportation Studies, HKSTS 2019: Transport and Smart Cities 237 - 244 2010 [Refereed][Not invited]
   

  © 2010 23th International Conference on Architecture of Computing Systems 2010, ARCS 2010 - Workshop Proceedings. All rights reserved. This study proposes a travel-time-reliability-based traffic assignment model that considers mixed traffic flow of autonomous-connected vehicles (ACVs) and human-driven vehicles (HVs). The objective of our study is to analyze the impacts of penetration rate of ACVs on total travel time of whole road network by solving link-based traffic assignment problem. This study assumes that HVs and ACVs are assigned to the road network following user equilibrium principle and system optimal principle, respectively. We also assume that HVs take risk-averse path choice behavior and that ACVs take risk-averse system optimal behavior. The proposed traffic assignment problem is formulated as a variational inequality problem. We demonstrate the proposed model in a test network. Finally, we conclude this paper and show some future perspectives.
• EVALUATION OF TOLL FREE EXPRESSWAY POLICY BY USING A MULTI-REGIONAL APPLIED GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM MODEL

  Kenetsu Uchida, Nao Sugiki

  TRANSPORTATION AND URBAN SUSTAINABILITY 461 - 468 2010 [Refereed][Not invited]
   

  This paper examines the effects of toll free policy for expressways which is to be introduced in Japan. A model that is developed by combining a general equilibrium model of a multi-city economy and deterministic user equilibrium traffic assignment model is applied for examining the effects of the toll free policy. In the model, cities are linked by a road network including toll expressways. In the economy, there are many industrial sectors. General equilibrium model determines industrial location (i.e., type of industry, level of output in each city), inter-city trade patterns, wages, prices of goods, land rent, and the utility level of each household. In this model, goods itself is consumed in the transportation of the goods. The amount of goods consumed in the transportation of the goods is proportional to general travel time which is travel time plus toll divided by the value of time. General travel time is calculated by deterministic user equilibrium model. Numerical simulations are carried out to examine the effects of the toll free policy on the welfare of households. It is shown that the toll free policy applied to all of the expressways in Hokkaido, Japan brings about the social welfare of 31.2 [billion JPY/year], and that applied to some part of expressways where traffic congestion rarely occurs brings about the social welfare of 41.2 [billion JPY/year]. The social welfares presented in this study are calculated from the utility levels of households in the economy. Note that, the decrease in the revenue of expressway operating company when the toll free policy is applied to all of the expressways is estimated as 40 [billion JPY/year]. However this is cancelled out by the decrease in the toll expenses by the households in the economy. Thus, the social welfares presented in this study are those brought by the toll free policy for expressways without considering the effect of environmental impacts.
• A STUDY ON IMPACT OF STOCHASTIC TRAFFIC CAPACITY ON TRAVEL TIMES OF A ROAD NETWORK

  UCHIDA Kenetsu

  Doboku Gakkai Ronbunshuu D 公益社団法人 土木学会 66 (4) 431 - 441 1880-6058 2010 [Refereed][Not invited]
   

    In this study, a model which estimates stochastic traffic capacity from observed traffic data is presented. Stochastic capacities during winter and summer in cold region are then estimated by using observed traffic data by a model which is also presented in the present study. A traffic assignment model which has been developed by the authors is used for examining the impact of stochastic capacity on travel times in a road network.
• STOCHASTIC MULTI-MODAL TRANSPORT NETWORK UNDER DEMAND UNCERTAINTIES AND ADVERSE WEATHER CONDITION

  Agachai Sumalee, Kenetsu Uchida, William H. K. Lam

  18TH INTERNATIONAL SYMPOSIUM ON TRANSPORTATION AND TRAFFIC THEORY 19 - 41 2009 [Refereed][Not invited]
   

  This paper proposes a novel multi-modal transport network assignment model considering uncertainties in both demand and supply sides of the network. These uncertainties are mainly due to adverse weather conditions with different degrees of impacts on different modes. The paper provides the derivation of mean and variance-covariance of stochastic passenger flows and dis-utility terms involved in the route/mode choice model under the common-line framework. The risk-averse travelers are assumed to consider both an average and uncertainty of the random perceived travel time on each multi-modal path in their path choice decisions. The model also considers travelers' perception errors using a Probit stochastic user equilibrium framework formulated as fixed point problem. A heuristic solution algorithm is proposed for solving the fixed point problem. Numerical examples are presented to illustrate the applications of the proposed model.
• USER EQUILIBRIUM ASSIGNMENT MODELS UNDER STOCHASTIC DEMAND AND SUPPLY WITH PERCEPTION ERROR

  UCHIDA Kenetsu

  Doboku Gakkai Ronbunshuu D 公益社団法人 土木学会 65 (3) 386 - 398 2009 [Refereed][Not invited]
   

    In this study, user equilibrium assignment models under stochastic demand and supply with perception error on route costs are proposed. The user equilibrium assignment models can be formulated as stochastic user equilibrium (SUE) if taking into account the perception error and deterministic user equilibrium (DUE) otherwise. Evaluation factors for route choice assumed in this study are mean of travel time and its standard deviation. If standard deviation is taken into account in DUE, corresponding user equilibrium model is formulated as a nonlinear complementary problem due to non additive route cost. Numerical experiments are carried out to examine the solutions from the user equilibrium models proposed in this study.
• A syudy on network parking management system considering efficiency of network

  Kazuya Motonami, Ken'etsu Uchida, Seiichi Kagaya, Toru Hagiwara

  15th World Congress on Intelligent Transport Systems and ITS America Annual Meeting 2008 1 502 - 513 2008 [Refereed][Not invited]
   

  In this study, a valuation model was developed to assist in controlling illegal on-street parking. The model determined the road sections in a road network where on-site regulation was placed so that the total travel time could be minimized subject to a given number of regulated links. This regulation will recover traffic capacity since the parking violator abandons parking or moves vehicle to an unregulated link. It is natural to assume that the passage driver in the network changes route choice in response to the changes in the travel time brought by the recovery of traffic capacity. Therefore, the route choice behavior of the passage driver in response to the on-site regulation was expressed by the deterministic user equilibrium (DUE). In addition to that, parking road section choice behavior of the parking violator in response to the regulation was also expressed in the model. The model formulated in this study was a combinatorial optimization problem subject to the DUE condition. A numerical experiment was carried out to demonstrate the results from the model. From the results, it was clarified that the continuity of road sections with high capacities was the key property for selecting regulated ones.
• A study on winter road maintenance problem considering both efficiency and equity in cold regions

  Kenetsu Uchida, Mikiharu Arimura, Seiichi Kagaya

  Proceedings of the 13th International Conference of Hong Kong Society for Transportation Studies: Transportation and Management Science 207 - 216 2008 [Refereed][Not invited]
   

  This study presents a framework for evaluating snow disposal operation of winter road maintenance. The outcome indexes addressed in the present study are efficiency and equity. Problems for the snow disposal planning are then formulated as bi-level programs in which the response of the traveler, i.e. route choice behavior, due to the snow disposal work is expressed by the deterministic user equilibrium (DUE) principle with variable demand in the lower-level problem, whereas some objective functions are optimized in the upper-level problem. The objective functions in the present study are created by net benefit which expresses the efficiency of a road network and the Gini coefficient which expresses the equity. An algorithm developed by combining the genetic algorithm with a standard algorithm for DUE is applied for solving the problems. Results obtained using a test network calculated by assuming fixed OD demand flows are lastly presented.
• Proposition of a Plan for Improvement in Data Envelopment Analysis Considering Interactions between Inputs and Outputs

  UCHIDA Kenetsu, KAGAYA Seiichi, SASAKI Keiichi

  Studies in Regional Science 日本地域学会 38 (2) 279 - 293 0287-6256 2008 [Refereed][Not invited]
   

  Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) is a method for measuring efficiency of a Decision Making Unit (DMU) by taking into account its characteristics. One of the feature emphasized in DEA is the capability of providing an improvement plan that makes an inefficient DMU efficient. It is assumed that all evaluation items can change independently in the calculation of an improvement plan. However, this assumption may not be realistic. Normally, some interactions between evaluation items should be assumed and the interaction may be described by equilibrium conditions. If this assumption does not hold, any improvement plans from DEA may not be applicable to a real problem since the improvement plans are impossible to carry out. In this study, a method for calculating improvements in a plan that allows interactions, including equilibrium conditions that are difficult to denote by closed forms, between evaluation items is proposed. Taylor's first order expansion is used to approximate the interactions between evaluation items. If the interactions are expressed by linear functions, a problem that calculates an improvement plan is formulated as a nonlinear optimization problem with some constraints. In addition, a standard algorithm for solving nonlinear optimization problems can be applied to calculate the improvement plan due to convexity of an objective function and the constraints formulated. On the other hand, if the interactions are not expressed by linear functions or are expressed by equilibrium conditions, a problem for calculating an improvement plan is formulated as a fixed point problem. An algorithm for the fixed point problem is developed based on Kuhn-Tucker conditions. Lastly, two simple numerical examples are presented in this paper.
  
  JEL Classification: C61, C67
• A study on network design problems for multi-modal networks by probit-based stochastic user equilibrium

  Kenetsu Uchida, Agachai Sumalee, David Watling, Richard Connors

  Networks and Spatial Economics 7 (3) 213 - 240 1566-113X 2007/09 [Refereed][Not invited]
   

  This paper develops a multi-modal transport network model considering various travel modes including railway, bus, auto, and walking. Travellers are assumed to choose their multi-modal routes so as to minimise their perceived disutilities of travel following the Probit Stochastic User Equilibrium (SUE) condition. Factors influencing the disutility of a multi-modal route include actual travel times, discomfort on transit systems, expected waiting times, fares, and constants specific to transport modes. The paper then deals with the multi-modal network design problem (NDP). The paper employs the method of sensitivity analysis to define linear approximation functions between the Probit SUE link flows and the design parameters, which are then used as constraints in the sub-problem of the NDP instead of the original SUE condition. Based on this reformulated NDP, an efficient algorithm for solving the problem is proposed in the paper. Two instances of this general NDP formulation are then presented in the paper: the optimal frequency design problem for public transport services (FDP), and the anti-freezing admixture dispersion problem (AADP). © Springer Science+Business Media, LLC 2006.
• EVALUATION OF SPEED LIMIT ON HOKKAIDO ROADS

  THANESUEN Suthipun, KAGAYA Seiichi, UCHIDA Ken-etsu, HAGIWARA Toru

  Journal of the Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies 7 2799 - 2813 2007 

  Speed limit is currently one of the most controversial topics in Japan as the Japanese National Police Agency has planned to revise the speed limit regulation. Traffic accident analysis and questionnaire survey will be included in their 3-year study plan. However, this study focuses only on the questionnaire survey on Hokkaido roads. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the speed limits on Hokkaido roads by applying trade-off analysis. Trade-off questions between accessibility (speed limit) and safety were applied to show the reflection of publicity. The comparison between speed limits from direct questions and trade-off questions were made. In conclusion, the study found that speed limits during summer period are not appropriate while winter speed limits should be raised. In order to enhance road safety in Hokkaido, the study recommends that the stringent speed enforcement and management should be incorporated with the new speed limit.
• INVESTIGATING THE TEMPORAL TRANSFERABILITY OF TRANSPORT MODAL CHOICE MODELS:

  ANDRADE Katia, KAGAYA Seiichi, UCHIDA Kenetsu, DANTAS Andre, NICHOLSON Alan

  Journal of the Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies 7 470 - 485 2007 

  Developing precise travel behavior models and testing its forecasting capability are essential when planning transportation systems. However, emphasis is observed in estimating while forecasting still needs to be better understood. This study examines the temporal transferability of a Multinomial Logit Model and a hybrid Neuro-Fuzzy Multinomial Logit model, which differ primarily by including linear and non-linear utilities. Geographic Information System is successfully used during the forecasting process. Overall, the hybrid model presents better performance, even though both models do not show satisfactory behavior when directly transferred to the application context. Small sample model results show good behavior of the hybrid model. Accordingly, a sensitivity analysis suggests this model is able to capture travelers’ sensitivity to parking cost variations, which is not well described by the classical model. Travelers’ behavior could be better explained by the hybrid model rather than by the classical Multinomial Logit structure.
• Optimal winter speed limit

