Researcher basic information

• Ph.D, Tokyo Institute of Technology, Mar. 2015

• https://researchmap.jp/k_oshiro?lang=en

• https://www.ees.hokudai.ac.jp/energy/

• Environmental Science/Agriculture Science, Environmental policy and social systems
• Social Infrastructure (Civil Engineering, Architecture, Disaster Prevention), Environmental systems for civil engineering

• Master's degree program, Graduate School of Environmental Science
• Doctoral (PhD) degree program, Graduate School of Environmental Science

Research activity information

• Apr. 2025, 文部科学省, 科学技術分野の文部科学大臣表彰 若手科学者賞
  脱炭素社会実現に向けたエネルギーシステムのモデリング研究
  大城賢
• Mar. 2025, 公益財団法人市村清新技術財団, 市村地球環境学術賞 功績賞
  革新的エネルギー技術を考慮した脱炭素シナリオの構築と経済影響
  藤森 真一郎;大城 賢
• Sep. 2023, IOP Publishing, IOP Trusted Reviewer
• Sep. 2021, 土木学会 地球環境委員会, 地球環境論文賞（JSCE GEE Award）
  アジアにおける温室効果ガス短期削減目標が2050年までのエネルギー投資に及ぼす影響
  大城賢;藤森真一郎;長谷川知子;明石修

• Development of a computable general equilibrium model representing direct air capture and carbon dioxide utilization
  Osamu Nishiura; Shinichiro Fujimori; Ken Oshiro
  Energy and Climate Change, 7, 100250, Elsevier BV, Dec. 2026, [Peer-reviewed]
  Scientific journal
• Challenges and opportunities of the full phase-out of fossil fuels under the 1.5 °C goal
  Shotaro Mori; Siddharth Joshi; Volker Krey; Ken Oshiro; Oliver Fricko; Takuya Hara; Shinichiro Fujimori
  Nature Communications, 17, 1, 4379, Springer Science and Business Media LLC, 18 May 2026, [Peer-reviewed]
  Scientific journal, Abstract
  
  The COP28 decision called for transitioning away from fossil fuels, sparking a growing interest in their full phase-out. However, energy system transformation pathways towards a phase-out of fossil fuels, which may reduce the reliance on carbon dioxide removal to meet the 1.5 °C goal, remain unclear. Here, we employ two global energy system models to explore energy system transformations and the challenges and opportunities associated with attaining a full phase-out of fossil fuels. We found that phasing out fossil fuels by 2050 would require accelerating direct and indirect electrification, involving 1.6–1.8-fold increases in power generation compared to the conventional cost-effective 1.5 °C pathways. This transition from cost-effective to fossil fuel phase-out pathways would increase energy supply investments by up to 34% over this century and require accelerated deployment of solar and wind power, as well as electrolysers. Despite opportunities including lower reliance on carbon dioxide removal and increasing probability of returning to 1.5 °C after temperature overshoot, these additional requirements imply that international society must approach the transition towards zero-fossil energy systems with strong determination.
• JMIP 2 Part 2: Technology Sensitivities in Japan's Power Sector Decarbonization
  Eamon Frazer; Tao Cao; Masahiro Sugiyama; Hiroto Shiraki; Shinichiro Fujimori; Kenichi Wada; Hiroshi Hamasaki; Etsushi Kato; Yuhji Matsuo; Osamu Nishiura; Tatsuya Okubo; Ken Oshiro; Takashi Otsuki; Fuminori Sano
  Energy and Climate Change, 7, 100244, Elsevier BV, Mar. 2026, [Peer-reviewed]
  Scientific journal
• Conflicted public perceptions of different net-zero mitigation pathways between feasibility and desirability
  Shinichiro Asayama; Shinichiro Fujimori; Ken Oshiro; Tomoko Hasegawa; Hiroto Shiraki; Masahiro Sugiyama
  Communications Sustainability, 1, 22, Springer Science and Business Media LLC, 26 Jan. 2026, [Peer-reviewed]
  Scientific journal
• JMIP2 Part 3: The pace of hydrogen and electricity adoption in Japan’s demand-side decarbonization
  Tao Cao; Eamon Frazer; Masahiro Sugiyama; Hiroto Shiraki; Shinichiro Fujimori; Kenichi Wada; Hiroshi Hamasaki; Etsushi Kato; Yuhji Matsuo; Osamu Nishiura; Tatsuya Okubo; Ken Oshiro; Takashi Otsuki; Fuminori Sano
  Energy and Climate Change, 6, 100223, Elsevier BV, Dec. 2025, [Peer-reviewed]
  Scientific journal
• JMIP 2 Part 1: Technology Uncertainty and Robustness in Japan’s Net-Zero Pathways
  Masahiro Sugiyama; Hiroto Shiraki; Shinichiro Fujimori; Kenichi Wada; Tao CAO; Eamon Frazer; Hiroshi Hamasaki; Etsushi Kato; Yuhji Matsuo; Osamu Nishiura; Tatsuya Okubo; Ken Oshiro; Takashi Otsuki; Fuminori Sano; Hiroki Yoshida
  Energy and Climate Change, 6, 100210, Elsevier BV, Dec. 2025, [Peer-reviewed]
  Scientific journal
• Morbidity changes induced by future air quality and demographic structure changes
  Hiroya Uchida; Koga Yamazaki; Satoshi Sekizawa; Shinichiro Fujimori; Ken Oshiro; Thanapat Jansakoo
  Atmospheric Environment: X, 28, 100396, Elsevier BV, Nov. 2025, [Peer-reviewed]
  Scientific journal
• 脱炭素シナリオの分析におけるエネルギーシステムモデルの時間解像度の検討
  坂田晴; 森翔太郎; 江藤瞳; 大城賢; 藤森真一郎
  土木学会論文集, 81, 27, 25-27037, Sep. 2025, [Peer-reviewed]
• 長期将来シナリオを用いたメタン濃度の変化が対流圏オゾン濃度に与える影響の評価
  渡邉大輝; 山崎航我; 大杉祐斗; 藤森真一郎; 大城賢
  土木学会論文集, 81, 27, 25-27036, Sep. 2025, [Peer-reviewed]
• 社会経済状況による日本の脱炭素化シナリオへの影響評価
  奥脇隆之介; 大城賢; 森翔太郎; 江藤瞳; 藤森真一郎
  土木学会論文集, 81, 27, 25-27038, Sep. 2025, [Peer-reviewed]
• Potential consequences of the international transfer of emission allowances under the updated national emissions targets by 2030
  Toshiki Tsutsui; Osamu Nishiura; Shinichiro Fujimori; Ken Oshiro
  Global Environmental Change Advances, 5, 100022, Elsevier BV, Sep. 2025, [Peer-reviewed]
  Scientific journal
• The multi-faceted global poverty and income inequality landscape in a decarbonizing world
  Shiya Zhao; Shinichiro Fujimori; Jihoon Min; Jarmo S. Kikstra; Tomoko Hasegawa; Ken Oshiro; Saritha Sudharmma Vishwanathan
  Cell Reports Sustainability, 2, 10, 100487, Elsevier BV, Aug. 2025, [Peer-reviewed]
  Scientific journal
• Comparison of global air pollution impacts across horizontal resolutions
  Thanapat Jansakoo; Ryouichi Watanabe; Akio Uetani; Satoshi Sekizawa; Shinichiro Fujimori; Tomoko Hasegawa; Ken Oshiro
  Atmospheric Environment: X, 24, 100303, Elsevier BV, Dec. 2024, [Peer-reviewed]
  Scientific journal
• Mid-century net-zero emissions pathways for Japan: Potential roles of global mitigation scenarios in informing national decarbonization strategies
  Ken Oshiro; Shinichiro Fujimori
  Energy and Climate Change, 5, 100128, Elsevier BV, Dec. 2024, [Peer-reviewed], [Lead author], [International Magazine]
  English, Scientific journal
• THE IMPACT OF FUTURE CHANGES IN AGRICULTURAL LAND DISTRIBUTION ON EMISSIONS OF AIR POLLUTANTS
  Koga YAMAZAKI; Shinichiro FUJIMORI; Ken OSHIRO
  Japanese Journal of JSCE, 80, 27, 24-27051, Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Sep. 2024, [Peer-reviewed]
  Scientific journal
• THE ROLE OF THE EAST ASIAN INTERNATIONAL POWER GRID IN THE NET-ZERO CO₂ EMISSIONS SCENARIO IN 2050
  Shotaro MORI; Ken OSHIRO; Shinichiro FUJIMORI
  Japanese Journal of JSCE, 80, 27, 24-27006, Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Sep. 2024, [Peer-reviewed]
  Scientific journal
• RESEARCH ON THE MACROECONOMIC IMPACT OF FINANCIAL SUPPORT FROM DEVELOPED COUNTRIES TO DEVELOPING COUNTRIES UNDER THE 1.5°C TARGET
  Reiho HAN; Shinichiro FUJIMORI; Toshiki TSUTSUI; Hiroki YOSHIDA; Osamu NISHIURA; Ken OSHIRO
  Japanese Journal of JSCE, 80, 27, 24-27005, Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Sep. 2024, [Peer-reviewed]
  Scientific journal
• IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION ON POVERTY, CONSIDERING CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS BY INCOME GROUP
  Yumi MARUTA; Shinichiro FUJIMORI; Junya TAKAKURA; Ken OSHIRO; Shiya ZHAO; Kiyoshi TAKAHASHI; Tomoko HASEGAWA
  Japanese Journal of JSCE, 80, 27, 24-27004, Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Sep. 2024, [Peer-reviewed]
  Scientific journal
• IMPACT ON HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION IN DECARBONIZATION SCENARIOS IN JAPAN CONSIDERING INCOME DISTRIBUTION
  Seiya KAWAGUCHI; Shinichiro FUJIMORI; Ken OSHIRO; Yumi MARUTA; Hiroki YOSHIDA; Shiya ZHAO; Tomoko HASEGAWA
  Japanese Journal of JSCE, 80, 27, 24-27002, Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Sep. 2024, [Peer-reviewed]
  Scientific journal
• ASSESSMENT OF THE SOCIETAL CONSTRAINTS ON THE AVAILABILITY OF CARBON DIOXIDE REMOVAL TECHNOLOGIES ON THE ENERGY SYSTEMS
  Hitomi ETO; Shotaro MORI; Hiroki SAITO; Ken OSHIRO; Shinichiro FUJIMORI
  Japanese Journal of JSCE, 80, 27, 24-27001, Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Sep. 2024, [Peer-reviewed]
  Scientific journal
• Integration of a computable general equilibrium model with an energy system model: Application of the AIM global model
  Shinichiro Fujimori; Ken Oshiro; Osamu Nishiura; Tomoko Hasegawa; Hiroto Shiraki
  Environmental Modelling & Software, 178, 106087, 106087, Elsevier BV, Jul. 2024, [Peer-reviewed], [International Magazine]
  English, Scientific journal
• Synthetic fuels mitigate the risks associated with rapid end-use technology transition in climate mitigation scenarios
  Shotaro Mori; Osamu Nishiura; Ken Oshiro; Shinichiro Fujimori
  Global Environmental Change Advances, 2, 100009, 100009, Elsevier BV, Jul. 2024, [Peer-reviewed], [International Magazine]
  English, Scientific journal
• Residual emissions and carbon removal towards Japan’s net-zero goal: a multi-model analysis
  Masahiro Sugiyama; Shinichiro Fujimori; Kenichi Wada; Etsushi Kato; Yuhji Matsuo; Osamu Nishiura; Ken Oshiro; Takashi Otsuki
  Environmental Research Communications, 6, 5, 051008, 051008, IOP Publishing, 01 May 2024, [Peer-reviewed], [International Magazine]
  English, Scientific journal, Abstract
  
