The impact of export controls on international trade: Evidence from the Japan–Korea trade dispute in semiconductor industry
Ryo Makioka, Hongyong Zhang
Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, 74, 101336, 101336, Elsevier BV, Dec. 2024, [Peer-reviewed]
Scientific journal

Impact of trade and structural change on the sub-Saharan African economies
Paul I. Ko, Ryo Makioka, Karim Nchare
WIDER Working Paper, UNU-WIDER, Aug. 2023, ［Internationally co-authored］

Estimating Firm-level Production Functions with Spatial Dependence in Output, Input, and Productivity　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　
Pao-Li Chang, Ryo Makioka, Bo Lin Ng, Zhenlin Yang
RIETI Discussion Paper, Mar. 2023, ［Internationally co-authored］

Quantile Difference in Differences with Time-Varying Qualification in Panel Data
Karim Nchare, Ryo Makioka
Journal of Econometric Methods, Walter de Gruyter GmbH, 19 Aug. 2022, [Peer-reviewed], ［Internationally co-authored］, [International Magazine]
Scientific journal, Abstract

This paper investigates the identification and estimation of the quantile treatment effect in a difference in differences (DID) setting when treatment is provided only to qualified individuals at a certain point in time and the qualification is time-varying. The time-varying qualification may affect an outcome variable even when the actual effect of treatment is zero. We show how to account for this “movers effect” bias and propose the quantile treatment effect on “in-stayers” that are qualified both before and after the treatment. The estimate is identified under three main assumptions: (i) panel data availability, (ii) a distributional common trend assumption conditional on covariates, and (iii) a copula stability assumption. We then apply our method to estimate the effects of an increase in the benefits of the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) on recipients’ food expenditure shares. The results show significant heterogeneity and highlight the importance of accounting for time-varying qualification.

The Values of Export Promotion: The Case of the Canton Fair during the SARS Epidemic　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　
Xue Bai, Hong Ma, Ryo Makioka
RIETI Discussion Paper, Aug. 2022, [Lead author], ［Internationally co-authored］

The Heterogeneous Effects of COVID-19 on Labor Markets: People’s Movement and Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions
Kisho Hoshi, Hiroyuki Kasahara, Ryo Makioka, Michio Suzuki, Satoshi Tanaka
Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, 63, 101170, 101170, Elsevier BV, Oct. 2021, [Peer-reviewed], ［Internationally co-authored］, [International Magazine]
Scientific journal

Trade-off between job losses and the spread of COVID-19 in Japan
Kisho Hoshi, Hiroyuki Kasahara, Ryo Makioka, Michio Suzuki, Satoshi Tanaka
The Japanese Economic Review, 72, 4, 683, 716, Springer Science and Business Media LLC, 25 Aug. 2021, [Peer-reviewed], ［Internationally co-authored］, [International Magazine]
Scientific journal, This paper quantitatively analyzes the trade-off between job losses and the spread of COVID-19 in Japan. We derive an empirical specification from the social planner’s resource constraint under the susceptible, infected, recovered, and deaths (SIRD) model and estimate how job losses and the case growth rate are related to people’s mobility using the Japanese prefecture-level panel data on confirmed cases, involuntary job losses, people’s mobility, and teleworkability. Our findings are summarized as follows. First, we find that a decrease in mobility driven by containment policies is associated with an increase in involuntary job separations, but the high teleworkability mitigates the negative effect of decreased mobility on job losses. Second, estimating how the case growth is related to people’s mobility and past cases, we find that the case growth rate is positively related to an increase in people’s mobility but negatively associated with past confirmed cases. Third, using these estimates, we provide a quantitative analysis of the trade-off between job losses and the number of confirmed cases. Taking Tokyo in July 2020 as a benchmark, we find that the cost of saving 1 job per month is 2.3 more confirmed cases per month in the short run of 1 month. When we consider a trade-off for 3 months from July to September of 2020, protecting 1 job per month requires 6.6 more confirmed cases per month. Therefore, the trade-off becomes worse substantially in the longer run of 3 months, reflecting the exponential case growth when the people’s mobility is high.

The impact of anti‐sweatshop activism on employment
Ryo Makioka
Review of Development Economics, 25, 2, 630, 653, Wiley, May 2021, [Peer-reviewed], [International Magazine]
Scientific journal

The impact of export promotion with matchmaking on exports and service outsourcing
Ryo Makioka
Review of International Economics, Wiley, 26 Apr. 2021, [Peer-reviewed], [International Magazine]
Scientific journal

Decomposing the Effect of SNAP　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　
Ryo Makioka
Dec. 2019

成熟社会の発展論 : 日本経済再浮揚戦略
Tran, Van Tho, 苅込, 俊二, 第10章「持続的成長と対内直接投資」、第13章「持続的成長の条件」
文眞堂, Apr. 2024, 9784830952548, xiii, 245p, Japanese, 42506596, [Contributor]