  Suthipun Thanesuen, Seiichi Kagaya, Ken Etsu Uchida, Toru Hagiwara

  48th Annual Transportation Research Forum 2007 1 354 - 369 2007 [Refereed][Not invited]
   

  Nowadays, there is no exact method for determining the optimal speed limit in winter and the problems associated with winter speed limit has not yet been addressed in Hokkaido. Therefore, this study aims at determining the optimal winter speed limit through the application of a cost analysis and by analysis of effects of road and traffic conditions. Initially, a cost analysis of travel time costs, vehicle operating costs, pollution costs, and cost of accidents was applied to determine optimal average speed on the basis of the minimum total cost. Then, the effects of road and traffic conditions were calculated by regression analysis. Finally, the optimal winter speed limits were achieved by adding those effects to the optimal average speed. For the purpose of reliability, we applied a sensitivity analysis to the model. We found that our model was reliable and the results are appropriate and sustainable long term.
• Analysis of human behavior representation in the central business district of sapporo using a multi-agent simulation

  Seiichi Kagaya, Takashi Atsuki, Kenetsu Uchida

  Studies in Regional Science 37 (2) 519 - 534 0287-6256 2007 [Refereed][Not invited]
   

  Nowadays it has become increasingly popular to introduce new techniques for representing complex human behavior in determining the characteristics of pedestrian or car traffic. A typical technique is multi-agent simulation, developed in the frame of complexity studies. Meanwhile, in several larger cities, it has been common practice to redevelop urban functions in downtown areas in an innovative manner. If the downtown area is renewed, various visitors are attracted here causing numbers of pedestrians or car users to change rapidly and widely. Sometimes congestion is increasing in such a way that the commercial center is removed to a newly developed area. The objective of this study is to construct a behavioral model of visitors in downtown areas based on a multi-agent system. Specifically, a questionnaire survey is carried out among the people who visit the downtown area during holiday. The results are applied to construct basic rule-based behavior of an agent. The rules are focused on the relation between the visitor's behavior and the environment. Each agent acts on the map including geographical information. In addition, the change of pedestrian behavior corresponding to the spatial environment changes is also examined by use of specific data on them. Moreover, an actual behavior survey was executed simultaneously. As a result, it was found that the estimated behavior by simulation corresponded with the actual case. Using this simulation model, some scenario analyses could be examined. The future situation after redevelopment in the downtown area can be simulated on the basis of the state before the redevelopment. Finally, the possibility of application of multi-agent simulation models was provided for various types of human behavior, such as the estimation of evacuation following an earthquake disaster, the estimation of commuters' activities in rush hour and so on. © 2007, JAPAN SECTION OF THE REGIONAL SCIENCE ASSOCIATION INTERNATIONAL. All rights reserved.
• A study on the temporal transferability of transport modal choice models

  Katia Andrade, Seiichi Kagaya, Kenetsu Uchida, Andre Dantas, Alan Nicholson

  Studies in Regional Science 37 (3) 887 - 899 0287-6256 2007 [Refereed][Not invited]
   

  Understanding individual modal choice decisions is fundamental when developing and planning transportation systems. Developing precise travel behavior models and testing their forecasting capabilities also have an important role. This study provides empirical analysis of the temporal transferability of Multinomial Logit and Neuro-Fuzzy Multinomial Logit models. In the estimation context, the results of the models are compared with the actual modal choices to investigate their accuracy. In the application context, the evaluation of the models is based on predictive performances, where models re-calibrated from a small data sample and models transferred from the estimation context are evaluated. Accordingly, a sensitivity analysis that aims to examine travelers’ behavior under the transportation system changes is presented. Overall, the Neuro-Fuzzy Multinomial Logit model performs better than the Multinomial Logit model. However, both models do not show satisfactory forecasting behavior when directly transferred to the application context. The classical Logit model is not able to correctly represent the influence of Parking Cost on modal choices, although this attribute is identified as statistically important for modeling modal choices. However, the neuro-fuzz model has shown that travelers are very sensitive to variations on parking fees, which was implemented as a strategic policy action so as to motivate changes in travelers’ behavior towards sustainable transport modes. The results of this study suggest that travelers’ behavior could be better explained by incorporating the neuro-fuzzy utility functions into the Multinomial Logit model rather than using the classical Multinomial Logit structure. © 2007, JAPAN SECTION OF THE REGIONAL SCIENCE ASSOCIATION INTERNATIONAL. All rights reserved.
• Sustainable Speed Limit with Optimal user Life Cycle Cost

  Suthipun Thanesuen, Ken etsu Uchida

  Studies in Regional Science 36 (2) 487 - 501 0287-6256 2006 [Refereed][Not invited]
   

  According to road users, the speed limits in Hokkaido, Japan are considered unsuitable. Therefore, this study was undertaken to determine a better speed limit, which would be more efficient, in other words, a sustainable speed limit, by applying user life cycle cost (user LCC). User LCC is composed of cost from travel time, vehicle operating cost (VOC), emitted pollution (CO2, NOx and noise), accidental cost, and congestion cost. The costs from travel time here were inversely proportional to the travelling speed. For VOC and cost from emitted pollution, the highest costs were generated while drivers were travelling at a too high or too low speed. The accidental cost was directly proportional to travelling speed. Lastly, the congestion cost was introduced to make the model more reliable and useful even though it is not a serious problem in Hokkaido. Here, the sustainable speed limit was calculated as the speed that has the lowest user LCC. Costs were calculated in units of yen per kilometre per day. The results showed that urban national highways had the highest costs while the rural national highways had the lowest cost. The sustainable speed limits could be 10 km/h higher than present speed limits on urban national highways, rural national highways and urban expressways, except for rural expressways that was 10 km/h lower. However, due to limitation of data, the results may not contribute towards the sustainability to the environment and city effectively. Moreover, in the future, if traffic volume and other costs change, it is recommended that the sustainable speed limit be reconsidered. © 2006, JAPAN SECTION OF THE REGIONAL SCIENCE ASSOCIATION INTERNATIONAL. All rights reserved.
• Evaluation Method on Perception of Quality of Life in Terms of Urban Transportation System Improvement

  Seiichi Kagaya, Ken etsu Uchida

  Studies in Regional Science 36 (2) 471 - 485 0287-6256 2006 [Refereed][Not invited]
   

  The increase of automobile traffic has always caused traffic congestion of downtown areas. This simultaneously generates environmental problems caused by automotive exhausts and an increase in traffic accidents. We should build a new comprehensive scheme of urban transportation based on the quality of life of the inhabitant to solve this problem. To this end, we propose the phased evaluation system for finding an appropriate plan in terms of quality of life. Firstly, we introduce the method of Conjoint Analysis to build the basic planning concept. In the next stage we design the outline of a downtown transportation plan using the obtained concept. By demonstrating this to the inhabitants we examine its acceptability. Finally the improvement in transportation conditions is analyzed by AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process) and examined for the possibility of visiting in downtown area. Actually, we applied these methods to the transportation plan for Sapporo, which is located in Hokkaido, Japan. As a result, inhabitants assessed some sustainable transportation measures. The differences and the tendencies in each district are clarified by use of Conjoint Analysis. Consequently, the residents do not all have consistent opinions towards the attributes on the sustainable transportation scheme. However, they preferred the step by step improvement over the drastic one. Thus, we proposed the new basic plan which we would execute over the period of ten years. Next, we evaluated the acceptability of the inhabitants to the plan in view of quality of life. As a result, the proposed new plan possesses a higher acceptability. In particular, residents accept the plan in terms of safety against traffic accidents. From this, we estimated that there would be a 34% increase in frequency for visits downtown after the scheme is completed. © 2006, JAPAN SECTION OF THE REGIONAL SCIENCE ASSOCIATION INTERNATIONAL. All rights reserved.
• Development of transport mode choice model by using adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system

  Katia Andrade, Kenetsu Uchida, Seiichi Kagaya

  Transportation Research Record 1977 (1977) 8 - 16 0361-1981 2006 [Refereed][Not invited]
   

  Developing precise travel behavior models is important for estimating traffic demand and, consequently, for planning transportation systems. A study is presented that suggests a hybrid model that combines a stochastic model with a neuro-fuzzy inference system. The model is applied for estimating traveler behavior in the context of the problem of transport mode choice. Particularly, the multinomial logit model with neurofuzzy utility functions is developed to investigate shopping traveler preferences regarding the modes of bus, subway, and automobile. The model is evaluated by comparing its results with the results of a multinomial logit model. Moreover, the probabilities of selecting a transport mode obtained by applying the two models are compared with the actual transport mode choices, which show better performance of the proposed model. In addition, the model demonstrates good performance by estimating a large number of right choices during the validation process. A sensitivity analysis demonstrates the influence of time variations of mode subway on the probabilities of selecting a transport mode. The analysis highlights different behaviors of the models caused by the different utility functions. The results confirm that the proposed model can describe uncertainties regarding traveler decisions on the time of transport mode choice.
• Development of life-cycle cost evaluation model for pavements considering drivers' route choices

  Kenetsu Uchida, Seiichi Kagaya

  Transportation Research Record 1985 (1985) 115 - 124 0361-1981 2006 [Refereed][Not invited]
   

  This study proposes a model for evaluating life-cycle cost (LCC) for pavements considering both driver's route choice behavior and repair. It is assumed that drivers change their route choices because of both the change in driving cost brought about by the deterioration of surface conditions on pavements and the change in traffic capacities due to repair work on pavements. The LCC minimization problem is formulated as the implicit program, in which LCC is minimized subject to the probitbased stochastic user equilibrium (PSUE), which expresses drivers' route choices. The solution algorithm for the LCC minimization problem developed by applying the sensitivity analysis technique for the PSUE is also presented. Last, the simple numerical results obtained by using the test network are shown.
• TRAFFIC MANAGEMENT IN TERMS OF SPEED LIMIT IN HOKKAIDO AREA

  THANESUEN Suthipun, KAGAYA Seiichi, UCHIDA Ken-etsu

  Journal of the Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies 6 2247 - 2262 2005 

  Speed limit is one of the traffic problems in Hokkaido due to unreasonable speed limit for both summer and winter. Based on questionnaires, the opinions from more than half of examinees have shown that speed limit of the roads in Hokkaido is too low and should be different in summer and winter. Then, this study is introduced to adjust speed limit reasonably, depending on road characteristics and road conditions. In this study, Free Flow Speed (FFS) equation is applied to calculate the speed limit in summer. For speed limit in winter, FFS and Stopping Sight Distance (SSD) equations are used. Most of the drivers are satisfied with the results. Moreover, speed limit on a circular curve is adjusted by the minimum radius of circular curve equation. However, these results should be verified in terms of safety and traffic efficiency to obtain the optimal speed limit.
• A STUDY ON THE STABILITY OF THE PROBIT-BASED MULTI-MODAL TRANSPORT ASSIGNMENT MODEL

  UCHIDA Kenetsu, WATLING David P., SUMALEE Agachai, KAGAYA Seiichi

  Journal of the Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies 6 107 - 118 2005 

  In this study, the properties on perturbation stability of stochastic dynamic processes are provided. The probit based multi-modal transport assignment model considered in this paper can have multiple equilibria because of the asymmetric link disutility functions. An examination on the uniqueness and stability of the multi-modal transport assignment model is carried out by using a simple example. The demand on a single OD pair is assumed to choose between bus and auto depending on their disutility functions. The examination is carried out by assuming the interaction effect of the road congestion caused by autos and buses. As the results, the following three findings are obtained: (i) if the condition on the uniqueness of solution is violated, in general, there are three solutions; (ii) one of three solutions is stable in terms of perturbation stability; and (iii) the trajectory of dynamic system is determined by the domains where each equilibrium dominates.
• AN APPLICATION OF MULTI-AGENT SIMULATION TO TRAFFIC BEHAVIOR FOR EVACUTION IN EARTHQUAKE DISASTER

  KAGAYA Seiichi, UCHIDA Ken-etsu, HAGIWARA Toru, NEGISHI Akihito

  Journal of the Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies 6 4224 - 4236 2005 