  We study Japan’s net-zero emissions target by 2050 in a multi-model framework, focusing on residual emissions and carbon dioxide removal (CDR). Four energy-economic and integrated assessment models show similar but stronger strategies for the net-zero target, compared to the previous, low-carbon policy target (80% emissions reduction). Results indicate that around 90% (inter-model median) of the current emissions are reduced through abatement, including improved energy efficiency and cleaner electricity and fuels. Models deploy new options such as CDR based on carbon capture and storage (CCS) (bioenergy with CCS and direct air carbon dioxide capture and storage) and hydrogen to achieve net zero. The scale of CCS-based CDR deployment reaches an inter-model median of 132Mt-CO₂/yr. The median hydrogen share of final energy in 2050 increases from 0.79% to 6.9% between the low-carbon and net-zero scenarios. The CDR sensitivity analysis reveals that limiting the use of CDR significantly increases the mitigation costs for net zero. Achieving Japan’s net-zero goal will require exploring methods to reduce residual emissions, including demand-side solutions, and accelerating responsible CDR policies.
• Benefits of air quality for human health resulting from climate change mitigation through dietary change and food loss prevention policy
  Thanapat Jansakoo; Satoshi Sekizawa; Shinichiro Fujimori; Tomoko Hasegawa; Ken Oshiro
  Sustainability Science, 19, 4, 1391, 1407, Springer Science and Business Media LLC, 22 Apr. 2024, [Peer-reviewed], [International Magazine]
  English, Scientific journal, Abstract
  
  Food production, particularly cattle husbandry, contributes significantly to air pollution and its associated health hazards. However, making changes in dietary habits, such as reducing red meat consumption and minimizing food waste, can lead to substantial improvements in both air quality and human health. In this study, we explored the impact of dietary changes on future air quality and human wellbeing. We also assessed the influence of dietary transformation policies in the context of climate change mitigation, with the objective of understanding how policies can effectively complement each other. We used a chemical transport model and an integrated assessment model to determine changes in fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) and ozone (O₃) concentrations. Then, an exposure model was applied to estimate premature deaths as a consequence of air pollution. Our results showed that dietary changes could play a crucial role in mitigating air pollution, particularly in regions where agricultural activities emit significant quantities of ammonia. In the European Union, for example, dietary changes could lead to a reduction of 5.34% in PM_2.5 by 2050. Similarly, in Asia, the models projected a reduction of 6.23% in PM_2.5 by 2100. Ground surface O₃ levels in Southeast Asia were projected to drop by as much as 12.93% by 2100. Our results further showed that dietary changes could lead to significant reductions in global mortality associated with PM_2.5 and O₃, with 187,500 and 131,110 avoided deaths per year expected by 2100. A combined approach that integrates dietary changes with climate change mitigation measures could lead to more comprehensive air quality improvements in specific regions. However, careful consideration is needed to address any potential adverse effects on O₃ concentrations in some areas.
• Macroeconomic impacts and co-benefits of deep-decarbonization in Thailand
  Achiraya Chaichaloempreecha; Bijay B. Pradhan; Salony Rajbhandari; Puttipong Chunark; Shinichiro Fujimori; Ken Oshiro; Tatsuya Hanaoka; Bundit Limmeechokchai
  Energy, Ecology and Environment, 9, 5, 486, 501, Springer Science and Business Media LLC, 10 Apr. 2024, [Peer-reviewed]
  Scientific journal, Abstract
  
