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Last Updated :2024/07/25

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Master

Affiliation (Master)

  • Faculty of Economics and Business　Division of Modern Economics and Management　Economic Analysis

Affiliation (Master)

  • Faculty of Economics and Business　Division of Modern Economics and Management　Economic Analysis

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Profile and Settings

Affiliation

  • Hokkaido University, Graduate School of Economics and Business Administration, Associate Professor

Degree

  • Ph.D. in Economics（2018/08 Penn State University）

Profile and Settings

  • Name (Japanese)

    Makioka

  • Name (Kana)

    Ryo

  • Name

    202101020806275322

Alternate Names

Affiliation

  • Hokkaido University, Graduate School of Economics and Business Administration, Associate Professor

Achievement

Research Areas

  • Humanities & social sciences / Economic policy

Research Experience

  • 2018/09 - 2021/08 独立行政法人 経済産業研究所 研究員
  • 2015/05 - 2015/08 International Monetary Fund (IMF) Western Hemisphere Department Summer Internship

Education

  • 2012/09 - 2018/08  ペンシルバニア州立大学
  • 2009/04 - 2012/08  Hitotsubashi University  Graduate School of Economics  Applied Economics Area
  • 2005/04 - 2009/03  Waseda University  School of Social Sciences

Published Papers

  • Paul I. Ko, Ryo Makioka, Karim Nchare
    WIDER Working Paper 1798-7237 2023/08
  • The Impact of Export Controls on International Trade: Evidence from the Japan–Korea Trade Dispute in Semiconductor Industry
    Ryo Makioka, Hongyong Zhang
    RIETI Discussion Paper 2023/06
  • Estimating Firm-level Production Functions with Spatial Dependence in Output, Input, and Productivity
    Pao-Li Chang, Ryo Makioka, Bo Lin Ng, Zhenlin Yang
    RIETI Discussion Paper 2023/03
  • Karim Nchare, Ryo Makioka
    Journal of Econometric Methods 2022/08/19 [Refereed]
     
    Abstract This paper investigates the identification and estimation of the quantile treatment effect in a difference in differences (DID) setting when treatment is provided only to qualified individuals at a certain point in time and the qualification is time-varying. The time-varying qualification may affect an outcome variable even when the actual effect of treatment is zero. We show how to account for this “movers effect” bias and propose the quantile treatment effect on “in-stayers” that are qualified both before and after the treatment. The estimate is identified under three main assumptions: (i) panel data availability, (ii) a distributional common trend assumption conditional on covariates, and (iii) a copula stability assumption. We then apply our method to estimate the effects of an increase in the benefits of the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) on recipients’ food expenditure shares. The results show significant heterogeneity and highlight the importance of accounting for time-varying qualification.
  • The Values of Export Promotion: The Case of the Canton Fair during the SARS Epidemic
    Xue Bai, Hong Ma, Ryo Makioka
    RIETI Discussion Paper 2022/08
  • Kisho Hoshi, Hiroyuki Kasahara, Ryo Makioka, Michio Suzuki, Satoshi Tanaka
    Journal of the Japanese and International Economies 63 101170 - 101170 0889-1583 2021/10 [Refereed]
  • Kisho Hoshi, Hiroyuki Kasahara, Ryo Makioka, Michio Suzuki, Satoshi Tanaka
    The Japanese Economic Review 72 (4) 683 - 716 1352-4739 2021/08/25 [Refereed]
     
    AbstractThis paper quantitatively analyzes the trade-off between job losses and the spread of COVID-19 in Japan. We derive an empirical specification from the social planner’s resource constraint under the susceptible, infected, recovered, and deaths (SIRD) model and estimate how job losses and the case growth rate are related to people’s mobility using the Japanese prefecture-level panel data on confirmed cases, involuntary job losses, people’s mobility, and teleworkability. Our findings are summarized as follows. First, we find that a decrease in mobility driven by containment policies is associated with an increase in involuntary job separations, but the high teleworkability mitigates the negative effect of decreased mobility on job losses. Second, estimating how the case growth is related to people’s mobility and past cases, we find that the case growth rate is positively related to an increase in people’s mobility but negatively associated with past confirmed cases. Third, using these estimates, we provide a quantitative analysis of the trade-off between job losses and the number of confirmed cases. Taking Tokyo in July 2020 as a benchmark, we find that the cost of saving 1 job per month is 2.3 more confirmed cases per month in the short run of 1 month. When we consider a trade-off for 3 months from July to September of 2020, protecting 1 job per month requires 6.6 more confirmed cases per month. Therefore, the trade-off becomes worse substantially in the longer run of 3 months, reflecting the exponential case growth when the people’s mobility is high.
  • Ryo Makioka
    Review of Development Economics 25 (2) 630 - 653 1363-6669 2021/05 [Refereed]
  • Ryo Makioka
    Review of International Economics 0965-7576 2021/04/26 [Refereed]
  • Decomposing the Effect of SNAP
    Ryo Makioka
    2019/12