  After Hanshin-Awaji huge earthquake disaster in 1994, it has been important for urban disaster prevention to build a comprehensive evacuation program of a large earthquake occurrence. In this program, it is substantial to observe human behavior for the evacuation time. Thus, we should introduce a new methodology based on behavior-oriented agent system, that is, a multi-agent model. In this study, first of all, the production rules of the attributive groups were constructed on basis of the questionnaire survey for the inhabitants. Next, using the set of production rules, we developed a multi-agent system model for evacuation. An agent in this study is a person that can perceive its environment through sensors and decide the activity through effectors. We simulate multi-agent system in a district in Kushiro City of Hokkaido, Japan. Finally, we concluded to build the reproduction of the human traffic behaviors and their interactions during earthquake impact and to be simulated multi-agent model including seven agent groups obtained the results of questionnaire survey.
• Study on optimal frequency design problem for multimodal network using probit-based user equilibrium assignment

  Kenetsu Uchida, Agachai Sumalee, David Watling, Richard Connors

  Transportation Research Record 1923 (1923) 236 - 245 0361-1981 2005 [Refereed][Not invited]
   

  In this paper, a probit-based multimodal transport assignment model is developed. Three transport modes (railway system, bus system, and automobiles) and their interactions are considered. The walking time to a bus stop or a station also plays an important role in multimodal networks. Thus, walking to a bus stop or to a railway station is included in the model. The factors affecting travelers' route choices considered in this model include actual travel times, discomfort effects on transit systems, expected waiting times, fares, and constants specific to transport modes. A route in the model may be composed of different modes. The paper also deals with the optimal transit frequency design problem. The frequency design problem is formulated as an implicit program in which the objective function of total disutility in the multimodal network is minimized with respect to frequencies of transit lines. The flows on a multimodal network follow a probit-based stochastic user equilibrium assignment. A numerical example is presented.
• A Study on Public Transport Evaluation Method Using Multi-modal Traffic Assignment Applied Probit-Based SUE

  UCHIDA Kenetsu, KAGAYA Seiichi

  INFRASTRUCTURE PLANNING REVIEW 公益社団法人 土木学会 22 (22) 439 - 449 0913-4034 2005 [Refereed][Not invited]
   

  In this study, a probit-based public transport assignment model is developed.Three transport modes, i. e. railway system, bus and auto, are considered simultaneously in the model.Because there are interactions between the transport modes, e. g., the number of autos in a network heavily influences travel time of bus system, it is natural to consider these modes jointly. Public transport network design problem is also dealt with in this study.In the network design problem, the frequencies of public transport systems are optimized to minimize total disutility in the network.
• A Dialogue Method of Strategic Environmental Assessment for River Improvement Planning System

  KAGAYA Seiichi, UCHIDA Ken-etsu, ADACHI Takeo, NAKAYAMA Yoshimitsu

  Studies in Regional Science 日本地域学会 34 (1) 153 - 172 0287-6256 2003 [Refereed][Not invited]
   

  In 1997, Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport revised the River Act., and they newly add the aim of “the adjustment and preservation of the river environment” to those of “the flood control” and “the water use”. It is necessary to examine new methods for relating their opinions to the river improvement plan.
  Once the river policies promoted by the Old River Act improved inhabitant's living environment remarkably for a long time, and brought the expansion of the residential space widely. The river improvement projects contribute to the reduction of flood damage, when snow is melted in Hokkaido enormously. At the same time, the progress of the river improvement made association with the river estranged, and the improvement reduced the natural preservation ability.
  The new methodological purpose of the improvement and preservation of the river environment is included in the infrastructure that brings such affordability and comfort.
  The objective of this study is to adjust ideas of a river improvement plan, to propose the trial balloon and to examine a practical model to treat the concrete process of planning. The concrete decision process of a plan leads an approach to think about in terms of strategic environmental assessment (SEA).
  Here, the idea that makes the final agreement easily is proposed. Namely, the opinions and information can be exchanged with each other using three axes of planning process, that is, the administration process of decision-making, the participation process of community reflecting residents' opinions, and the adjusting process on such opinions and information. The workshop is available for constructing the interrelationship between administrative sector and inhabitants. We introduce some technical methods such as fuzzy structural modeling, conjoint analysis and fuzzy integral into the discussion in workshops.
  An example here is a river improvement plan in the middle stream of the Tokachi River.
  Through the planning systems, we conclude the following points:
  1) The comprehensive planning system leaded the issues of the river improvement projects to be developed.
  2) The contents and factors were founded due to discussions using Brain Storming, KJ method and FSM.
  3) The alternative plans to be completed by using some components of river improvement were selected by Conjoint Analysis and those plans are assessed due to a kind of Multicriteria Analysis, namely, Fuzzy Integral (Choquet's integral).
  4) Finally we can establish a stage where the complicated alternative plans are discussed and assessed. And then, we can also determine the appropriate plan smoothly in terms of such discussions.
• The Proposal of Consensus Building Support Method by use of Evaluation Wrights Adjustment Model and Relative Position Measurement Approach

  MORI Ayako, UCHIDA Ken-etsu, KAGAYA Seiichi

  Studies in Regional Science 日本地域学会 34 (1) 429 - 439 0287-6256 2003 [Refereed][Not invited]
   

  Recently, that it opens information to the inhabitant and that it sufficiently carries out the description are required in the public work. Therefore, questionnaire and workshop are done.
  In the workshop, the human of various feeling of value gathers. Then, there is a difference of the viewpoint to the theme. Discussion may not be smoothly carried out from this fact. In addition, it is difficult that the opinion of the group is put together.
  In such a case, the method of helping the summary of the opinion of a group is required.
  Then, the consensus building support method is proposed in this study. This has noticed the consensus building of the individual pair individual. Then, Relative Position Measurement Approach with the simple evaluation is used. Evaluation Wrights Adjustment Model is utilized as a correction method of the weight. By using this method, whether the evaluation person should adjustment what factor how much is proven. In addition, position data estimation method which deduced position data from the estimated result was proposed. It is shown by that the consensus building is smoothly carried out this method.
• Disaster Impact Analysis of limited access Roadways with Employment of Traffic Network Model: Mt. Usu Case

  TAKAHASHI Naoto, UCHIDA Kenetsu, KAGAYA Seiichi

  Studies in Regional Science 日本地域学会 34 (3) 17 - 29 0287-6256 2003 [Refereed][Not invited]
   

  The 2000 eruption of Mt. Usu, began following twenty three yeas of the inactive period, not only seriously damaged the surrounding area but also had a profound effect on socioeconomic activity in the entire Hokkaido region due to the disconnecting of the main transportation route linking to Japan's main island. As for the road network, the eruption cut off traffic on the “Douou” highway and Route 230 running through the Usu area and led to requiring access control along several roadways. Forcing road users to substantial detour resulted in a great loss due to increasing travel time. Additionally, depending on the degree of the increasing of travel time caused by limited access, it might make some road users to cancel their trips.
  This disaster impact study is an attempt to develop a model showing travel pattern at the time of natural disaster, considering quantification of road users' cost subject to road network during the disaster time. This model can involve the situation in which road users cancel their trips as a result of increasing travel time. Therefore, it makes possible to estimate travel cost generated by impassable roadways and opportunity cost generated by trip cancellation at the same time. This is the most distinguish feature of this model. Reproducing a scenario of the limited road network at the time of the 2000 eruption of Mt. Usu with this model, the study compares the traffic census data and the assigned traffic volume estimated by this model. Furthermore, the study calculates travel time/cost and opportunity cost due to trip cancelled.
  As a result of comparing actual values and the estimated values for both usual-time and disaster-time at the major points in the Usu area, we find, with a correlation coefficient of approximately 0.9, the proportion with an error between actual and estimated values for each time study is within 20%. Therefore, we can extract conclusion that the developed model shows reproducibility. Moreover, the study estimates that the total loss caused by limited road network at the time of the 2000 eruption of Mt. Usu is 47 million per day: loss as a result of travel time/cost and of opportunity cost is 22 million per day and 25 million per day respectively.
• Effects of memory retrieval load on drivers' reproduction performance under route searching

  Toru Hagiwara, Koji Nakagawa, Ken'etsu Uchida, Takeo Adachi, Seiichi Kagaya

  Transportation Research Record (1803) 8 - 15 0361-1981 2002 [Refereed][Not invited]
   

  Experiments were conducted using a personal computer to study the human factors involved in information processing during route searching. The primary objective was to investigate the effects of differences in the amount of memory retrieval load in terms of a given task. Two route-searching tasks were combined with two memory-reproducing tasks, for four types of tasks. The subjects used either a map guidance system or a voice guidance system to trace a predetermined route to the destination in a simulated driving test. In addition, the subjects were asked to perform memory-reproducing tasks using working memory. In these tasks, the subjects memorized the same number of traffic signs, but there was a difference in the memory retrieval process that the tasks demanded. The subjects were 62 students at Hokkaido University. Multiple analysis of variance was used to analyze the interaction effects and the main effects of tasks. The results indicated that the accuracy of route searching, the response time of route searching, and the accuracy of reproducing memorized traffic signs increased as the memory retrieval load decreased. This suggests that the memory retrieval process affects the performance of drivers' information processing.
• A Study on the Induced Probability Regarding Customers' Shop-Around Behavior by Parking lots' Situation in the Center of Sapporo

  UCHIDA Ken-etsu, KAGAYA Seiichi

  Studies in Regional Science 日本地域学会 33 (1) 99 - 114 0287-6256 2002 [Refereed][Not invited]
   

  The purpose of this study is to suggest the situation of parking lots that increases customers' probability to visit unscheduled destinations. In this study, customers are assumed to be personal car users. A questionnaire survey was carried out to investigate the characteristics of customers' shop-around behavior in the center of Sapporo, for example, the customers' predetermined destinations, the threshold walking distance between a predetermined destination and a parking lot used, and so on. A model using random utility function is developed to estimate customers' probability to visit any unscheduled destinations. According to the model, it is clarified that customers tend to visit unscheduled destinations as the distance between a predetermined destination and a parking lot becomes longer. Also, the threshold walking distance is estimated by using the random utility function. This model gives a result that the customers tend to use a parking lot situated near predetermined destination. Considering the results given by both models, it is clarified that when the distance between a parking lot and a predetermined destination is about 430 meters, customers' probability to visit unscheduled destinations is efficiently increased when no services with respect to parking fee is provided.
• A Use of Utility Maximization Problem to the Construction of Regional Information Technology System

  KAJII Yoshinori, KAGAYA Seiichi, UCHIDA Ken-etsu, NAKAYAMA Yoshimitsu

  Studies in Regional Science 日本地域学会 33 (1) 295 - 304 0287-6256 2002 [Refereed][Not invited]
   

  This study discusses the cost allocation for the cooperative project on construction of regional information technology in terms of utility maximization method. It is assumed that the joint investment organization including municipal concerns promotes the regional optical fiver network systems in the area where it is disadvantageous for enterprise compared with the advanced area. The case study was executed in the Tokachi River Basin where the existing basic fiver networks are allocated. Here, the utility functions of the agents that participate in the project are formulated due to multiplier manner. In order to find the optimal cost of each agent, Genetic algorithm was adopted. The project can be operated appropriately due to evaluating the maximum utility of the comprehensive formulation in the cooperative system.
• An Evaluation of Influences on Change of Citizen Perception Due to Information of Transportation Planning in a Downtown Area

  KAGAYA Seiichi, UCHIDA Ken-etsu, ADACHI Takeo

  Studies in Regional Science 日本地域学会 33 (1) 1 - 18 0287-6256 2002 [Refereed][Not invited]
   