  The updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) in 2022 of Thailand includes an aggressive GHG emission reduction target of 40% in 2030 from its baseline emissions. However, the macroeconomic impacts and co-benefits associated with reducing GHG emissions are not addressed. This study analyzes the macroeconomic implications and co-benefits of GHG emission reduction in Thailand to achieve the NDC and net zero emission (NZE) targets by 2050 using the AIM/Hub-Thailand model. This paper provides co-benefits for Thailand on ambitious long-term GHG emission reduction targets. Considering the co-benefit analysis in the policy documents will provide holistic insights on the positive impacts of GHG mitigation. Results show that Thailand would have to bear a GDP loss of 7.7% in 2050 compared to the BAU level if the net zero emissions need to be achieved. Fuel switching from fossil fuel to electricity in the demand side and improvement of technologies in the power sector also reduces air pollutant emissions. The increasing dependence on domestic energy supply in the NZE scenario will make the country less vulnerable to the fluctuating prices in the international energy market. In terms of trade-offs, the land use for sustainable biomass in both the NDC and NZE scenarios will be larger than in the BAU scenario. Results show better land use for biomass production and higher yields in agricultural production. Moreover, the achievement of NZE pathway will require effective usage of land area and better use of energy resources, thereby making the country more energy secure.
• Limited impact of hydrogen co-firing on prolonging fossil-based power generation under low emissions scenarios
  Ken Oshiro; Shinichiro Fujimori
  Nature Communications, 15, 1, 1778, Springer Science and Business Media LLC, 04 Mar. 2024, [Peer-reviewed], [Lead author], [International Magazine]
  English, Scientific journal, Abstract
  
  Climate change mitigation generally require rapid decarbonization in the power sector, including phase-out of fossil fuel-fired generators. Given recent technological developments, co-firing of hydrogen or ammonia, could help decarbonize fossil-based generators, but little is known about how its effects would play out globally. Here, we explore this topic using an energy system model. The results indicate that hydrogen co-firing occurs solely in stringent mitigation like 1.5 °C scenarios, where around half of existing coal and gas power capacity can be retrofitted for hydrogen co-firing, reducing stranded capacity, mainly in the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries and Asia. However, electricity supply from co-firing generators is limited to about 1% of total electricity generation, because hydrogen co-firing is mainly used as a backup option to balance the variable renewable energies. The incremental fuel cost of hydrogen results in lower capacity factor of hydrogen co-fired generators, whereas low-carbon hydrogen contributes to reducing emission cost associated with carbon pricing. While hydrogen co-firing may play a role in balancing intermittency of variable renewable energies, it will not seriously delay the phase-out of fossil-based generators.
• GLOBAL ASSESSMENT OF THE TROPOSPHERIC OZONE IMPACT ON CO₂ SEQUESTRATION BY VEGETATION AND ITS IMPLICATIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION MEASURES
  Sotaro HIRABARU; Satoshi SEKIZAWA; Shinichiro FUJIMORI; Ken OSHIRO; Akihiko ITO; Tomoko HASEGAWA
  Japanese Journal of JSCE, 79, 27, I_103, I_114, Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Sep. 2023, [Peer-reviewed], [Domestic magazines]
  Japanese, Scientific journal
• 世界を対象とした気候変動および気候変動緩和策による貧困影響の評価
  Yumi MARUTA; Shinichiro FUJIMORI; Junya TAKAKURA; Ken OSHIRO; Kiyoshi TAKAHASHI; Tomoko HASEGAWA
  Japanese Journal of JSCE, 79, 27, I_367, I_375, Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Sep. 2023, [Peer-reviewed], [Domestic magazines]
  Japanese, Scientific journal
• 気候変動が変動性再生可能エネルギーの供給ポテンシャルに与える影響の評価
  齋藤 啓貴; 森 翔太郎; 大城 賢; 藤森 真一郎
  土木学会論文集, 79, 27, I_71, I_82, 土木学会, Sep. 2023, [Peer-reviewed]
  Japanese, Scientific journal
• 世界を対象としたエネルギーシステムモデルによる化学部門のCO2 排出削減策の評価
  森 翔太郎; 大城 賢; 藤森 真一郎
  土木学会論文集, 79, 27, I_355, I_365, 土木学会, Sep. 2023, [Peer-reviewed]
  Japanese, Scientific journal
• 世界規模のNOx 排出削減がもたらす気候，健康，農業への影響に関する研究
  山﨑 航我; 藤森 真一郎; 大城 賢; 上谷 明生; 関沢 賢
  土木学会論文集, 79, 27, I_91, I_102, 土木学会, Sep. 2023, [Peer-reviewed]
  Japanese, Scientific journal
• 全世界を対象とした木材による鉄鋼・セメントの代替が気候変動緩和に与える影響の評価
  吉田 大輝; 筒井 紀希; 西浦 理; 藤森 真一郎; 大城 賢
  土木学会論文集, 79, 27, I_259, I_269, 土木学会, Sep. 2023, [Peer-reviewed]
  Japanese, Scientific journal
• Potential side effects of climate change mitigation on poverty and countermeasures
  Shinichiro Fujimori; Tomoko Hasegawa; Ken Oshiro; Shiya Zhao; Katsuya Sasaki; Junya Takakura; Kiyoshi Takahashi
  Sustainability Science, 18, 2245, 2257, Springer Science and Business Media LLC, 07 Jul. 2023, [Peer-reviewed], [International Magazine]
  English, Scientific journal, Abstract
  
  Many countries have set ambitious long-term emissions reduction targets for reaching the goal in alignment with the Paris Agreement. However, large-scale emission reduction efforts may influence poverty by various economic channels. Here, we show the extent to which climate change mitigation, excluding climate change impacts, has the potential to increase poverty, and have identified its factors such as income, price changes, and direct and indirect carbon pricing impacts. We found that the global poverty headcount could increase by 69 million (19%) in 2030 relative to the baseline for climate change mitigation with global uniform carbon prices. Moreover, our decomposition analysis revealed that both price and income change effects were major factors that could increase the poverty headcount, which are 55% and 40%, respectively. This adverse side effect could be mitigated by various measures, such as emission regulations and an enhancement of energy efficiency standards beyond the typical simple carbon tax. Our results imply that global climate change mitigation policy should place more attention on economic development in poor countries.
• Alternative, but expensive, energy transition scenario featuring carbon capture and utilization can preserve existing energy demand technologies
  Ken Oshiro; Shinichiro Fujimori; Tomoko Hasegawa; Shinichiro Asayama; Hiroto Shiraki; Kiyoshi Takahashi
  One Earth, 6, 7, 872, 883, Elsevier BV, Jul. 2023, [Peer-reviewed], [Lead author], [International Magazine]
  English, Scientific journal
• Climate change mitigation costs reduction caused by socioeconomic-technological transitions
  Shinichiro Fujimori; Ken Oshiro; Tomoko Hasegawa; Junya Takakura; Kayo Ueda
  npj Climate Action, 2, 1, Springer Science and Business Media LLC, 04 May 2023, [Peer-reviewed], [International Magazine]
  English, Scientific journal, Abstract
  
  Numerical scenarios generated by Integrated Assessment Models describing future energy and land-use systems that attain climate change mitigation goals have been considered important sources of guidance for climate policymaking. The climate change mitigation cost is one of the concerns in the emissions reduction efforts. However, how to moderate climate change mitigation costs is not well understood. Here, we describe the conditions needed for reducing or taking away climate change mitigation costs by implementing socioeconomic-technological transitions into numerical scenario assessment. The results indicate that integration of multiple socioeconomic-technological transitions would be effective, including lowering energy demand, shifting to an environmentally friendly food system, energy technology progress and the stimulus of capital formation that is additionally imposed to the normal carbon pricing mechanism. No single measure is sufficient to fully take away mitigation costs. These results indicate that cross-sectoral transformation is needed, as the realisation of all measures depends on effective government policies as well as uncertain social and technological changes.
• Poverty and inequality implications of carbon pricing under the long-term climate target
  Shiya Zhao; Shinichiro Fujimori; Tomoko Hasegawa; Ken Oshiro; Katsuya Sasaki
  Sustainability Science, 17, 6, 2513, 2528, Springer Science and Business Media LLC, Nov. 2022, [Peer-reviewed]
  English, Scientific journal, Abstract
  
