Exit expectations and the optimal design of a currency union
Yuta Saito
Economics Letters, 247, 112143, 112143, Elsevier BV, 2025年02月, ［査読有り］, ［筆頭著者］, ［国際誌］
研究論文（学術雑誌）, This paper explores the impact of exit expectations on the optimal design of a currency union. The union is composed of core member countries, which face the time-inconsistency problem, and peripheral countries, which do not. Peripheral members play a crucial role as a commitment mechanism, enhancing the policy credibility of core countries. We demonstrate that an increase in exit expectations leads to a higher optimal number of peripheral members from the perspective of the core countries. This suggests that heterogeneous membership may be advantageous, particularly in times of political uncertainty when the public anticipates potential exits from the currency union.

Expectations for the MPC chair and interest rate persistence
Yuta Saito
Mathematical Social Sciences, 128, 25, 30, Elsevier BV, 2024年03月, ［査読有り］, ［筆頭著者］, ［国際誌］
研究論文（学術雑誌）, This paper examines how the public’s expectations for the chair of the monetary policy committee influence policy outcomes. We show that the expectation that the chair will propose their ideal policy at the meeting can lead a majority of the committee to reject the policy change. The result suggests that the expectation of the chair’s agenda setting is a determinant of interest rate persistence.

Capital taxation with parental incentives
Yuta Saito, Yosuke Takeda
Journal of Public Economic Theory, 24, 6, 1310, 1341, Wiley, 2022年12月, ［査読有り］, ［筆頭著者］, ［国際誌］
研究論文（学術雑誌）, This paper studies capital taxation in an overlapping generation model where parents regard their children as impatient. The intergenerational time-preference heterogeneity leads parents to engage in parental monetary transfers designed to encourage their children's asset accumulation (i.e., parental transfers which amount are contingent on the children's savings). In this setup, the utilitarian government's time preference is higher than that of the child generation but lower than that of the parent generation. Hence, from the government's perspective, the strategic parental transfers give too many incentives to accumulate assets. As a result, the government imposes a positive marginal tax on assets to disincentivize the younger generation's saving motives. By contrast, if parents do not have paternalistic preferences and do not make strategic parental transfers, the government imposes a zero marginal tax on assets.

A Note on Time Inconsistency and Endogenous Exits from a Currency Union
Yuta Saito
Games, 13, 2, 21, 21, MDPI AG, 2022年02月, ［査読有り］, ［筆頭著者］, ［国際誌］
研究論文（学術雑誌）, This paper investigates the effects of members’ exits from a currency union on the credibility of the common currency. In our currency union model, the inflation rate of the common currency is determined by majority voting among N member countries that are heterogeneous with respect to their output shocks. Once an inflation rate of the common currency has been selected, each member decides whether to remain in the currency union or not. If a member decides to exit, it has to pay a fixed social cost and individually chooses the inflation rate of its currency. Unlike previous research on this topic, we focus on the possibility of achieving an optimal outcome, which generates no inflation bias, when more than one member is expected to leave the currency union. We show that the optimal outcome can only be achieved if no members leave the currency union.

The role of vaccination in a model of asset pricing during a pandemic
Yuta Saito
PLOS ONE, 17, 4, e0266511, e0266511, Public Library of Science (PLoS), 2022年, ［査読有り］, ［筆頭著者］, ［国際誌］
研究論文（学術雑誌）, This paper examines the effect of pandemic vaccination on asset prices in a simple asset pricing model à la Lucas (1978). In this model, asset prices depend on susceptible individuals’ saving motives to insure against a reduction in labour income due to getting the virus. Hence distributing vaccine reduces precautionary saving motives and asset prices. This implies that reducing the income gap between susceptible and infected individuals, such as by cash handouts, eases the negative effect of vaccine supply on asset prices.