  In most of Japanese large cities, the increase of automobile traffic has always caused traffic congestion of downtown areas. Simultaneously, the environmental problem due to automotive exhaust gas and the increase in traffic accident are also being generated. Therefore, measures that restrain a travel demand of automobiles have been examined in order to reduce them. It is to control automobile approaching to downtown areas. Moreover, an introduction of the transit mall for a purpose of making the space for the pedestrian has been considered and discussed as well.
  However, such new measures are unacceptable for passengers easily, because they are drastic changes of the transportation system in downtown areas. Therefore, it becomes indispensable that the understandings of citizen and community are obtained, when it intends to carry out the measure by which traveler's behavior is changed in a downtown area. That is, it is important to introduce the idea of public involvement to the transportation scheme. At the same time, we should discuss the appropriate method to grasp needs of citizen for new measures.
  The purpose of this study is to propose the approach for clarifying the transportation measure that citizen required. Namely, the method is considered to evaluate several alternative plans consisted of the multiple transportation measures. Concretely, we intend to introduce Conjoint Analysis in order to find the contributive factors and to decide the preferential alternative plan.
  The practical study was introduced to three districts with the different attributes and two different groups in the case of new transportation planning in Sapporo city. The measures are consisted of six attributes of the transportation planning.
  The results are as follows:
  1) The residents in every district evaluated the high utility exists in the measure of extension of pedestrian space and the measure of underground space improvement, but have opposition to the measure of regulation of automobile crossing.
  2) On the other hand, in the case of extension of tramcar line and cyclic exclusive area improvement, each district had a different opinion. They have more complex opinions towards regulation of automobile use in the supposed transit mall.
  3) In view of the characteristics of districts, the differences between the district with better public transportation and the district without it is remarkable.
  4) Due to the influence of information the residents' opinions become distinct. That is, the higher recognition of the public information and papers is, the more an opinion is clarified. This means the discussion of the measure introduced is more effective than before.
• An Evaluation of Regional Promotion Brought by Development of Information Network Based on Covariance Structure Analysis

  NAKAYAMA Yoshimitsu, UCHIDA Ken-etsu, KAGAYA Seiichi

  Studies in Regional Science 日本地域学会 32 (3) 305 - 314 0287-6256 2001 [Refereed][Not invited]
   

  A development of information infrastructure for correspondence using fiber optics cable is planned for the purpose of preventing and managing river disaster in the region of Tokachi riverside. Not only the completion of disaster prevention system but also the regional promotion effects will be brought if the regional information network system making use of the space of tunnel for fiber optics cable is developed. In this study, a questionnaire survey with respect to regional information network is carried out to local residents lived in the region of Tokachi riverside, and the evaluation of regional promotion effects brought by the development of information infrastructure is also carried out. The evaluation method used in this study is Covariance Structure Analysis, and this study clarifies the relationship between the development of information infrastructure and the regional promotion effects. As a result, it is concluded that the development of information infrastructure will bring the regional promotion effects such as the increase of interest in administrative information and regional subjects, the activation of exchanging information, the promotion to use regional information and so on.

MISC

• STOCHASTIC PREDICTION OF SNOW WIDTH BASED ON BAYESIAN INFERENCE

  峪龍一, 加藤哲平, 内田賢悦, 宗廣一徳  土木計画学研究・講演集(CD-ROM)  65-  2022
• 降雪時の路面状況を考慮したマクロ交通流モデルと交通容量の推定に関する研究

  加藤哲平, 峪龍一, 内田賢悦, 宗廣一徳  土木計画学研究・講演集(CD-ROM)  66-  2022
• Stochastic Estimation of Traffic Flow Parameters Considering Differences in Road Condition

  峪龍一, 本田拓海, 加藤哲平, 内田賢悦, 宗廣一徳  土木計画学研究・講演集(CD-ROM)  64-  2021
• Analysis on the effects of stochastic property of traffic flow on the winter road condition in snowy-cold regions

  本田拓海, 峪龍一, 宗広一徳, 内田賢悦  土木学会北海道支部論文報告集(CD-ROM)  (77)  2021
• Development of a Fare Subsidy Scheme to Minimize the Government Expenditure for Maintaining Railway Networks

  佐藤佑樹, 峪龍一, 内田賢悦  土木学会北海道支部論文報告集(CD-ROM)  (77)  2021
• Traffic state estimation in road networks with multiple time zones using incomplete observation data

  川村雄斗, 峪龍一, 内田賢悦  土木学会北海道支部論文報告集(CD-ROM)  (77)  2021
• Estimation of Travel Time Reduction Benefit Considering Travel Time Reliability in the Spreading Process of Automated Vehicles

  新田翔, 峪龍一, 加藤哲平, 内田賢悦  映像情報メディア学会技術報告  45-  (4(MMS2021 1-28/ME2021 1-28/AIT2021 1-28))  2021
• Research of the Designing of the Critical Headway Time of Autonomous Vehicles with Considering the Efficiency and the Equity of Travel Cost in the Spreading Process of Autonomous Vehicles

  新田翔, 峪龍一, 内田賢悦  土木計画学研究・講演集(CD-ROM)  63-  2021
• Network-level traffic state estimation method considering the multi-hourly time slots

  峪龍一, 川村雄斗, 内田賢悦  土木計画学研究・講演集(CD-ROM)  63-  2021
• 高速鉄道と航空会社の協力関係が社会的便益に与える影響

  芦谷雄世, 峪龍一, 内田賢悦  土木学会北海道支部論文報告集(CD-ROM)  (76)  2020
• 利用者負担を考慮した公的医療施設の統廃合問題分析

  原田祐輝, 峪龍一, 内田賢悦  土木学会北海道支部論文報告集(CD-ROM)  (76)  2020
• 渋滞の影響を考慮したライドシェア避難モデルに関する研究

  山本翔大, 峪龍一, 内田賢悦  土木学会北海道支部論文報告集(CD-ROM)  (76)  2020
• Development of a Multi-Class Traffic Assignment Model Considering Travel Time Reliability in the Spreading Process of Automated Vehicles

  新田翔, 峪龍一, 内田賢悦  土木計画学研究・講演集(CD-ROM)  62-  2020
• A method for spatiotemporal estimation of traffic states based on probe car data and traffic counter data

  峪龍一, 内田賢悦  土木計画学研究・講演集(CD-ROM)  62-  2020
• THE VERIFICATION OF THECORRECTION OF THE ROUTE CHOICE RATE USING ETC2.0 PROBE DATA IN THE TRIP TABLE ESTIMATION METHOD

  松田奈緒子, 松田奈緒子, 倉内文孝, 内田賢悦, 円山琢也, 杉浦聡志, 丹下真啓, 田中久光, 横地和彦, 村野祐太郎  土木計画学研究・講演集(CD-ROM)  62-  2020
• 平成30年北海道胆振東部地震とその災害に関する総合調査

  高橋 浩晃, 勝俣 啓, 大園 真子, 橋本 武志, 青山 裕, 酒井 慎一, 松本 聡, 岡田 知己, 小菅 正裕, 寺川 寿子, 飯尾 能久, 中尾 茂, 上嶋 誠, 柴田 智郎, 大津 直, 高井 伸雄, 飯場 正紀, 渡部 要一, 菊地 優, 岡崎 太一郎, 白井 和貴, 西村 裕一, 石川 達也, 高瀬 裕也, 永井 宏, 宮森 保紀, 三宅 弘恵, 松島 信一, 浅野 公之, 重藤 迪子, 卜部 厚志, 前田 宜浩, 石澤 友浩, 廣瀬 亘, 小山内 信智, 山田 孝, 笠井 美青, 檜垣 大助, 風間 基樹, 千木良 雅弘, 渦岡 良介, 竹林 洋史, 木村 誇, 石丸 聡, 岡田 成幸, 内田 賢悦, 有村 幹治, 植松 武是, 多々納 裕一, 梶谷 義雄, 能島 暢呂, 田村 圭子, 中村 洋光, 戸松 誠  自然災害科学総合シンポジウム講演論文集  (56)  21  -26  2019/09/11  [Not refereed][Not invited]
   

  2019年9月11日(水), 於 : キャンパスプラザ京都 第1講義室「平成30年北海道胆振東部地震」とその災害に関する総合調査を実施した。震度７を記録した揺れにより, 同時多発斜面災害と, 北海道全域同時停電(ブラックアウト)が発生し, 複合的な災害となった。震源の深さは約37kmで, 大すべり域はそれより浅い20-25km付近であった。木造家屋の倒壊が多発したむかわ町市街では, 地盤構造による地震波の増幅が見られた。同時多発斜面崩壊は, 近隣の活火山の噴火による降下火砕堆積物が素因となった。札幌市内の地盤液状化地帯では, 極めて軟弱な谷埋盛土層が確認された。地震発生が未明であったことが, 建物倒壊による直接死が出なかったことに関係している可能性がある。ブラックアウトは, 社会経済活動に大きな影響を与えた。
• OD交通量逆推定手法における出発時刻ベースの時間単位OD交通量の推定

  松田奈緒子, 倉内文孝, 内田賢悦, 円山琢也, 杉浦聡志, 丹下真啓, 田中久光, 横地和彦  土木計画学研究・講演集(CD-ROM)  60-  2019
• TSUNAMI EVACUATION MODEL OF RIDE SHARE CONSIDERING PEDESTRIAN

  中内智也, 峪龍一, 内田賢悦  土木計画学研究・講演集(CD-ROM)  60-  2019
• DEVELOPMENT OF ESTIMATION METHOD FOR TRAVEL TIME REDUCTION BENEFIT WITH CONSIDERING THE TRAVEL TIME UNCERTAINTY IN AN AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES PREVAILED ROAD NETWORK

  新田翔, 峪龍一, 内田賢悦  土木計画学研究・講演集(CD-ROM)  60-  2019
• OD交通量逆推定手法時間単位モデルの改良

  松田奈緒子, 倉内文孝, 内田賢悦, 円山琢也, 杉浦聡志, 丹下真啓, 瀧本真理, 中田寛臣, 瀬戸下伸介  土木計画学研究・講演集(CD-ROM)  57-  ROMBUNNO.54‐22  2018/05/28  [Not refereed][Not invited]
  
• 確率的交通容量を考慮したBPR関数のパラメータ推定

  加藤哲平, 内田賢悦, 峪龍一  土木計画学研究・講演集(CD-ROM)  58-  2018
• Wi-Fiパケットセンシングデータを用いた広域観光周遊行動のモデル分析

  小林巴奈, 福田大輔, 中西航, 内田賢悦, 浅田拓海, 有村幹治, 菅芳樹  土木計画学研究・講演集(CD-ROM)  58-  2018
• Estimation of closure duration considering correlation of the number of closure between links in road networks

  高橋洋介, 峪龍一, 内田賢悦  土木計画学研究・講演集(CD-ROM)  58-  2018
• Introduction of Road Network Reliability Evaluation in Hokkaido

  内田 賢悦  交通工学 = Traffic engineering  52-  (3)  32  -35  2017/07  [Not refereed][Not invited]
  
• Estimation of the Value of Travel Time and of Travel Time Reliability by Using Observed Link Flow

  加藤哲平, 内田賢悦  土木計画学研究・講演集(CD-ROM)  56-  2017
• Report of the 53rd Conference on Infrastructure Planning and Management

  内田 賢悦, 塩見 康博  高速道路と自動車 = Expressways and automobiles  59-  (9)  24  -27  2016/09  [Not refereed][Not invited]
  
• 環境税導入が航空ネットワーク形成に与える影響

  高島いぶき, 加藤哲平, 内田賢悦, 杉木直, 田村亨  土木計画学研究・講演集(CD-ROM)  53-  2016
• 対数正規分布による需要・供給の変動を考慮した確率的利用者均衡配分モデルに関する研究

  峪龍一, 加藤哲平, 内田賢悦  土木学会北海道支部論文報告集(CD-ROM)  (72)  2016
• 環境税導入が航空サービスへ与える影響に関する分析

  高島いぶき, 加藤哲平, 内田賢悦, 杉木直, 田村亨  土木学会北海道支部論文報告集(CD-ROM)  (72)  2016
• 常時観測データを用いた道路ネットワークの移動時間分布の推定に関する研究

  内田賢悦, 峪龍一, 山田雄太, 加藤哲平  土木計画学研究・講演集(CD-ROM)  53-  2016
• 道路ネットワークの被災を考慮した確率的利用者均衡配分モデル

  峪龍一, 加藤哲平, 内田賢悦  土木計画学研究・講演集(CD-ROM)  54-  2016
• 時間価値・時間信頼性価値を内生化した便益評価手法に関する研究

  加藤哲平, 内田賢悦  土木計画学研究・講演集(CD-ROM)  52-  2015
• (一財)北海道開発協会平成25年度研究助成サマリー 財政制約下における社会資本の戦略的な維持管理・更新

  内田 賢悦, 中尾 晴子  開発こうほう  (611)  34  -38  2014/06  [Not refereed][Not invited]
  