  Many countries have taken stringent climate policies to minimize the risks by climate change. But these policies could burden households and the poor with the extra costs and threaten their wellbeing. However, the consequences of climate policies on poverty and welfare loss are seldom presented in stringent long-term climate change mitigation projections. Carbon pricing is a cost-effective approach; how it affects households varies among countries. This study investigated the distributional effects and poverty implications of carbon pricing in China during the transition towards carbon neutrality and the Paris Agreement’s long-term goals. We assessed multiple poverty and equity standards in future scenarios with a newly developed integrated assessment model. It was found that climate change mitigation efforts would not greatly hinder poverty alleviation in China, with the poverty headcount under the $3.2/cap/day-threshold being less than 0.3 million people in 2050 in most scenarios. A carbon tax became a regressive factor mainly due to price increases in food and energy goods. This indicates that the distributional effects on carbon pricing should be considered. For example, supplementary policies that compensate for price changes, such as subsidies and early mitigation actions, that lead to modest price increases in the long term are worthy of consideration as valid instruments for the just transition towards the 2 °C or even 1.5 °C pathway.
• Scaling up climate ambition post-2030: a long-term GHG mitigation analysis for Thailand
  Bundit Limmeechokchai; Salony Rajbhandari; Bijay B. Pradhan; Puttipong Chunark; Achiraya Chaichaloempreecha; Shinichiro Fujimori; Ken Oshiro; Yuki Ochi
  Climate Policy, 23, 2, 168, 183, Informa UK Limited, 26 Sep. 2022, [Peer-reviewed]
  English, Scientific journal
• 日本の2050年ネットゼロ排出目標における残存排出量削減方策のシナリオ分析
  大城賢; 藤森真一郎
  土木学会論文集G（環境）, 78, 5, 429, 439, Sep. 2022, [Peer-reviewed], [Lead author], [Domestic magazines]
  Japanese, Scientific journal
• 世界を対象としたネットゼロ排出シナリオにおける合成燃料の役割
  森翔太郎; 西浦理; 大城賢; 藤森真一郎
  土木学会論文集G（環境）, 78, 5, 451, 461, Sep. 2022, [Peer-reviewed], [Domestic magazines]
  Japanese, Scientific journal
• 全世界を対象とした異なるPM2.5由来の健康影響評価関数に関する研究
  関沢賢; 渡邉諒一; 藤森真一郎; 大城賢; 上田佳代
  土木学会論文集G（環境）, 78, 5, 239, 250, Sep. 2022, [Peer-reviewed], [Domestic magazines]
  Japanese, Scientific journal
• 二酸化炭素直接回収技術を考慮した応用一般 均衡モデルの開発および気候変動緩和策の評価
  西浦理; 藤森真一郎; 大城賢
  土木学会論文集G（環境）, 78, 5, 417, 427, Sep. 2022, [Peer-reviewed], [Domestic magazines]
  Japanese, Scientific journal
• 各国の2030年温室効果ガス排出目標更新を踏まえた排出量取引の有効性
  筒井紀希; 西浦理; 藤森真一郎; 大城賢
  土木学会論文集G（環境）, 78, 5, 405, 416, Sep. 2022, [Peer-reviewed], [Domestic magazines]
  Japanese, Scientific journal
• 世界全域を対象とした水平解像度を用いた大気汚染の影響評価
  渡邉諒一; 上谷明生; 関沢賢; 藤森真一郎; 長谷川知子; 大城賢
  土木学会論文集G（環境）, 78, 5, 251, 262, Sep. 2022, [Peer-reviewed], [Domestic magazines]
  Japanese, Scientific journal
• Job creation in response to Japan’s energy transition towards deep mitigation: An extension of partial equilibrium integrated assessment models
  Yiyi Ju; Masahiro Sugiyama; Etsushi Kato; Ken Oshiro; Jiayang Wang
  Applied Energy, 318, 119178, Jul. 2022, [Peer-reviewed], [International Magazine]
  English, Scientific journal, 32315896;26954076
• Role of hydrogen-based energy carriers as an alternative option to reduce residual emissions associated with mid-century decarbonization goals
  Ken Oshiro; Shinichiro Fujimori
  Applied Energy, 313, 118803, 118803, Elsevier BV, May 2022, [Peer-reviewed], [Lead author], [International Magazine]
  English, Scientific journal, 32315902;26954076;26954099
• Good practice policies to bridge the emissions gap in key countries
  Luiz Bernardo Baptista; Roberto Schaeffer; Heleen L. van Soest; Panagiotis Fragkos; Pedro R.R. Rochedo; Detlef van Vuuren; Retno Gumilang Dewi; Gokul Iyer; Kejun Jiang; Maria Kannavou; Nick Macaluso; Ken Oshiro; Chan Park; Luke J. Reedman; George Safonov; Swapnil Shekhar; Ucok Siagian; Kavita Surana; Chai Qimin
  Global Environmental Change, 73, 102472, 102472, Elsevier BV, Mar. 2022, [Peer-reviewed], ［Internationally co-authored］, [International Magazine]
  English, Scientific journal, 32315902;26954076
• Cost and attainability of meeting stringent climate targets without overshoot
  Keywan Riahi; Christoph Bertram; Daniel Huppmann; Joeri Rogelj; Valentina Bosetti; Anique-Marie Cabardos; Andre Deppermann; Laurent Drouet; Stefan Frank; Oliver Fricko; Shinichiro Fujimori; Mathijs Harmsen; Tomoko Hasegawa; Volker Krey; Gunnar Luderer; Leonidas Paroussos; Roberto Schaeffer; Matthias Weitzel; Bob van der Zwaan; Zoi Vrontisi; Francesco Dalla Longa; Jacques Després; Florian Fosse; Kostas Fragkiadakis; Mykola Gusti; Florian Humpenöder; Kimon Keramidas; Paul Kishimoto; Elmar Kriegler; Malte Meinshausen; Larissa P. Nogueira; Ken Oshiro; Alexander Popp; Pedro R. R. Rochedo; Gamze Ünlü; Bas van Ruijven; Junya Takakura; Massimo Tavoni; Detlef van Vuuren; Behnam Zakeri
  Nature Climate Change, 11, 12, 1063, 1069, Springer Science and Business Media LLC, Dec. 2021, [Peer-reviewed], ［Internationally co-authored］, [International Magazine]
  English, Scientific journal
• Net zero-emission pathways reduce the physical and economic risks of climate change
  Laurent Drouet; Valentina Bosetti; Simone A. Padoan; Lara Aleluia Reis; Christoph Bertram; Francesco Dalla Longa; Jacques Després; Johannes Emmerling; Florian Fosse; Kostas Fragkiadakis; Stefan Frank; Oliver Fricko; Shinichiro Fujimori; Mathijs Harmsen; Volker Krey; Ken Oshiro; Larissa P. Nogueira; Leonidas Paroussos; Franziska Piontek; Keywan Riahi; Pedro R. R. Rochedo; Roberto Schaeffer; Jun’ya Takakura; Kaj-Ivar van der Wijst; Bob van der Zwaan; Detlef van Vuuren; Zoi Vrontisi; Matthias Weitzel; Behnam Zakeri; Massimo Tavoni
  Nature Climate Change, 11, 12, 1070, 1076, Springer Science and Business Media LLC, Dec. 2021, [Peer-reviewed], ［Internationally co-authored］, [International Magazine]
  English, Scientific journal
• Global roll-out of comprehensive policy measures may aid in bridging emissions gap
  Heleen L. van Soest; Lara Aleluia Reis; Luiz Bernardo Baptista; Christoph Bertram; Jacques Després; Laurent Drouet; Michel den Elzen; Panagiotis Fragkos; Oliver Fricko; Shinichiro Fujimori; Neil Grant; Mathijs Harmsen; Gokul Iyer; Kimon Keramidas; Alexandre C. Köberle; Elmar Kriegler; Aman Malik; Shivika Mittal; Ken Oshiro; Keywan Riahi; Mark Roelfsema; Bas van Ruijven; Roberto Schaeffer; Diego Silva Herran; Massimo Tavoni; Gamze Unlu; Toon Vandyck; Detlef P. van Vuuren
  Nature Communications, 12, 1, 6419, Springer Science and Business Media LLC, Dec. 2021, [Peer-reviewed], ［Internationally co-authored］, [International Magazine]