Parental transfers under ambiguity
Yuta Saito
Applied Economics Letters, 29, 9, 773, 779, Informa {UK} Limited, 2022年, ［査読有り］, ［筆頭著者］, ［国際誌］
研究論文（学術雑誌）, This note introduces parental uncertainty into parent–child monetary transfers. A parent questions the probability distribution of a child’s future economic success. As a result, the parent endogenously tilts his/her subjective probability model away from an approximating probability model. In this case, parental transfers increase with model uncertainty, thereby reducing the child’s effort and probability of economic success. This theoretical result raises several empirical questions, of which two are as follows. For one thing, informed parents (e.g. those who hold the same job as their child) transfer less money, and their child exerts more effort. Another is that economic uncertainty (e.g. recessions or pandemics) prompts higher parental transfer payments and reduces the child’s effort.

Asset pricing during pandemic lockdown
Yuta Saito, Jun Sakamoto
Research in International Business and Finance, 58, 101449, 101449, Elsevier BV, 2021年12月, ［査読有り］, ［筆頭著者］, ［国際誌］
研究論文（学術雑誌）, This paper examines the implications of lockdown policies during early stages of pandemics for asset prices. We build a simple susceptible-infected-recovered model with microeconomic foundations, which allows us to obtain qualitative results with economic implications. In our model, lockdown policies reduce (i) labour income by decreasing working hours and (ii) precautionary savings by decreasing susceptible agents’ probability of getting infected in the future. We qualitatively show that strengthening lockdown measures negatively impacts asset prices at the time of implementation. Our empirical analysis using data from advanced countries supports this finding. Depending on parameter values, our numerical analysis displays a V-shaped recovery of asset prices and an L-shaped recession of consumption. The rapid recovery of asset prices occurs only if the lockdown policies are insufficiently stringent to reduce the number of new periodic cases. This finding implies the possibility that lenient lockdowns have contributed to rapid stock market recovery at the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Political Representation and Legislative Bargaining over Redistribution
Yuta Saito
International Advances in Economic Research, 25, 3, 251, 262, Springer Science and Business Media LLC, 2019年08月01日, ［筆頭著者］, ［国際誌］
研究論文（学術雑誌）

Bargaining over monetary policy and optimal committee composition in a currency union　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　
Yuta Saito
Economics Bulletin, 38, 4, 1986, 1996, 2018年, ［査読有り］, ［筆頭著者］

Taxing Platforms with Multi-Homing　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　
Yuta Saito, Yeming Zhang, mimeo, 2025年08月, ［筆頭著者, 最終著者, 責任著者］

Historical Relationships and International Market Return Predictability: The Role of the UK in the Former British Colonies, Protectorates and Mandates　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　
Takuro Hidaka, Yuta Saito, Jun Sakamoto, Discussion Papers in Economics and Business 21-08-Rev, Osaka University, Graduate School of Economics, 2023年10月

A Model of Intergenerational Legislative Bargaining over Redistribution　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　
Yuta Saito, 101, 2021年06月
英語

A Note on Policy (In) Variance of Risk Aversion　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　
Yuta Saito, 101, 2021年06月
英語

Exit Expectations, Time Inconsistency and the Optimal Design of a Currency Union　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　
Yuta Saito
American Economic Association (Online), 2022年01月, 英語
2022年01月, アメリカ合衆国, ［国際会議］

Capital Income Taxation with Parental Incentives　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　
Yuta Saito, Yosuke Takeda
American Economic Association (Atlanta), 2019年01月, 英語
アメリカ合衆国, ［国際会議］

Optimal Income Taxation in an OLG Economy with Parental Transfers　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　
Yosuke Takeda, Yuta Saito
Western Economic Association International (Singapore), 2016年01月, 英語
シンガポール共和国, ［国際会議］

2022年 - 現在
日本経済学会　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　

2021年 - 現在
Association for Public Economic Theory　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　

2019年 - 現在
神戸大学金融研究会　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　

2018年 - 現在
American Economic Association