• マルチユーザークラス配分モデルに基づいた時間信頼性価値推計に関する研究

  加藤哲平, 内田賢悦  土木計画学研究・講演集(CD-ROM)  49-  ROMBUNNO.5  2014/06  [Not refereed][Not invited]
  
• 混合分布による最適道路修繕計画の評価に関する研究

  中尾晴子, 内田賢悦, 杉木直  土木学会北海道支部論文報告集(CD-ROM)  (70)  ROMBUNNO.D-06  2014/02  [Not refereed][Not invited]
  
• インセンティブ報奨制度を導入したバス路線改善法に関する研究

  内田賢悦, 棚田和輝, 加藤哲平, 田村亨  土木計画学研究・講演集(CD-ROM)  48-  ROMBUNNO.144  2013/11  [Not refereed][Not invited]
  
• 災害リスクを考慮した企業・世帯の立地選択マイクロシミュレーションモデルに関する研究

  藤井直哉, 杉木直, 内田賢悦, DE ANDRADE ANDRADE, Katia R, 田村亨  土木学会北海道支部論文報告集(CD-ROM)  (69)  ROMBUNNO.D-12  2013/02  [Not refereed][Not invited]
  
• 赤字バス路線改善のための総費用最小化に関する研究

  棚田和輝, 内田賢悦, 中出英利, ANDRADE Katia, 田村亨  土木学会北海道支部論文報告集(CD-ROM)  (69)  ROMBUNNO.D-15  2013/02  [Not refereed][Not invited]
  
• 財政制約下における社会資本の戦略的な維持管理・更新に関する研究

  内田 賢悦, 田村 亨  助成研究論文集  35  -53  2013  [Not refereed][Not invited]
  
• 道路ネットワークおける移動時間信頼性を考慮した便益評価の実用化に向けた課題と展望

  内田賢悦  土木計画学研究・講演集(CD-ROM)  46-  ROMBUNNO.SHOTAIKOEN,UCHIDA  2012/11  [Not refereed][Not invited]
  
• 多地域応用一般均衡分析を用いた高速鉄道整備による経済効果の計測

  杉木直, 内田賢悦  交通工学研究発表会論文集(CD-ROM)  32nd-  ROMBUNNO.97  2012/09/03  [Not refereed][Not invited]
  
• 道路ネットワークにおける時間信頼性価値の推計法

  内田賢悦  土木計画学研究・講演集(CD-ROM)  45-  ROMBUNNO.264  2012/06  [Not refereed][Not invited]
  
• 震災危険度を考慮した水産加工業の立地分布に関する研究

  黒澤佳代, 内田賢悦, 加賀屋誠一  土木学会北海道支部論文報告集(CD-ROM)  (68)  ROMBUNNO.D-05  2012/02  [Not refereed][Not invited]
  
• 開拓使時代におけるアメリカの交通システム受容と導入に関する研究

  野口絵理, 加賀屋誠一, 内田賢悦  土木学会北海道支部論文報告集(CD-ROM)  (68)  ROMBUNNO.D-17  2012/02  [Not refereed][Not invited]
  
• P&R政策がもたらす交通機関選択への影響評価に関する研究

  河野友佑, DE ANDRADE, ANDRADE Katia R, 加賀屋誠一, 内田賢悦  土木学会北海道支部論文報告集(CD-ROM)  (68)  ROMBUNNO.D-21  2012/02  [Not refereed][Not invited]
  
• 防災活動経験が水害避難行動に与える影響に関する研究

  霜鳥知行, 加賀屋誠一, 内田賢悦, DE ANDRADE, ANDRADE Katia R  土木学会北海道支部論文報告集(CD-ROM)  (68)  ROMBUNNO.D-02  2012/02  [Not refereed][Not invited]
  
• 道路ネットワーク上の移動時間と移動時間信頼性の価値に関する研究

  内田賢悦  土木計画学研究・講演集(CD-ROM)  44-  ROMBUNNO.124  2011/11  [Not refereed][Not invited]
  
• Effects of Provision of Passing Lanes in Opposing Two-lane Roads

  UCHIDA Kenetsu, KAGAYA Seiichi  Studies in Regional Science  41-  (4)  1003  -1016  2011  [Not refereed][Not invited]
   

  In this study, a model that estimates the benefits brought by provision of a passing lane in opposing two-lane roads was proposed. The model does not depend on a Monte Carlo simulation technique, so the benefits can be analytically calculated. The model requires the distribution of velocities of a platoon of vehicles after provision of the passing lane for calculating the benefits. The distribution of vehicle velocities can be easily obtained by observing real traffic situations along a road that has a similar traffic situation as the road of interest. The distribution of velocities assumed in this study was a Gumbel distribution. The proposed model calculates the velocity differences, i.e. increase in average velocity, with provision of the passing lane. Benefits, such as those from travel time reduction and travel cost reduction, can be estimated by the velocity differences. The proposed model can be combined with network analysis models, e.g. deterministic user equilibrium model or stochasitic user equilibrium model. Benefits from provision of the passing lane in the road network can also be estimated by the proposed model if combined with a road network analysis model. Therefore, the benefits calculated by the proposed model can reflect the route choice behaviors of drivers. A numerical experiment using a small road network was carried out to demonstrate the model. The road network had one origin-destination pair and two parallel routes in which it was assumed that one consisted of a one-lane road and the other a multi-lane road. Provision of the passing lane was then made to the route with the one-lane road. The drivers in the road network were assumed to change their route choice behaviors by using agerage travel they experience. The road network model applied to the numerical experiments was a deterministic user equilibirium model. Benefits due to travel time reduction in the network was correctly calculated by considering the route choice behaviors of the drivers. In addition, the benefit can be overestimated if the network analysis model is not applied because route choice behaviors play an important role in the calculations of the benefits.
  
  JEL Classification: C69
• Multi-agent simulation to civilian return trips during a hypothetical earthquake

  加賀屋 誠一, 石黒 由佳子, 内田 賢悦  Bulletin of the Natural Disaster Science Data Center, Hokkaido  23-  3  -16  2010/03  [Not refereed][Not invited]
  
• A Study on the Sustainability of the City Using System Dynamics

  KAWAI Jun, KAGAYA Seiichi, UCHIDA Ken'etu  Studies in Regional Science  40-  (2)  427  -435  2010  [Not refereed][Not invited]
   

  In this study, an Obihiro City model based on system dynamics was developed to provide a comprehensive assessment of the sustainability of the city, which is emphasized in recent years. Obihiro City was selected as an environmental model city in 2008. Therefore, the city has a feasibility of being a sustainable city. Meanwhile the city faces serious concerns with rapid aging and a very low birthrate. In this study, the sustainability of Obihiro City was evaluated with the following indexes as output indicators of system dynamics.
  Social indexes
  ·Low birthrate ·Aging
  Economical indexes
  ·Financial capability index ·Work force ratio to population
  Environmental indexes
  ·Public transport share ·Food self-sufficiency ·Bioenergy production
  The city model developed in this study is comprised of three sectors, i.e. the society and population sector, the economic sector, and the environmental sector. The model was developed by considering the relationships among the sectors.
  The model clarified that aging and a low birthrate will continue. This finding reflects the employment situation of women and a resulting decline in wages. Financial capability index will increase because of the decreasing population. Moreover, the ratio of employees will decrease because of aging and a low birthrate. As for the environmental indicator, the public transport share will decrease in the future. Food self-sufficiency will increase because of a decrease in the population. Bioenergy production will slightly decrease because of agricultural production.
  
  JFL Classification: Q01
• Change in Travel Demands in Aomori Prefecture and Donan District with the New Shinkansen Lines

  UCHIDA Ken'etsu, SUGIKI Nao, KAGAYA Seiichi  Studies in Regional Science  40-  (3)  779  -793  2010  [Not refereed][Not invited]
   

  In this study, the impacts of new Shinkansen lines to be constructed in Aomori Prefecture and Donan District, the south part of Hokkaido, were estimated in terms of travel demand between the two districts. First, the travel demand between districts after the construction of new Shinkansen lines was estimated. Then, the number of passengers expected to use the six new Shinkansen stations was estimated. For the travel demand estimation, generalized costs of travel, population of a district and economic growth were explanatory variables. Since the generalized cost was expressed by travel fees and travel times on the Shinkansen and in the air, the travel demand between the two districts was estimated taking into account change in mobility brought by the new Shinkansen lines. The numbers of passenger using the new Shinkansen stations was lastly estimated by using the modal share of the Shinkansen. The results clarified that most of the new Shinkansen stations would have an increased number of passengers even with a decreased population in the future. However, the new Shichnohe Shinkansen station to be constructed in Aomori Prefecture would have a decreased number of passengers when compared with the present railway station, Noheji station, due to the inconvenient access to the Shinkansen station from the center of the district.
• A Study on Calculating Ecological Footprint Indexes with a Multi-regional Input-output Table

  YOKAWA Masahiko, UCHIDA Ken-etu  Studies in Regional Science  38-  (4)  939  -952  2008  [Not refereed][Not invited]
   

  In this paper, the cological Footprint (EF) is the productive capacity numerically quantified as land area required to support a defined economy or population at a specified standard of living. In the present research, the flow of EF between industries can be taken into consideration by an inter I-O analysis. However, the actual conditions cannot take into consideration shipments and naturalization of land resources between areas because it is calculated only within an area. Therefore, a more holistic approach was taken. Provincial productive output data from all industries was gathered and assembled into a multi-regional input-output table. This was then analyzed to obtain the standard physical unit (hectares/yen) from which each regional industry's individual contribution to the EF could be determined. This process was conducted for the nine major regions of Japan as a whole. With this, comparisons between the environmental carrying capacity, as well as the internal EF flows within the country can be made. In conclusion, EF analysis suggests that Japan's economy is ecologically unsustainable.
  
  JEL Classification: Q01, Q41, Q56, Q57
• A Study on a Comprehensive Evaluation Model Developed by Applying DEA

  UCHIDA Kenetsu, SASAKI Keiichi, KAGAYA Seiichi  Journal of the City Planning Institute of Japan  42-  (3)  511  -516  2007/10/25  [Not refereed][Not invited]
   

  Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) is one of the business analysis techniques, and is used for evaluation of a project in a wide range of fields. The basic philosophy of DEA is that the performance evaluation and the efficiency value of a Decision Making Unit (DMU) are measured based on the superior one. And it has been used as effectiveness evaluation technique by convenience of a calculation and easiness of understanding. However, the DEA can be applied to comparative evaluation, but not be applied to comprehensive ranking due to the nature of the method. In this study, the problems of the DEA in applying to the comprehensive ranking problem are discussed. Then, two-step DEA model for comprehensive ranking problem is proposed and numerical example is lastly presented.
• CVMによるパークゴルフ場整備がもたらす地域振興効果に関する研究

  中松拓也, 余川雅彦, 加賀屋誠一, 萩原亨, 内田賢悦  土木計画学研究・講演集(CD-ROM)  36-  2007
• A Study on a Comprehensive Evaluation Model Developed by Applying DEA

  Uchida Kenetstu, Sasaki Keiichi, Kagaya Seiichi  Journal of the City Planning Institute of Japan  42-  (0)  86  -86  2007  [Not refereed][Not invited]
   

  Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) is one of the business analysis techniques, and is used for evaluation of a project in a wide range of fields. The basic philosophy of DEA is that the performance evaluation and the efficiency value of a Decision Making Unit (DMU) are measured based on the superior one. And it has been used as effectiveness evaluation technique by convenience of a calculation and easiness of understanding. However, the DEA can be applied to comparative evaluation, but not be applied to comprehensive ranking due to the nature of the method. In this study, the problems of the DEA in applying to the comprehensive ranking problem are discussed. Then, two-step DEA model for comprehensive ranking problem is proposed and numerical example is lastly presented.
• A Study on Introduction of Input-Output Table for Estimation of Ecological Footprint

  YOKAWA Masahiko, KAGAYA Seiichi, UCHIDA Ken-etsu  Journal of the City Planning Institute of Japan  41-  (3)  199  -204  2006/10/25  [Not refereed][Not invited]
  
• Transport Modal Choice Model with Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Utility Functions