  English, Scientific journal, Closing the emissions gap between Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and the global emissions levels needed to achieve the Paris Agreement’s climate goals will require a comprehensive package of policy measures. National and sectoral policies can help fill the gap, but success stories in one country cannot be automatically replicated in other countries. They need to be adapted to the local context. Here, we develop a new Bridge scenario based on nationally relevant, short-term measures informed by interactions with country experts. These good practice policies are rolled out globally between now and 2030 and combined with carbon pricing thereafter. We implement this scenario with an ensemble of global integrated assessment models. We show that the Bridge scenario closes two-thirds of the emissions gap between NDC and 2 °C scenarios by 2030 and enables a pathway in line with the 2 °C goal when combined with the necessary long-term changes, i.e. more comprehensive pricing measures after 2030. The Bridge scenario leads to a scale-up of renewable energy (reaching 52%–88% of global electricity supply by 2050), electrification of end-uses, efficiency improvements in energy demand sectors, and enhanced afforestation and reforestation. Our analysis suggests that early action via good-practice policies is less costly than a delay in global climate cooperation.
• Land-based implications of early climate actions without global net-negative emissions
  Tomoko Hasegawa; Shinichiro Fujimori; Stefan Frank; Florian Humpenöder; Christoph Bertram; Jacques Després; Laurent Drouet; Johannes Emmerling; Mykola Gusti; Mathijs Harmsen; Kimon Keramidas; Yuki Ochi; Ken Oshiro; Pedro Rochedo; Bas van Ruijven; Anique-Marie Cabardos; Andre Deppermann; Florian Fosse; Petr Havlik; Volker Krey; Alexander Popp; Roberto Schaeffer; Detlef van Vuuren; Keywan Riahi
  Nature Sustainability, 4, 12, 1052, 1059, Springer Science and Business Media LLC, 07 Oct. 2021, [Peer-reviewed]
  English, Scientific journal
• パリ協定CO₂排出削減目標の達成における水素エネルギーキャリアの役割の評価
  大城賢; 藤森真一郎
  土木学会論文集G（環境）, 77, 5, 197, 207, Sep. 2021, [Peer-reviewed], [Lead author]
  Japanese, Scientific journal
• 世界およびアジアにおける二酸化炭素の地下貯留容量を考慮した気候変動緩和策の評価
  西浦理; 藤森真一郎; 大城賢
  土木学会論文集G（環境）, 77, 5, 251, 262, Sep. 2021, [Peer-reviewed]
  Japanese, Scientific journal
• 交通部門における技術・社会の変容が気候変動政策へ及ぼす影響
  松井そら; 大城賢; 藤森真一郎; 西浦理
  土木学会論文集G（環境）, 77, 5, 275, 283, Sep. 2021, [Peer-reviewed]
  Japanese, Scientific journal
• 日本における所得階層を考慮した炭素税の家計消費への影響
  佐々木克哉; 藤森真一郎; 長谷川知子; 大城賢
  土木学会論文集G（環境）, 77, 5, 263, 273, Sep. 2021, [Peer-reviewed]
  Japanese, Scientific journal
• Enabling energy system transition toward decarbonization in Japan through energy service demand reduction
  Ken Oshiro; Shinichiro Fujimori; Yuki Ochi; Tomoki Ehara
  Energy, 227, 120464, 120464, Elsevier BV, Jul. 2021, [Peer-reviewed], [Lead author]
  English, Scientific journal
• A framework for national scenarios with varying emission reductions
  Shinichiro Fujimori; Volker Krey; Detlef van Vuuren; Ken Oshiro; Masahiro Sugiyama; Puttipong Chunark; Bundit Limmeechokchai; Shivika Mittal; Osamu Nishiura; Chan Park; Salony Rajbhandari; Diego Silva Herran; Tran Thanh Tu; Shiya Zhao; Yuki Ochi; Priyardarshi R. Shukla; Toshihiko Masui; Phuong V. H. Nguyen; Anique-Marie Cabardos; Keywan Riahi
  Nature Climate Change, 11, 6, 472, 480, Springer Science and Business Media LLC, 27 May 2021, [Peer-reviewed]
  English, Scientific journal
• Demand-side decarbonization and electrification: EMF 35 JMIP study
  Shogo Sakamoto; Yu Nagai; Masahiro Sugiyama; Shinichiro Fujimori; Etsushi Kato; Ryoichi Komiyama; Yuhji Matsuo; Ken Oshiro; Diego Silva Herran
  Sustainability Science, 16, 2, 395, 410, Springer Science and Business Media LLC, Mar. 2021, [Peer-reviewed]
  English, Scientific journal, Japan’s long-term strategy submitted to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change emphasizes the importance of improving the electrification rates to reducing GHG emissions. Using the five models participating in Energy Modeling Forum 35 Japan Model Intercomparison project (JMIP), we focused on the demand-side decarbonization and analyzed the final energy composition required to achieve 80% reductions in GHGs by 2050 in Japan. The model results show that the electricity share in final energy use (electrification rate) needs to reach 37–66% in 2050 (26% in 2010) to achieve the emissions reduction of 80%. The electrification rate increases mainly due to switching from fossil fuel end-use technologies (i.e. oil water heater, oil stove and combustion-engine vehicles) to electricity end-use technologies (i.e. heat pump water heater and electric vehicles). The electricity consumption in 2050 other than AIM/Hub ranged between 840 and 1260 TWh (AIM/Hub: 1950TWh), which is comparable to the level seen in the last 10 years (950–1035 TWh). The pace at which electrification rate must be increased is a challenge. The model results suggest to increase the electrification pace to 0.46–1.58%/yr from 2030 to 2050. Neither the past electrification pace (0.30%/year from 1990 to 2010) nor the outlook of the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (0.15%/year from 2010 to 2030) is enough to reach the suggested electrification rates in 2050. Therefore, more concrete measures to accelerate dissemination of electricity end-use technologies across all sectors need to be established.
• Industrial decarbonization under Japan’s national mitigation scenarios: a multi-model analysis
  Yiyi Ju; Masahiro Sugiyama; Etsushi Kato; Yuhji Matsuo; Ken Oshiro; Diego Silva Herran
  Sustainability Science, 16, 2, 411, 427, Springer Science and Business Media LLC, Mar. 2021, [Peer-reviewed]
  English, Scientific journal
• EMF 35 JMIP study for Japan’s long-term climate and energy policy: scenario designs and key findings
  Masahiro Sugiyama; Shinichiro Fujimori; Kenichi Wada; Ken Oshiro; Etsushi Kato; Ryoichi Komiyama; Diego Silva Herran; Yuhji Matsuo; Hiroto Shiraki; Yiyi Ju
  Sustainability Science, 16, 2, 355, 374, Springer Science and Business Media LLC, Mar. 2021, [Peer-reviewed]
  English, Scientific journal, In June, 2019, Japan submitted its mid-century strategy to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and pledged 80% emissions cuts by 2050. The strategy has not gone through a systematic analysis, however. The present study, Stanford Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) 35 Japan Model Intercomparison project (JMIP), employs five energy-economic and integrated assessment models to evaluate the nationally determined contribution and mid-century strategy of Japan. EMF 35 JMIP conducts a suite of sensitivity analyses on dimensions including emissions constraints, technology availability, and demand projections. The results confirm that Japan needs to deploy all of its mitigation strategies at a substantial scale, including energy efficiency, electricity decarbonization, and end-use electrification. Moreover, they suggest that with the absence of structural changes in the economy, heavy industries will be one of the hardest to decarbonize. Partitioning of the sum of squares based on a two-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) reconfirms that mitigation strategies, such as energy efficiency and electrification, are fairly robust across models and scenarios, but that the cost metrics are uncertain. There is a wide gap of policy strength and breadth between the current policy instruments and those suggested by the models. Japan should strengthen its climate action in all aspects of society and economy to achieve its long-term target.