Books etc

Presentations

  • Ryo Makioka
    Midwest International Trade Conference  2024/05
  • The Impact of Export Control on International Trade: Evidence from the Japan-Korea Trade Dispute in Semiconductor Industry  [Not invited]
    Ryo Makioka
    IEFS Japan Annual Meeting 2023 in Memory of Prof. Fumio Dei  2023/11
  • The Impact of Export Control on International Trade: Evidence from the Japan-Korea Trade Dispute in Semiconductor Industry  [Invited]
    Ryo Makioka
    CIER Conference, Geopolitics: the adjustment of global supply chain and policy  2023/10
  • The Values of Export Promotion: A Case of Canton Fair during the SARS Epidemic
    Ryo Makioka
    Workshop on International Trade, FDI, and Innovation (Kobe University)  2023/05
  • The Values of Export Promotion: A Case of Canton Fair during the SARS Epidemic
    Ryo Makioka
    John Morgan Penn State Alumni Conference (Penn State University)  2023/05
  • The Impact of Export Control on International Trade: Evidence from the Japan-Korea Trade Dispute in Semiconductor Industry  [Invited]
    Ryo Makioka
    Trade and Global Value Chains in Times of Insecurity (the World Bank and the Asia School of Business)  2023/05
  • The Values of Export Promotion: A Case of Canton Fair during the SARS Epidemic
    Ryo Makioka
    The Twenty-First Joint Seminar of Yonsei University and Hokkaido University (Hokkaido University)  2022/10
  • The Values of Export Promotion: A Case of Canton Fair during the SARS Epidemic
    牧岡亮
    小樽商科大学土曜研究会  2022/07
  • The Values of Export Promotion: A Case of Canton Fair during the SARS Epidemic
    Ryo Makioka
    Asian Pacific Trade Seminar  2022/06
  • The Values of Export Promotion: A Case of Canton Fair during the SARS Epidemic
    Ryo Makioka
    Asian Meeting of the Econometric Society in China 2022  2022/06
  • The Values of Export Promotion: A Case of Canton Fair during the SARS Epidemic
    牧岡亮
    日本国際経済学会関東支部研究会  2022/05
  • The Values of Export Promotion: A Case of Canton Fair during the SARS Epidemic
    牧岡亮
    中京大学経済研究所セミナー  2022/01
  • The Values of Face-to-Face Communication in Exports: A Case of Canton Fair during the SARS Epidemic
    Ryo Makioka
    Keio-Kyoto Joint International Trade (KKIT) Webinar  2021/11
  • The Heterogeneous Effects of COVID-19 on Labor Markets: People’s Movement and Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions
    牧岡亮
    東京大学金融教育研究センター・日本銀行調査統計局 第9回共催コンファレンス 「ウィズコロナ・ポストコロナの日本経済」  2021/11
  • Do Trade Fairs promote Trade
    Ryo Makioka
    13th FIW-Research Conference 'International Economics'  2021/02
  • THE OVERLOOKED UNCERTAINTY-REDUCTION BENEFIT OF FREE TRADE AGREEMENTS DURING CRISES: EVIDENCE FROM JAPAN
    牧岡亮
    日本国際経済学会第79回全国大会  2020/09
  • The Impact of Export Promotion with Matchmaking on Exports and Service Outsourcing
    Ryo Makioka
    Winter International Trade Seminar (WITS) 2021  2020/03

Association Memberships

  • American Economic Association   Econometric Society   日本国際経済学会   日本経済学会   

Research Projects

  • 日本学術振興会：科学研究費助成事業
    Date (from‐to) : 2024/04 -2029/03 
    Author : 牧岡 亮
  • Japan Society for the Promotion of Science：Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research
    Date (from‐to) : 2024/04 -2028/03 
    Author : 馬 岩, 牧岡 亮, 朱 連明, 古澤 泰治, 荒 知宏
  • Japan Society for the Promotion of Science：Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research
    Date (from‐to) : 2023/06 -2026/03 
    Author : 遠藤 正寛, 東田 啓作, 牧岡 亮
  • Japan Society for the Promotion of Science：Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research Grant-in-Aid for Early-Career Scientists
    Date (from‐to) : 2021/04 -2024/03 
    Author : 牧岡 亮
     
    本研究課題では、中国広東省で2003年春に集団発生した重症急性呼吸症候群（SARS）と、同感染症が中国広州交易会への海外バイヤーの参加に与えた影響を自然実験として用い、輸出支援の効果を求めることを目的としている。2021年度は、同課題に対して、広州交易会に参加する企業のリストと中国税関統計を接合したデータを作成し、回帰分析を行った。その結果第一に、展示会参加企業の輸出国数に対して、SARSの負の影響を観察した一方、輸出製品数、輸出額に対する影響については、有意な結果が得られなかった。これは、SARSにより広州交易会に参加する海外バイヤーの数が激減することで、SARSが起こっていない通常期の展示会参加と比較して、SARS期に参加した中国企業が海外バイヤーとマッチし難かったことによると解釈できる。 また第二に、輸出国数に対する負の影響は、海外の買い手との情報の障壁が大きいと考えられる、非貿易企業や小規模企業で特に大きいことがわかった。これは、上記の海外バイヤーが展示会に参加しないことの負の影響が、情報障壁やマッチすることの費用を高めることを通じたものであることを示唆している。さらに第三に、これらの負の影響は、SARS期の展示会から三か月後から観察されたものの、一年後には観測されなくなっていることがわかった。この効果の短期性は、輸出支援の効果分析に関する先行研究である、Cadot et al. (2015)の発見と整合的である。 これらの結果は論文としてまとめられ、すでにいくつかの大学のセミナーで報告した。
  • 共同利用・共同研究拠点事業プロジェクト研究
    一橋大学：
    Date (from‐to) : 2022/04 -2023/03

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