  Andrade Katia, Uchida Kenetsu, Kagaya Seiichi  ファジィシステムシンポジウム講演論文集  22-  903  -908  2006/09/06
• A STUDY ON LCC EVALUATION METHOD FOR PAVEMENTS IN ROAD NETWORK CONSIDERING DRIVERS' ROUTE CHOICES

  UCHIDA Kenetsu, KAGAYA Seiichi, SASAKI Keiichi, HIGASHIMOTO Yasushi  Doboku Gakkai Ronbunshuu D  62-  (1)  157  -166  2006/04/20  [Not refereed][Not invited]
   

  A method for evaluating LCC of pavements considering drivers’ route choice behaviors is proposed in this study. Extension of existing models, which can deal with one link or a few links, to new one that can deal with road network as a whole and drivers’ route choices, is carried out. LCC minimization problem is formulated as a bi-level problem in which two problems, i.e. LCC minimization as upper level problem, and user equilibrium assignment expressing drivers’ route choices as lower level problem, are included. A simple numerical example is also presented. This example shows the effect from traffic congestions brought by repair works on LCC which can not be considered in the existing models.
• A Study on Introduction of Input-Output Table for Estimation of Ecological Footprint

  Yokawa Masahiko, Kagaya Seiichi, Uchida Ken-etu  Journal of the City Planning Institute of Japan  41-  (0)  199  -204  2006  [Not refereed][Not invited]
   

  Ecological footprint (EF) is the area of land and water required to support a defined economy or population at a specified standard of living. This study is aimed at determining EF in consideration of domestic consumption sector by applying the input-output analysis. Moreover, the EF according to each industry for an endogenous sector is also considered. In the analysis, the formula to calculate the standard physical unit is applied. Then, EF of each industry is computed. Additionally, the difference between the environmental carrying capacity of Hokkaido and Japan is compared. In conclusion, the biological viewpoint shows that Japan has the unbalanced trade by EF.
• A Study on Introduction of Input-Output Table for Estimation of Ecological Footprint

  YOKAWA Masahiko, KAGAYA Seiichi, HAGIWARA Toru, UCHIDA Ken-etu  Journal of the City Planning Institute of Japan  41-  (0)  222  -222  2006  [Not refereed][Not invited]
   

  Ecological footprint (EF) is the area of land and water required to support a defined economy or population at a specified standard of living. This study is aimed at determining EF in consideration of domestic consumption sector by applying the input-output analysis. Moreover, the EF according to each industry for an endogenous sector is also considered. In the analysis, the formula to calculate the standard physical unit is applied. Then, EF of each industry is computed. Additionally, the difference between the environmental carrying capacity of Hokkaido and Japan is compared. In conclusion, the biological viewpoint shows that Japan has the unbalanced trade by EF.
• A Fundamental Study on the Danger Territories for Pedestrians and Cyclists on Sidewalk

  ADACHI Takeo, YOSHIMURA Masahiro, HAGIWARA Toru, UCHIDA Ken'etsu, KAGAYA Seiichi  INFRASTRUCTURE PLANNING REVIEW  23-  (23)  567  -573  2006  [Not refereed][Not invited]
   

  In this paper, the distances and the relative velocities were focused on as the factors of dangers that they feel in their near miss. The experiments and the analysis cleared the differences in their feeling and in the territories in which they feel the danger between pedestrians and cyclists. Each experiment was conducted for a pair of a pe-destrian and acyclists, which gave us the distances in which they feel danger as a result. The results were main-ly as follows: Pedestrians felt the danger earlier than cyclists in head-on approach. Cyclists felt it and avoided the pedestrian earlier.
• A STUDY ON AN EVALUATION METHOD FOR LCC OF PAVEMENTS CONSIDERING WINTER TRAFFIC SITUATION IN COLD REGIONS

  UCHIDA Ken'etsu, KAGAYA Seiichi  Doboku Gakkai Ronbunshuu D  62-  (3)  483  -495  2006  [Not refereed][Not invited]
   

  A method for evaluating LCC of pavements considering drivers’ route choice behaviors is proposed in this study. It is assumed that drivers will change their route choices due to the changes in driving cost brought by deterioration of surface condition of pavements, and the changes in traffic capacities brought by both surface conditions in summer when repair works are made to pavements, and in winter when antifreezing admixture dispersion is carried out. LCC minimization problem is formulated as an implicit program, in which LCC is minimized subject to probit-based SUE which expresses drivers’ route choices. A simple numerical example obtained by using test network is lastly presented.
• A BASIC STUDY ON DETERMINATION OF OPTIMAL AMOUNT OF ANTIFREEZING ADMIXTURE DISPERSION IN THE COLD REGION

  UCHIDA Kenetsu, KAGAYA Seiichi  Doboku Gakkai Ronbunshu  (800)  87  -100  2005/10/20  [Not refereed][Not invited]
   

  A multi-modal traffic assignment model is proposed in this study. Auto, bus and railway transport system, and their interactions are simultaneously expressed in the model. A model that determines optimal amount of antifreezing admixture dispersion is also proposed. This problem is formulated as Network Design Problem (NDP) because passengers would change both transport modes and routes depending on the level of service for road network determined by the amount of antifreezing admixture dispersed in winter. Responses from passengers to the amount of antifreezing admixture dispersed are expressed by the multi-modal traffic assignment model. Lastly, calculation results obtained by using test network are presented.
• 交通行動の中止を考慮した災害時の道路途絶の影響算定--有珠山噴火を対象として

  高橋 尚人, 内田 賢悦, 浅野 基樹  北海道開発土木研究所月報  (622)  23  -30  2005/03  [Not refereed][Not invited]
  
• 中国西部地域における地域振興を考慮した道路整備評価に関する研究

  春 燕, 加賀屋 誠一, 内田 賢悦  環境共生  10-  73  -79  2005/02  [Not refereed][Not invited]
  
• A STUDY ON TRAFFIC NETWORK MODEL CONSIDERING ABANDON OF TRAVELING BEHAVIOUR IN THE CASE OF DISASTER

  UCHIDA Kenetsu, KAGAYA Seiichi, TAKAHASHI Naoto, HAGIWARA Toru  Doboku Gakkai Ronbunshu  (779)  1  -10  2005/01/20  [Not refereed][Not invited]
   

  Impassible links made by disaster would bring about the increase of traveling costs and the losses of opportunity costs of road network users. A traffic network model considering abandon of traveling behaviour in the case of disaster is developed in this study. This model intends to quantify the user costs in the case of disaster. Both the increase of traveling costs and the loss of opportunity costs by abandoning traveling behaviour are estimated simultaneously by the model. A validation test is also carried out by using a test network. As a result, it is clarified that the relationship between the increase of traveling costs and the loss of opportunity costs is expressed in an appropriate manner in the model.
• A Study on the Analysis for Economical Feasibility of Heat Supply System in Sapporo

  KOHATA Naoto, UCHIDA Ken-etsu, KAGAYA Seiichi, HAGIWARA Toru  INFRASTRUCTURE PLANNING REVIEW  22-  (22)  257  -264  2005  [Not refereed][Not invited]
   

  In this study, the economical feasibility of a heat supply system in Sapporo is discussed. Large-scaled heat supply system is considered to be available for thecities in cold and snow region.A project scheme is built, and the utility functions for each participant that are formulated based on the scheme. Then, the amountsof optimal cost assignment are clarified. In order to solve optimization problemformulated by using these utility functions, GA (Genetic Algorithm) is applied to.Consequently, economical feasibility of the large-scale heat supply system in Sapporo is presented.
• A study on a public transport assignment model applying probit-based stochastic user equilibrium

  内田 賢悦, 加賀屋 誠一  Journal of urban studies  (42)  37  -45  2005  [Not refereed][Not invited]
  
• 交通行動の中止を考慮した災害時における交通ネットワークモデルを用いた有珠山噴火による道路途絶に伴う影響算定

  高橋 尚人, 内田 賢悦, 加賀屋 誠一  北海道開発土木研究所月報  (612)  48  -56  2004/05  [Not refereed][Not invited]
  
• 震災経験を考慮したルールベースの避難交通行動シミュレーションへの適用に関する研究

  根岸祥人, 加賀屋誠一, 内田賢悦, 萩原亨  土木計画学研究・講演集(CD-ROM)  30-  2004
• A Study on Directional Navigation of Pedestrian down to the Underground

  YAMAMOTO Yojiro, HAGIWARA Toru, ADACHI Takeo, KAGAYA Seiichi, UCHIDA Ken-etsu  INFRASTRUCTURE PLANNING REVIEW  21-  (21)  709  -715  2004  [Not refereed][Not invited]
   

  This study focuses on the sense of resistance on pedestrians down to the underground. In order to analyze a pedestrian's direction navigation and way-finding behavior when pedestrians going down the stairs to the underground, the simulation experiment was conducted using personal computer by providing the visual information in movements. The results show that the directional navigation and way-finding behavior becomes difficult as the number of corners of the stairs increases. In addition, the visual information regarding direction might improve those behavior
• A STUDY ON EVALUATION OF PEDESTRIAN LEVEL OF SERVICE ALONG SIDEWALKS AND AT CROSSWALKS USING CONJOINT ANALYSIS

  MURALEETHARAN Thambiah, ADACHI Takeo, UCHIDA Ken-etsu, HAGIWARA Toru, KAGAYA Seiichi  INFRASTRUCTURE PLANNING REVIEW  21-  (21)  727  -735  2004  [Not refereed][Not invited]
   

  The primary objective of this study is to develop a method to evaluate the LOS of pedestrians, so that people can understa nd how well a particular street accommodates pedestrian travel. In order to fulfill this objective, a statistical process called c onjoint analysis was used in this study to identify the best combination of factors to achieve an accurate LOS. Factors affe cting pedestrian LOS have been defined and they were weighted by relative importance. In case of sidewalks, the result i ndicates that the factor ‘flow rate’ has greater importance than other factors. At the crosswalks turning vehicles have much impact on pedestrians than the other factors. Finally a method for the assignment of pedestrian LOS was developed based on identified attributes. This study provides the method to determine the LOS of a pedestrian path, as well as factors contri buting to low and high LOS.
• 中国西部地域における道路整備効果に関する考察

  春 燕, 加賀屋 誠一, 内田 賢悦  都市学研究  (41)  15  -21  2004  [Not refereed][Not invited]
  
• A STUDY ON EVALUATION WEIGHTS ADJUSTMENT MODEL FOR DECISION MAKING SUPPORT USING AHP

  UCHIDA Ken-etsu, MORI Ayako, KAGAYA Seiichi, HAGIWARA Toru  Doboku Gakkai Ronbunshu  2004-  (765)  143  -153  2004  [Not refereed][Not invited]
   

  In this study, Evaluation Weights Adjustment Model using AHP, that expresses the process of group decision making, is developed for the purpose of group decision making support. In the model, interindividual similarities regarding their preferences are considered. A group decision support system combined Evaluation Weights Adjustment Model and Group Decision Making Stress Method is also proposed. Two numerical examples calculated by using test data are shown. As the results, it is clarified that the process of group decision making is expressed by the system and that the system has effect on evaluators who would not change their preferences to change their minds.
• A Study on Changes of Network Traffic Capacity in the Case of Inundation in the Northeast Part of Sapporo City

  KAGAYA Seiichi, UCHIDA Ken-etsu, HAGIWARA Tohru  Journal of Japan Society for Natural Disaster Science  21-  (4)  401  -415  2003/02/28  [Not refereed][Not invited]
   

  ln this study, two analyses of road network capacity in the case of inundation in the north part of Sapporo City are carried out. That is, changes of road network capacity caused by both the cut off of road sections caused by inland water inundation and the traffic measures that prevent links from being cut off are examined. As the results. the following two conclusions are obtained. I) The network capacity in the case of the flood decreases 32% compared with that in usual status. II) Because the traffic measure made to a road section has additive, alternative or synereistic effect each other, it is important to consider the interaction between road sections in examining the effect of traffic measures. lf traffic measures are made to three of links cut off in the case of inundation, the increases of network capacity vary from 2% to 38% compared with the network capacity when no traffic measure is made.
• 156 Practical Education to Learn Systems Analysis for Planning and Design

  Hagiwara Toru, Takano Shinei, Nakatsuji Takashi, Kishi Kunihiro, Uchida Kenetsu, Haraguchi Norihito  Proceedings of Annual Conference of Japanese Society for Engineering Education  2003-  (0)  469  -470  2003  [Not refereed][Not invited]
  