• Stranded investment associated with rapid energy system changes under the mid-century strategy in Japan
  Ken Oshiro; Shinichiro Fujimori
  Sustainability Science, 16, 2, 477, 487, Springer Science and Business Media LLC, Mar. 2021, [Peer-reviewed], [Lead author]
  English, Scientific journal, Japan’s mid-century strategy to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 80% by 2050 requires rapid energy system changes, which may lead to stranded assets in fossil fuel-related infrastructure. Existing studies have shown that massive stranding of assets in the energy supply side is possible; few studies have involved economy-wide stranded asset analysis. In this study, we estimated stranded investments in both the energy supply and demand sectors in Japan in the context of near-term goals for 2030 and the mid-century strategy. To this end, multiple emission scenarios for Japan were assessed based on various emission reduction targets for 2030 and 2050. The results show that stranded investments in the energy supply sectors occur mainly in coal power plants without carbon capture and storage (CCS), especially in scenarios without enhanced near-term mitigation targets. Increases of stranded investment in demand sectors were observed primarily under stringent mitigation scenarios, which exceed the 80% reduction target. In particular, investment for oil and gas heating systems in the buildings sector may be stranded at levels up to $20 billion US between 2021 and 2050. We further simulated a scenario incorporating a subsidy for devices that do not use fossil fuels as a sector-specific policy; this reduced the amount of stranded investment in the buildings sector. We confirmed the benefit of enhancing near-term mitigation targets to avoid generating stranded investments. These findings support the importance of inclusive energy and climate policy design involving not only pricing of carbon emissions but also complementary cross-sector economy-wide policies.
• The role of renewables in the Japanese power sector: implications from the EMF35 JMIP
  Hiroto Shiraki; Masahiro Sugiyama; Yuhji Matsuo; Ryoichi Komiyama; Shinichiro Fujimori; Etsushi Kato; Ken Oshiro; Diego Herran Silva
  Sustainability Science, 16, 2, 375, 392, Springer Science and Business Media LLC, 11 Feb. 2021, [Peer-reviewed]
  English, Scientific journal, The Japanese power system has unique characteristics with regard to variable renewable energies (VREs), such as higher costs, lower potentials, and less flexibility with the grid connection compared to other major greenhouse-gas-emitting countries. We analyzed the role of renewable energies (REs) in the future Japanese power sector using the results from the model intercomparison project Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) 35 Japan Model Intercomparison Project (JMIP) using varying emission reduction targets and key technological conditions across scenarios. We considered the uncertainties for future capital costs of solar photovoltaics, wind turbines, and batteries in addition to the availability of nuclear and carbon dioxide capture and storage. The results show that REs supply more than 40% of electricity in most of the technology sensitivity scenarios (median 51.0%) when assuming an 80% emission reduction in 2050. The results (excluding scenarios that assume the continuous growth of nuclear power and/or the abundant availability of domestic biomass and carbon-free hydrogen) show that the median VRE shares reach 52.2% in 2050 in the 80% emission reduction scenario. On the contrary, the availability of newly constructed nuclear power, affordable biomass, and carbon-free hydrogen can reduce dependence on VREs to less than 20%. The policy costs were much more sensitive to the capital costs and resource potential of VREs than the battery cost uncertainties. Specifically, while the doubled capital costs of VRE resulted in a 13.0% (inter-model median) increase in the policy cost, the halved capital costs of VREs reduced 8.7% (inter-model median) of the total policy cost. These results imply that lowering the capital costs of VREs would be effective in achieving a long-term emission reduction target considering the current high Japanese VRE costs.
• Energy system transitions and low-carbon pathways in Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, EU-28, India, Indonesia, Japan, Republic of Korea, Russia and the United States
  Panagiotis Fragkos; Heleen Laura van Soest; Roberto Schaeffer; Luke Reedman; Alexandre C. Köberle; Nick Macaluso; Stavroula Evangelopoulou; Alessia De Vita; Fu Sha; Chai Qimin; Jiang Kejun; Ritu Mathur; Swapnil Shekhar; Retno Gumilang Dewi; Diego Silva Herran; Ken Oshiro; Shinichiro Fujimori; Chan Park; George Safonov; Gokul Iyer
  Energy, 216, 119385, 119385, Elsevier BV, Feb. 2021, [Peer-reviewed]
  English, Scientific journal
• A pathway design framework for sectoral deep decarbonization: the case of passenger transportation
  Julien Lefèvre; Yann Briand; Steve Pye; Jordi Tovilla; Francis Li; Ken Oshiro; Henri Waisman; Jean-Michel Cayla; Runsen Zhang
  Climate Policy, 21, 1, 93, 106, Informa UK Limited, 02 Jan. 2021, [Peer-reviewed]
  English, Scientific journal
• Assessment of bioenergy potential and associated costs in Japan for the 21st century
  Wenchao Wu; Tomoko Hasegawa; Shinichiro Fujimori; Kiyoshi Takahashi; Ken Oshiro
  Renewable Energy, 162, 308, 321, Elsevier BV, Dec. 2020, [Peer-reviewed]
  English, Scientific journal, 26954099
• An assessment of the potential of using carbon tax revenue to tackle poverty
  Shinichiro Fujimori; Tomoko Hasegawa; Ken Oshiro
  Environmental Research Letters, 15, 11, 114063, 114063, IOP Publishing, 11 Nov. 2020, [Peer-reviewed]
  English, Scientific journal, 13712414;26954099;27302782
• アジアにおける温室効果ガス短期削減目標が2050年までのエネルギー投資に及ぼす影響
  大城賢; 藤森真一郎; 長谷川知子; 明石修
  土木学会論文集G（環境）, 76, 5, I_243, I_252, 23 Sep. 2020, [Peer-reviewed], [Lead author]
  Japanese, 27302782;26954076;13442687
• 世界を対象とした対流圏オゾンの作物収量に対する影響と気候政策の副次的便益に関する研究
  渡邉諒一; 藤森真一郎; 長谷川知子; 大城賢
  土木学会論文集G（環境）, 76, 5, I_129, I_140, 23 Sep. 2020, [Peer-reviewed]
  Japanese
• アジア各国における温室効果ガス大幅削減に必要な対策とその経済的影響の要因分析
  西浦理; 藤森真一郎; 大城賢
  土木学会論文集G（環境）, 76, 5, I_97, I_107, 23 Sep. 2020, [Peer-reviewed]
  Japanese
• Identification of Key Factors to Reduce Transport-Related Air Pollutants and CO2 Emissions in Asia
  Shuanghui Bao; Osamu Nishiura; Shinichiro Fujimori; Ken Oshiro; Runsen Zhang
  Sustainability, 12, 18, 7621, 7621, MDPI AG, 16 Sep. 2020, [Peer-reviewed]