経済産業政策におけるＥＢＰＭ
角谷和彦, 橋本由紀, 牧岡亮, 第10章
日経BP日本経済新聞出版,日経BPマーケティング (発売), Dec. 2022, 9784296115266, xxiv, 434p, Japanese, [Contributor]

Women, work, and economic growth : leveling the playing field
Kochhar, Kalpana, Jain-Chandra, Sonali, Newiak, Monique, Chapter 10B
International Monetary Fund, 2017, 9781513516103, xv, 332 p., English, [Contributor]

The Values of Export Promotion: A Case of Canton Fair during the SARS Epidemic　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　
Ryo Makioka
Economics Seminar Series, 01 Apr. 2025, Haverford College, English, Oral presentation
Haverford College, [Invited], [International presentation], ［Internationally co-authored］

The Values of Export Promotion: A Case of Canton Fair during the SARS Epidemic　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　
Ryo Makioka
Midwest Trade Conference, 18 Oct. 2024

The Values of Export Promotion: A Case of Canton Fair during the SARS Epidemic　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　
Ryo Makioka
Recent Advances in Trade Theory and Empirics, 04 Oct. 2024
[Invited]

The Impact of Export Control on International Trade: Evidence from the Japan-Korea Trade Dispute in Semiconductor Industry
Ryo Makioka
Midwest International Trade Conference, 17 May 2024, English, Oral presentation
42506596

The Impact of Export Control on International Trade: Evidence from the Japan-Korea Trade Dispute in Semiconductor Industry　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　
Ryo Makioka
IEFS Japan Annual Meeting 2023 in Memory of Prof. Fumio Dei, 25 Nov. 2023

The Impact of Export Control on International Trade: Evidence from the Japan-Korea Trade Dispute in Semiconductor Industry　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　
Ryo Makioka
CIER Conference, Geopolitics: the adjustment of global supply chain and policy, Oct. 2023, English
[Invited]

The Values of Export Promotion: A Case of Canton Fair during the SARS Epidemic　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　
Ryo Makioka
Workshop on International Trade, FDI, and Innovation (Kobe University), May 2023, English, Oral presentation

The Values of Export Promotion: A Case of Canton Fair during the SARS Epidemic　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　
Ryo Makioka
John Morgan Penn State Alumni Conference (Penn State University), May 2023, English, Oral presentation

The Impact of Export Control on International Trade: Evidence from the Japan-Korea Trade Dispute in Semiconductor Industry　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　
Ryo Makioka
Trade and Global Value Chains in Times of Insecurity (the World Bank and the Asia School of Business), May 2023, English, Oral presentation
[Invited]

The Values of Export Promotion: A Case of Canton Fair during the SARS Epidemic　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　
Ryo Makioka
The Twenty-First Joint Seminar of Yonsei University and Hokkaido University (Hokkaido University), Oct. 2022, English, Oral presentation

The Values of Export Promotion: A Case of Canton Fair during the SARS Epidemic　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　
牧岡亮
小樽商科大学土曜研究会, Jul. 2022, Oral presentation

The Values of Export Promotion: A Case of Canton Fair during the SARS Epidemic　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　
Ryo Makioka
Asian Pacific Trade Seminar, Jun. 2022, English, Oral presentation

The Values of Export Promotion: A Case of Canton Fair during the SARS Epidemic　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　
Ryo Makioka
Asian Meeting of the Econometric Society in China 2022, Jun. 2022, English, Oral presentation

The Values of Export Promotion: A Case of Canton Fair during the SARS Epidemic　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　
牧岡亮
日本国際経済学会関東支部研究会, May 2022, English

The Values of Export Promotion: A Case of Canton Fair during the SARS Epidemic　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　
牧岡亮
中京大学経済研究所セミナー, Jan. 2022

The Values of Face-to-Face Communication in Exports: A Case of Canton Fair during the SARS Epidemic　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　
Ryo Makioka
Keio-Kyoto Joint International Trade (KKIT) Webinar, Nov. 2021, English, Oral presentation

The Heterogeneous Effects of COVID-19 on Labor Markets: People’s Movement and Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　
牧岡亮
東京大学金融教育研究センター・日本銀行調査統計局 第9回共催コンファレンス 「ウィズコロナ・ポストコロナの日本経済」, Nov. 2021, Oral presentation

Do Trade Fairs promote Trade　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　
Ryo Makioka
13th FIW-Research Conference 'International Economics', Feb. 2021, English, Oral presentation

THE OVERLOOKED UNCERTAINTY-REDUCTION BENEFIT OF FREE TRADE AGREEMENTS DURING CRISES: EVIDENCE FROM JAPAN　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　
牧岡亮
日本国際経済学会第79回全国大会, Sep. 2020

The Impact of Export Promotion with Matchmaking on Exports and Service Outsourcing　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　
Ryo Makioka
Winter International Trade Seminar (WITS) 2021, Mar. 2020, English, Oral presentation

Feb. 2023 - Mar. 2024
American Economic Association　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　

Jan. 2023 - Jan. 2024
Econometric Society