• 水災害時における道路ネットワーク交通への影響に関する研究

  加賀屋 誠一, 内田 賢悦  北海道地区自然災害科学資料センター報告  17-  17  -27  2002/05  [Not refereed][Not invited]
  
• A Study on the Validity of User Equilibrium Assignment Model Introduced Split Control of Signals

  UCHIDA Ken-etsu, KAGAYA Seiichi, HAGIWARA Tohru  INFRASTRUCTURE PLANNING REVIEW  19-  (19)  399  -408  2002  [Not refereed][Not invited]
   

  User equilibrium assignment models considering realistic intersection delays, signal setting control and soon, generally have no analytical guarantees on stability and uniqueness solution. However, these models should not be denied immediately. That is, these models will give useful results under the condition that the solutions have adequate validity to use by verifying the validity of solutions. This study verified the validity of user equilibrium assignment model introduced signal control that authors developed and clarified that the model do not have unique solution but have solutions with adequate validity.
• An Analysis on Influence of Mobility Space Changes on Users in Urban Infrastructure Improvement

  ADACHI Takeo, OKABE Toshiya, UCHIDA Ken'etsu, HAGIWARA Toru, KAGAYA Seiichi  INFRASTRUCTURE PLANNING REVIEW  19-  (19)  649  -656  2002  [Not refereed][Not invited]
   

  Tunnels change the spaces on the ground in which roads used to exist. They divide pedestrians and bicycle riders from car traffic and offer new kind of space to them. It has a great influence on the pedestrians and bicycle riders who used to care the car traffic. The purpose of this study is to estimate the influence on pedestrians and bicycle riders, not car drivers, focusing on two functions of the mobility space-transportation and stay. By the survey in the Hokkaido University Campus, the following was made clear. The new transportation function satisfies the pedestrians more than the cycle riders.
• Effects of Memory Retrieval Process on Driver's Reproduction Performance

  NAKAGAWA K., HAGIWARA T., UCHIDA K., ADACHI T., KAGAYA S.  INFRASTRUCTURE PLANNING REVIEW  19-  (19)  733  -738  2002  [Not refereed][Not invited]
   

  Experiments were conducted using a personal computer to study the human factors involved in information processing during route searching. The primary objective was to investigate the effects of difference in amount of memory retrieval load in terms of a given task. In this study, two route searching tasks were combined with twomemory reproducing tasks, for four types of task. The subjects used either a map guidance system or a voice guidance system to trace a predetermined route to the destination in a simulated driving test. In addition, the subjects were asked to perform memory reproducing tasks using working memory. In these tasks, the subjects memorized the samenumber of traffic signs, but there was a difference in the memory retrieval process that the tasks demanded. Thesubjects were 62 students at Hokkaido University. Multiple ANOVA was used to analyze the interaction effects and the main effects of tasks. The results indicated that the accuracy of route searching, the response time of route searching, and the accuracy of reproducing memorized traffic signs increased as the memory retrieval load decreased. This suggests that the memory retrieval process affects the performance of driver's information processing.
• A Study on Effects of ISO9000s in the Construction Sector

  UCHIDA Ken-etsu, KAGAYA Seiichi, HAGIWARA Tohru, SAKATA Tatsuhiko  Journal of Construction Management, JSCE  9-  (9)  177  -184  2002  [Not refereed][Not invited]
   

  This study evaluat es the effects of introduction of both IS09000 series and construction management systems to construction sector and clarifies the preference rankings of requirements for quality management in terms of the questionnaire s survey on certification of IS09000 series and its background for three construction sectors. The surveys were carried out in 1996 and 2001. As a result, there are wide differences of the preference rankings of requirements for quality management between owners and acceptant. A latent stru cture of IS09000 series and its background were modeled based on an analysis of covariance structure. Consequently, it is clarified that extent of consulting on the construction management system affects the evaluation of acceptant for ISO9000 series.
• A Study on Overtaking Behavior on the Slippery Road

  UCHIDA Ken-etsu, KISHI Kunihiro, SATOH Keiichi, NAKAOKA Ryouji  INFRASTRUCTURE PLANNING REVIEW  17-  (17)  957  -966  2000  [Not refereed][Not invited]
   

  Overtaking behavior on two-lane and slippery road becomes more difficult because tire-road friction coefficient drops. In this study, overtaking behavior model considering slippery roads is developed and analysis of overtaking behavior is conducted. That is, by developing passing sight distance estimation model and aborting model, analysis of overtaking and aborting behavior on slippery road is conducted. As a result, the following facts are clarified. The length of overtaken vehicle, overtaking vehicle's speed and road conditions affect passing sight distance. The overtaking vehicle's speed and road conditions affect aborting behavior.
• A Study on the Evaluation of Traffic Regulation Policies Accompanied by the Large Scale Redevelopment Project

  UCHIDA Ken-etsu, KAGAYA Seiichi, SATOH Keiichi  Studies in Regional Science  31-  (1)  237  -254  2000  [Not refereed][Not invited]
   

  Land readjustment project of Sapporo Station is carried out in these years. This project includes the construction of new station with high-rise hotel and the large-scale shopping mall. Due to this, traffic environment will be deteriorated around station area. The purpose of this paper is to evaluate traffic regulation policies that overcome such traffic problems caused by the project.
  A comprehensive model combined with 2 steps assignment method and the method considering signal effects that authors developed enforced the evaluation. The assigned traffic volumes were estimated in case of two alternatives of road networks, that is, the case of pre-project and the case of post-project. These cases include several regulations that authors invented. The evaluation was enforced comprehensively in term of 2 indexes, namely, intersection saturation degree and total traveling time.
  As a result, the following points were concluded: (1) Traffic regulation policy that prohibited both the right-turn outflow from the redevelopment area and the right-turn inflow into the same area was the most effective. (2) The other policies brought the increase of circuit traffic. At the same time, they took long total traveling time and had no reduction of affects on intersection saturation degree.
• Traffic Network Analysis Considering Fuzzy Intersection Delays in Cold Region

  UCHIDA Ken-etsu, KAGAYA Seiichi, SATOH Keiichi  Journal of Japan Society for Fuzzy Theory and Systems  11-  (2)  38  -48  1999/04/15  [Not refereed][Not invited]
  
• Price Sensitivity of Airfare from the Viewpoint of Passengers

  KISHI Kunihiro, UCHIDA Ken-etsu, SATOH Keiichi  INFRASTRUCTURE PLANNING REVIEW  16-  (16)  187  -194  1999  [Not refereed][Not invited]
   

  The traffic fare had often been decided on the basis of the cost, and many people had sense of expensive for airfare especially. In this study, we developed Kishi's Logit PSM (KLP) improving Price Sensitivity Measurement (PSM) in order to evaluate airfare further from the viewpoint of passengers' consciousness. In addition, we carried out the investigation by KLP for passengers on airfare between Tokyo and Sapporo at Shin-Chitose Airport, and clarified passengers' evaluation of existing normal airfare.
• 貨物鉄道システムを用いたグリーンロジスティクスの実現化方策に関する研究

  日本物流学会誌  7-  98  -107  1999  [Not refereed][Not invited]
  
• ファジィ交差点遅れを考慮した積雪寒冷地における交通ネットワーク解析

  日本ファジィ学会誌  11-  (2)  222  -232  1999  [Not refereed][Not invited]
  
• 交差点遅れを考慮した利用者均衡配分に関する研究

  土木計画学研究・論文集  (16)  577  -586  1999  [Not refereed][Not invited]
  
• Price Sensitivity of Airfare from the Viewpiont of Passengers

  16-  187  -194  1999  [Not refereed][Not invited]
  
• Study on a plan which realizes green logistics using a freight railway system

  UCHIDA Ken-etsu, SATO Keiichi, KARASAWA Yutaka  Journal of Japan Logistics Society  1999-  (7)  98  -107  1999  [Not refereed][Not invited]
   

  Considering Green Logistics, air pollution, waste disposal and recycling are major 3 factors. Recycling is grappled in many way. On the other hand, waste disposal is not grappled enough in many way, because of the continuous illegal abandonment. Vehicle transport which is a major cause of air pollution is mainly used at present. Vehicle transport is convenient in comparison of railway and ship transport. However, vehicle transport has harmful effects of noise and vibration as well as air pollution on people who reside around roads, in addition to high rate of the occurrence of an accident. In this study, we took note of railway transport which has wide railway network and which is low pollution transport, and we explored the possibility of realization of waste transport by railway system. That is, we adopted 2 precede examples performed in Kawasaki city and Saitama prefecture and we analyzed transport system and carried out interview research. And we evaluated railway transport as the substitute transport by calculating social costs. An example of Kawasaki city introduced first railway transport for the purpose of carrying wastes of hill and inland region to seaside region where new waste disposal center was located in 1995. Another one of Saitama prefecture introduced railway transport for the purpose of carrying earth and soil generated by constructing Saitama New Midtown.
• Traffic Network Analysis Considering Fuzzy Intersection Delays in Cold Region

  UCHIDA Ken-etsu, KAGAYA Seiichi, SATOH Keiichi  Journal of Japan Society for Fuzzy Theory and Systems  11-  (2)  222  -232  1999  [Not refereed][Not invited]
   

• A Study on User Equilibrium Assignment considering Intersection Delays

  UCHIDA Ken-etsu, KISHI Kunihiro, SATOH Keiichi  INFRASTRUCTURE PLANNING REVIEW  16-  (16)  577  -586  1999  [Not refereed][Not invited]
   

  Since intersection delays varies with saturation flow rate and arrival distribution of vehicles, estimating intersection delay needs adjustment process which works these factors. We developed a model which estimates intersection delays using membership function with adjustment process of saturation flow rate and arrival distribution of vehicles. Since parameters in the model are set by measuring intersection delays, the intersection delays from the model have a conformity with real ones performing the traffic assignment.In this study, we propose a traffic analysis method which introduces the estimation model of intersection delays to user equilibrium assignment.
• 雪氷路面における追越行動モデルの構築

  内田 賢悦, 高橋 圭, 岸 邦宏  交通工学研究発表会論文報告集  (18)  81  -84  1998/11  [Not refereed][Not invited]
  
• Estimation of the Assighed Traffic Volume in Consideration of Signalized Intersections

  UCHIDA Ken-etsu  Journal of the Eastern Asia Society for Transportion Studies  2-  (3)  777  -793  1997  [Not refereed][Not invited]
  

Awards & Honors

• 2012/06 土木学会論文賞
   

  受賞者: 内田 賢悦
• 2005/10 日本地域学会論文奨励賞
   

  受賞者: 内田 賢悦

Research Grants & Projects

• 来る自動運転社会を見据えた戦略的ネットワークデザインに資する技術開発

  日本学術振興会：科学研究費助成事業 基盤研究(B)

  Date (from‐to) : 2021/04 -2024/03 

  Author : 内田 賢悦, 宗廣 一徳, 加藤 哲平, 杉浦 聡志, 四辻 裕文, 峪 龍一

   

  今年度は、自動運転社会での戦略的ネットワークデザインを念頭に置き、自動運転車両が道路ネットワークに与える影響を定量的に評価するための技術、すなわち、コネクティッドな自動運転車両の特性を踏まえた交通解析法の開発を行った。 開発した解析法は、ヒトが運転する一般車両とコネクティッドな自動運転車両が混在する道路ネットワークを対象としており、そこではそれぞれの車両が異なる経路選択行動をとると考えている。ヒトが運転する車両は、精度の高い道路ネットワーク上の交通状況を得ることが困難であると考えられるため、その経路選択行動を確率的利用者均衡配分問題として表現している。一方で、コネクティッドな自動運転車両は、精度の高い道路ネットワーク上の交通状況を得ることが可能であると考えられるため、その経路選択行動を確定的利用者均衡配分問題として表現している。ここで、確率的利用者均衡配分問題は不完全情報下の経路選択を表現するのに対して、確定的利用者均衡配分問題は完全情報下の経路選択を表現している。 また、ヒトが運転する車両とコネクティッドな自動運転車両は、異なる車頭時間を有して走行すると考えられ、さらに車種ごとの車頭時間にはばらつきがあることが想定される。そのため、車種別の車頭時間分布を設定することによって、確率的な交通容量を表現した。このことにより、リンク上の自動運転車両の比率によって、異なる分布形状をとる確率的なリンク交通容量を表現することができた。経路選択の異質性と確率的交通容量の影響を表現したマルチユーザクラス均衡配分問題として、交通解析法の定式化を行った。この解析法では、交通量だけではなく移動時間も確率変数として計算されるため、時間信頼性の視点から、自動運転車両が道路ネットワークに与える影響の定量的評価が可能となった。
• Estimation of stock effects from connected autonomous vehicles based on network reliability