  English, Scientific journal, Asian countries are major contributors to global air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions, with transportation demand and emissions expected to increase. However, few studies have been performed to evaluate policies that could reduce transport-related emissions in the region. This study explores transport-related CO2 and air pollutant emissions in major Asian nations along with the impacts of transport, climate, and emission control policies using the Asia-Pacific Integrated Model (AIM)/Transport model. Our results show that by 2050, CO2 emissions in developing countries will be 1.4–4.7-fold greater than the levels in 2005, while most air pollutant emissions will show large reductions (mean annual reduction rates of 0.2% to 6.1%). Notably, implementation of transport, emission control, and carbon pricing policies would reduce CO2 emissions by up to 33% and other air pollutants by 43% to 72%, depending on the emission species. An emission control policy represents the strongest approach for short-term and mid-term reduction of air pollutants. A carbon pricing policy would lead to a direct reduction in CO2 emissions; more importantly, air pollutant emissions would also be effectively reduced. Shifting to public transportation in developing countries can also greatly influence emissions reductions. An increase in traffic speed shows relatively small effects, but can be meaningful in Japan., 13442687;27302782
• Comparing transformation pathways across major economies
  Roberto Schaeffer; Alexandre C. Köberle; Heleen L. van Soest; Christoph Bertram; Gunnar Luderer; Keywan Riahi; Volker Krey; Detlef P. van Vuuren; Elmar Kriegler; Shinichiro Fujimori; Wenying Chen; Chenmin. He; Zoi Vrontisi; Saritha S. Vishwanathan; Amit. Garg; Ritu. Mathur; Swapnil Shekhar; Ken Oshiro; Falko Ueckerdt; George Safonov; Gokul Iyer; Keii Gi; Vladimir Potashnikov
  Climatic Change, 162, 4, 1787, 1803, Springer Science and Business Media LLC, 24 Aug. 2020, [Peer-reviewed]
  English, Scientific journal
• Taking stock of national climate policies to evaluate implementation of the Paris Agreement
  Mark Roelfsema; Heleen L van Soest; Mathijs Harmsen; Detlef P van Vuuren; Christoph Bertram; Michel den Elzen; Niklas Höhne; Gabriela Iacobuta; Volker Krey; Elmar Kriegler; Gunnar Luderer; Keywan Riahi; Falko Ueckerdt; Jacques Després; Laurent Drouet; Johannes Emmerling; Stefan Frank; Oliver Fricko; Matthew Gidden; Florian Humpenöder; Daniel Huppmann; Shinichiro Fujimori; Kostas Fragkiadakis; Keii Gi; Kimon Keramidas; Alexandre C Köberle; Lara Aleluia Reis; Pedro Rochedo; Roberto Schaeffer; Ken Oshiro; Zoi Vrontisi; Wenying Chen; Gokul C Iyer; Jae Edmonds; Maria Kannavou; Kejun Jiang; Ritu Mathur; George Safonov; Saritha Sudharmma Vishwanathan
  Nature communications, 11, 1, 2096, 29 Apr. 2020, [Peer-reviewed], [International Magazine]
  English, Scientific journal, Many countries have implemented national climate policies to accomplish pledged Nationally Determined Contributions and to contribute to the temperature objectives of the Paris Agreement on climate change. In 2023, the global stocktake will assess the combined effort of countries. Here, based on a public policy database and a multi-model scenario analysis, we show that implementation of current policies leaves a median emission gap of 22.4 to 28.2 GtCO2eq by 2030 with the optimal pathways to implement the well below 2 °C and 1.5 °C Paris goals. If Nationally Determined Contributions would be fully implemented, this gap would be reduced by a third. Interestingly, the countries evaluated were found to not achieve their pledged contributions with implemented policies (implementation gap), or to have an ambition gap with optimal pathways towards well below 2 °C. This shows that all countries would need to accelerate the implementation of policies for renewable technologies, while efficiency improvements are especially important in emerging countries and fossil-fuel-dependent countries., 12839250;13442687
• Energy transformation cost for the Japanese mid-century strategy
  Shinichiro Fujimori; Ken Oshiro; Hiroto Shiraki; Tomoko Hasegawa
  Nature communications, 10, 1, 4737, 18 Oct. 2019, [Peer-reviewed], [International Magazine]
  English, Scientific journal, The costs of climate change mitigation policy are one of the main concerns in decarbonizing the economy. The macroeconomic and sectoral implications of policy interventions are typically estimated by economic models, which tend be higher than the additional energy system costs projected by energy system models. Here, we show the extent to which policy costs can be lower than those from conventional economic models by integrating an energy system and an economic model, applying Japan's mid-century climate mitigation target. The GDP losses estimated with the integrated model were significantly lower than those in the conventional economic model by more than 50% in 2050. The representation of industry and service sector energy consumption is the main factor causing these differences. Our findings suggest that this type of integrated approach would contribute new insights by providing improved estimates of GDP losses, which can be critical information for setting national climate policies., 12839250
• アジアのエネルギー関連低炭素技術投資の見通し
  藤森真一郎; 大城賢; 長谷川知子
  土木学会論文集G（環境）, 75, 5, 247, 254, Aug. 2019, [Peer-reviewed]
  Japanese, Symposium, 13442687
• Mid-century emission pathways in Japan associated with the global 2 °C goal: national and global models’ assessments based on carbon budgets
  Ken Oshiro; Keii Gi; Shinichiro Fujimori; Heleen L. van Soest; Christoph Bertram; Jacques Despr{\'{e } }s; Toshihiko Masui; Pedro Rochedo; Mark Roelfsema; Zoi Vrontisi
  Climatic Change, 162, 4, 1913, 1927, Springer Science and Business Media {LLC}, 20 Jul. 2019, [Peer-reviewed], [Lead author]
  English, Scientific journal,
  This study assesses Japan’s mid-century low-emission pathways using both national and global integrated assessment models in the common mitigation scenario framework, based on the carbon budgets corresponding to the global 2 °C goal. We examine high and low budgets, equal to global cumulative 1600 and 1000 Gt-CO₂ (2011–2100) for global models, and 36 and 31 Gt-CO₂ (2011–2050) in Japan for national models, based on the cost-effectiveness allocation performed by the global models. The impacts of near-term policy assumption, including the implementation and enhancement of the 2030 target of the nationally determined contribution (NDC), are also considered. Our estimates show that the low budget scenarios require a 75% reduction of CO₂ emissions by 2050 below the 2010 level, which is nearly the same as Japan’s governmental 2050 goal of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 80%. With regard to near-term actions, Japan’s 2030 target included in the NDC is on track to meet the high budget scenario, whereas it is falling short for the low budget scenario, which would require emission reductions immediately after 2020. Whereas models differ in the type of energy source on which they foresee Japan basing its decarbonization process (e.g., nuclear- or variable renewable energy-dependent), the large-scale deployment of low-carbon energy (nuclear, renewable, and carbon capture and storage) is shared across most models in both the high and low budget scenarios. By 2050, low-carbon energy represents 44–54% of primary energy and 86–97% of electricity supply in the high and low budget scenarios, respectively.