  Japan Society for the Promotion of Science：Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research

  Date (from‐to) : 2018/04 -2021/03 

  Author : Uchida Kenetsu

   

  In this study, a method for estimating the stock effects from connected autonomous vehicles is developed. The method focuses on the travel time reliability. The method addresses two effects of the connected autonomous vehicles, i.e., improvement of stochastic traffic capacity and enhanced travel time information in a road network. Such effects improve the travel time reliability. Numerical experiments are carried out for demonstrating the method developed in this study. It is shown that the method estimates correctly the stock effects from the connected autonomous vehicles from the viewpoint of the travel time reliability.
• Development of a road maintenance planning method for wide area road network considering river and sediment disaster risk

  Japan Society for the Promotion of Science：Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research

  Date (from‐to) : 2017/04 -2020/03 

  Author : Arimura Mikiharu

   

  Typhoon No. 10, which struck Tohoku/Hokkaido in 2016, caused flooding of bridges and large-scale landslides due to flooding of rivers in various places, causing catastrophic damage to the main trunk roads that support local communities. For such unusual weather, it is necessary to build a wide-area road network with a view to the future. Conventionally, river basin plans and ground maintenance plans and road maintenance plans have not been linked sufficiently from the viewpoint of disaster prevention and mitigation. In this study, we used traffic big data for large-scale meteorological disasters to grasp the impact of damage to a wide area road network over a long period of time. In addition, a road improvement planning method was developed to improve the resilience of the wide area road network in consideration of the potential road damage risk due to river and sediment disasters.
• Comprehensive study on the 2018 Hokkaido Eastern Iburi Earthquake and its disaster

  Japan Society for the Promotion of Science：Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research Grant-in-Aid for Special Purposes

  Date (from‐to) : 2018/10 -2019/03 

  Author : Takahashi Hiroaki

   

  Comprehensive investigation on the 2018 Hokkaido Eastern Iburi earthquake and its disaster was conducted. Mainshock rupture initiated at deepest part and major slip was occurred in 20-30km deep. Multiple simultaneous landslides in Atsuma town was induced by combination of strong ground shaking and weak sliding layer between pyroclastic fall deposit layers. Halloysite cray minerals was discovered in all sliding layers. Simulation suggested landslides might attack residential houses within 6 seconds. Observed peak ground motions in nearby area were larger than common distance attenuation model. Severe wooden house damage in Mukawa town was due to amplified seismic waves due to site effects. Sounding and boring investigation revealed filled low-density volcanic ash and higher groundwater level in liquefaction area. Electricity blackout caused severe damage in social and economic activities of Hokkaido. These scientific outcomes were explained to residents at public briefing session.
• Development of a road traffic measure evaluation model considering travel time reliability

  Japan Society for the Promotion of Science：Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)

  Date (from‐to) : 2014/04 -2017/03 

  Author : UCHIDA KENETSU

   

  This study developed a benefit estimation model that considers travel time reliability. The model is based on a network model that is formulated as a utility maximization problem with constraints. Since this utility maximization problem has the same equilibrium conditions as a multi-class user equilibrium traffic assignment problem with elastic demand, both transport demand forecasting and benefit estimation can be carried out in the same framework. By assuming a certain form for the utility function, the road network model can estimate the prohibitive price, so the proposed method is convenient for estimating opportunity loss due to disruption of origin-destination connection in the event of a natural disaster. Furthermore, the values of travel time and travel time reliability are estimated endogenously in the proposed method; thus, changes in these values can be reflected in the benefit estimation. A numerical experiment demonstrates the method presented in this study.
• Development of river planning tools considering large-scale spatial and temporal non-linear characteristics in flood risks

  Japan Society for the Promotion of Science：Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)

  Date (from‐to) : 2013/04 -2017/03 

  Author : Kimura Ichiro

   

  To enable a large-scale river planning considered connections of whole river basin, we developed novel numerical and mathematical tools, and checked their validity by applying them to flood events with different temporal and spatial scales. The tools are composed of flood physics model, flood economic model and flood evacuation model. The flood physics model is the most fundamental part for the river planning, and is divided into 4 components, the large-scale inundation model, inner-outer inundation connected model, flood induced local flow model and tsunami model. Those tools were tested through the applications to past flood events with different scales, and the results were compared with observations. Such calibration process showed that the river planning aided by the proposed new tools are quite useful and practical. Some components of the results were assembled as free-software on an open-source platform to enable everyone in the world can use our result without limitations.
• An estimation model of value of travel time and of travel time reliability in road networks

  Japan Society for the Promotion of Science：Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists (B)

  Date (from‐to) : 2012/04 -2014/03 

  Author : UCHIDA Kenetsu

   

  This study proposes two network models which simultaneously estimate the value of travel time and of travel time reliability based on the risk-averse driver's route choice behaviour. The first model is formulated as a utility maximization problem under monotonic and separable link travel times, whereas the second model is formulated as a utility maximization problem under non-monotonic and non-separable link travel times. It is shown that the first model, which addresses independent stochastic capacity, is formulated as an optimization problem with a unique solution. The second model, which addresses both stochastic Origin-Destination (O-D) flow and stochastic link capacity, is formulated as a nonlinear complementary problem. The network models proposed in this study are consistent with those of studies that address the value of travel time and of travel time reliability based on utility maximization behaviour.
• Development of a transportation analysis method in cold regions

  Japan Society for the Promotion of Science：Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists (B)

  Date (from‐to) : 2009 -2011 

  Author : UCHIDA Kenetsu

   

  In this study, a model which addresses the passenger's travel behavior under uncertainties has been developed for the purpose of analyzing travel time reliability in winter transport network. The uncertainties addressed in the model are those of traffic capacity, travel demand and the passenger's perception of travel time. Railway transport network as well as road transport network has been addressed in the model.
• 公共交通を考慮した積雪寒冷地の冬期路面管理システムの開発

  日本学術振興会：科学研究費助成事業 若手研究(B)

  Date (from‐to) : 2006 -2007 

  Author : 内田 賢悦

   

  北海道のような積雪寒冷地では,夏期と冬期の交通行動を観察すると,交通機関の選択率が変化することが既存調査から明らかとなっている.たとえば,軌道系交通機関の選択率は冬期に増加し,これとは逆に道路交通の選択率は減少する.これは,冬期には道路が雪に覆われ,滑りやすい状態になるだけではなく,堆雪により有効幅員が減少するため,こうした現象が影響して,道路交通のサービスレベルが大きく低下するためと考えられてきた.したがって,積雪寒冷地の冬期の交通行動を包括的に捉えるためには,除・排雪に代表される冬期路面管理を考える必要があり,さらには,道路交通以外の交通機関への影響に配慮しなければならない.本研究では,冬期路面管理レベルが交通行動に与える影響を包括的に表現する交通モデルの構築を行い,交通ネットワーク上の社会的費用が最小化される冬期路面管理レベルを検討している.本モデルでは,冬期路面管理費用と交通ネットワーク上を移動する人の時間費用の和を社会的費用と捉え,それを最小化する問題(NDP: Network Design Problem)として交通現象を定式化している.本研究で定式化したNDPでは,冬期路面管理レベルが変化すると人々の交通行動,たとえば,交通機関選択,経路選択等が変化し,これは確率的均衡条件によって表現される.したがって,一般的にNDPは,均衡制約付き最適化問題として定式化されているが,本研究では,確率的均衡条件に対する感度分析に基づくアルゴリズムも示している.数値実験を行った結果,冬期路面管理レベルによる人々の交通行動の変化が再現できることを確認し,さらには,最適な冬期路面管理レベル,すなわち,社会的費用を最小化する冬期路面管理レベルを求めることが可能であることを確認した.
• A Study on LCC reduction technique for traffic infrastructure under the condition of antifreezing admixture usage

  Japan Society for the Promotion of Science：Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (A)

  Date (from‐to) : 2004 -2006 

  Author : UEDA Tamon, KANIE Shunji, NAWA Toyoharu, UCHIDA Kenetsu, HASIMOTO Yuichi, SATO Yasuhiko

   

  The following conclusions can be drawn. (1)A model for evaluating life cycle cost of pavements considering winter road traffic situation was proposed. An algorithm for the model which was developed by applying the sensitivity analysis of the probit stochastic user equilibrium (PSUE) was also proposed. Drivers' route choice behavior induced by deterioration of surface condition of pavements, change in traffic capacities brought by repair works in summer, and change in traffic capacities brought by antifreezing admixture dispersion in winter was endogenously expressed in the model. As a result, a plan for repair works and dispersion of antifreezing admixture which minimizes the life cycle cost by taking above mentioned driviers' behavior into account was obtained by carrying out a numerical experiment. (2)The integrated database combining the data of varieties, such as the road surface condition, the drive condition, the weather information and so on was created. As a case study using this database, the research solved the relation between the road surface condition and the drive condition in winter, and showed that the useful information to the traffic administrator and the road user could be created. This result showed the validity of the anti-freezing agent in the case of many, and clarified further the conditions on which that effect fades. (3)A calculation example of 2 dimensional Moving Element Method (MEM) with a vehicle model was introduced and it is verified that an interactive behavior between a vehicle and plate can be successfully analyzed by this method. The developed MEM has following advantages against conventional time-domain FEM for continuous structure under the loading due to a moving vehicle, (a) MEM can fix the loading position in the model regardless of time elapsingwhereas FEM needs large model corresponding to the moving range of the vehicle, (b) Since limited area or length near the loading point is finitely modeled for MEM, the degrees of freedom required for the analysis become smaller than those for a conventional FEM. (4)Damage evaluation method for infrastructure based on fractal analysis was developed. (5)A bond model for FRP sheet which can consider the influence of Young's modulus of resign and sheet was developed. (6)Surface protective agent which can penetrate into 40 mm depth from concrete surface was developed.
• Development of Highway Maintenance System using Deterministic Model for Structure Degradation in Cold Region

  Japan Society for the Promotion of Science：Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (A)

  Date (from‐to) : 2002 -2004 

  Author : KAGAYA Seiichi, OBATA Takashi, NAWA Toyoharu, SATO Yasuhiko, HASHIMOTO Yuichi, HAGIWARA Toru

   

  The influences from dispersion of antifireezing admixture, toward function of road transport and toward deterioration of road facilities, are analyzed in this study. This study aimes for the enhancement of systems of operation and maintenance for dealing with the influences. Firstly, an examination on the technologies of operation and maintenance for road network which support transport system is made. Then, a Web-based database system which can capture the real road traffic situation in winter, both temperaly and spatialy, is developed. Finally, an examination on the optimal amount of antifreezing admixture dispersion problem considering the changes in modal shares made by passengers is also carried out. An efficient usage of antifreezing admixture will be brought out by both technologies regarding the effective road maintenance, and regarding the control of passengers' travel behaviors determined by characteristics of transport network. A detailed mechanism of deterioration in concrete structure caused by antifreezing admixture is captured. An examination on the strengthening resistibility to penetration of sodium into cement, which is known as main material of concrete, is carried out, new tangible method for that is then developed. An examination on priority decision making system for maintenance and repair works is carried out by taking steel structure as an example. Furthermore, a development of diversification risk system targeted to destruction of structure, by taking disaster as am example, is made an attemp. Those works will make it possible to develop both structures which are hard to be deteriorated by sodium, and well-designed structure management system. Some important achievements, which could contribute to a development of road management system, have been made in this study by assuming usage of antifreezing admixture. However, a development of comprehensive management system comprised of technologies mentioned above are intended for in the first stage, only indication on the direction toward the comprehensive system is made against our objectives. Some examinations on what kinds of effects are botained by organizing the technologies dealt with in the present study will be made in the fixture.

Educational Activities

Teaching Experience