• Looking under the hood: A comparison of techno-economic assumptions across national and global integrated assessment models
  Volker Krey; Fei Guo; Peter Kolp; Wenji Zhou; Roberto Schaeffer; Aayushi Awasthy; Christoph Bertram; Harmen Sytze De Boer; Panagiotis Fragkos; Shinichiro Fujimori; Chenmin He; Gokul Iyer; Kimon Keramidas; Alexandre Koberle; Ken Oshiro; Lara Aleluia Reis; Bianka Shoai-Tehrani; Saritha Vishwanathan; Pantelis Capros; Laurent Drouet; James E. Edmonds; Amit Garg; David Gernaat; Kejun Jiang; Maria Kannavou; Alban Kitous; Elmar Kriegler; Gunnar Luderer; Ritu Mathur; Matteo Muratori; Fuminori Sano; Detlef van Vuuren
  Energy, 172, 1254, 1267, Elsevier {BV}, Apr. 2019, [Peer-reviewed]
• A pathway design framework for national low greenhouse gas emission development strategies
  Henri Waisman; Chris Bataille; Harald Winkler; Frank Jotzo; Priyadarshi Shukla; Michel Colombier; Daniel Buira; Patrick Criqui; Manfred Fischedick; Mikiko Kainuma; Emilio La Rovere; Steve Pye; George Safonov; Ucok Siagian; Fei Teng; Maria-Rosa Virdis; Jim Williams; Soogil Young; Gabrial Anandarajah; Rizaldi Boer; Yongsun Cho; Amandine Denis-Ryan; Subash Dhar; Maria Gaeta; Claudio Gesteira; Ben Haley; Jean-Charles Hourcade; Qiang Liu; Oleg Lugovoy; Toshihiko Masui; Sandrine Mathy; Ken Oshiro; Ramiro Parrado; Minal Pathak; Vladimir Potashnikov; Sascha Samadi; David Sawyer; Thomas Spencer; Jordi Tovilla; Hilton Trollip
  Nature Climate Change, 9, 4, 261, 268, Springer Nature, Mar. 2019, [Peer-reviewed]
• Japan's long-term climate mitigation policy: Multi-model assessment and sectoral challenges
  Masahiro Sugiyama; Shinichiro Fujimori; Kenichi Wada; Seiya Endo; Yasumasa Fujii; Ryoichi Komiyama; Etsushi Kato; Atsushi Kurosawa; Yuhji Matsuo; Ken Oshiro; Fuminori Sano; Hiroto Shiraki
  Energy, 167, 1120, 1131, Jan. 2019, [Peer-reviewed]
  English, Scientific journal
• AN ASSESSMENT OF JAPAN'S LONG-TERM GREENHOUSE EMISSIONS REDUCTION TARGET USING AN INTEGRATED ECONOMIC AND TECHNOLOGICAL MODEL
  FUJIMORI Shinichiro; OSHIRO Ken; SHIRAKI Hiroto; HASEGAWA Tomoko
  Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. G (Environmental Research), 74, 5, I_213, I_222, 公益社団法人 土木学会, Sep. 2018, [Peer-reviewed]
  Japanese
• ESTIMATION OF FLEXIBILITY RESOURCES FOR POWER SYSTEM STABILIZATION UNDER A LONG-TERM LOW CARBON SCENARIO
  SHIRAKI Hiroto; OSHIRO Ken; FUJIMORI Shinichiro; HASEGAWA Tomoko
  Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. G (Environmental Research), 74, 5, I_369, I_378, 公益社団法人 土木学会, Sep. 2018, [Peer-reviewed]
  Japanese
• Transformation of Japan's energy system to attain net-zero emission by 2050
  Ken Oshiro; Toshihiko Masui; Mikiko Kainuma
  Carbon Management, 9, 5, 493, 501, Sep. 2018, [Peer-reviewed], [Lead author]
• Coupling national and global models to explore policy impacts of NDCs
  Panagiotis Fragkos; Kostas Fragkiadakis; Leonidas Paroussos; Roberta Pierfederici; Saritha S. Vishwanathan; Alexandre C. Köberle; Gokul Iyer; Chen-Min He; Ken Oshiro
  Energy Policy, 118, 462, 473, Elsevier {BV}, Jul. 2018, [Peer-reviewed]
  English, Scientific journal
• Implications of Japan's 2030 target for long-term low emission pathways
  Ken Oshiro; Mikiko Kainuma; Toshihiko Masui
  Energy Policy, 110, 581, 587, Nov. 2017, [Peer-reviewed], [Lead author]
  English, Scientific journal
• 2℃目標の実現に向けたINDCsの評価と日本の取り組み
  増井 利彦; 藤森 真一郎; 高橋 潔; 甲斐沼 美紀子; 花岡 達也; 大城 賢; 日比野 剛; 滝見 真穂
  環境経済・政策研究, 9, 1, 66, 70, 環境経済・政策学会, Mar. 2016, [Peer-reviewed]
  Japanese
• Assessing decarbonization pathways and their implications for energy security policies in Japan
  Ken Oshiro; Mikiko Kainuma; Toshihiko Masui
  Climate Policy, 16, S63, S77, Taylor and Francis Ltd., Mar. 2016, [Peer-reviewed], [Lead author]
  English, Scientific journal
• Diffusion of low emission vehicles and their impact on CO2 emission reduction in Japan
  Ken Oshiro; Toshihiko Masui
  Energy Policy, 81, 215, 225, Jun. 2015, [Peer-reviewed], [Lead author]
  English, Scientific journal
• ANALYSIS OF THE LONG-TERM MITIGATION SCENARIO IN JAPAN CONSIDERING UNCERTAINTY OF THE LOW-CARBON ENERGY TECHNOLOGY AVAILABILITY
  OSHIRO Ken; MASUI Toshihiko
  Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. G (Environmental Research), 70, 6, II_207, II_215, 公益社団法人 土木学会, Oct. 2014, [Peer-reviewed], [Lead author]
  Japanese
• Assessment of Greenhouse gas emission reduction in Japan using Computable general equilibrium model with simplified technology selection
  MASUI Toshihiko; HIBINO Go; OSHIRO Ken
  Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. G (Environmental Research), 70, 5, I_43, I_51, 公益社団法人 土木学会, Sep. 2014, [Peer-reviewed]
  Japanese, In this study, the new computable general equilibrium model with simplified technology selection in Japan was developed, and this model was applied to the new mitigation target in Japan in 2020, which was announced in November 2013. If only the short-term cost effective energy saving technologies are introduced, the GDP loss in 2020 will be more than 1% compared with the BaU scenario. The simulation results represent that the GDP loss in 2020 will be less than 1% compared to the BaU scenario, when the countermeasures to promote the energy saving technologies by 2020 such as subsidy for energy saving technologies and acceleration of their introduction will be introduced widely. Moreover, when the energy saving technologies will be introduced sufficiently and the investment will be maintained, GDP in 2020 will be able to become more than that in the BaU scenario.
• Analysis of Long-term Mitigation Scenarios in Japan Using Multi-regional End-use Model
  Oshiro Ken; Masui Toshihiko
  Journal of Japan Society of Energy and Resources, 35, 4, 31, 39, 一般社団法人 エネルギー・資源学会, Jul. 2014, [Peer-reviewed], [Lead author]
  Japanese
• A 2050 CO2 EMISSIONS FORECAST MODEL OF URBAN RESIDENTIAL BUILDINGS IN SHANGHAI
  XING Rui; IKAGA Toshiharu; OSHIRO Ken; KIMOTO Keisuke
  Aij Journal of TECHNOLOGY and Design, 16, 34, 1061, 1064, 日本建築学会, Oct. 2010, [Peer-reviewed]
  Japanese, Scientific journal
• Developing a LCA database of imported wood materials
  Oshiro K; Ikaga T; Hondo H
  AIJ Journal of Technology and Design, 16, 33, 609, 614, Jun. 2010, [Peer-reviewed], [Lead author]
  Japanese, Scientific journal

• エネルギーシステムモデルの時間解像度が推計結果に与える影響の評価
  坂田晴; 森翔太郎; 江藤瞳; 大城賢; 藤森真一郎, 環境衛生工学研究, 39, 3, 82, 84, Jul. 2025
• 様々な社会経済状況下での日本の脱炭素シナリオの定量化
  奥脇隆之介; 大城賢; 森翔太郎; 江藤瞳; 藤森真一郎, 環境衛生工学研究, 39, 3, 85, 87, Jul. 2025
• Energy system implications of direct air capture on India’s net zero target
  Pathak, A.; Oshiro, K.; Vishwanathan, S.; Fujimori, S., 環境衛生工学研究, 39, 3, 109, 111, Jul. 2025
• 二酸化炭素除去技術は2度目標達成に必要か
  江藤瞳; 森翔太郎; 大城賢; 藤森真一郎, 環境衛生工学研究, 39, 3, 118, 120, Jul. 2025
• 二酸化炭素除去技術の利用を制限した場合における2度目標達成の可能性
  江藤瞳; 森翔太郎; 大城賢; 藤森真一郎, 地球環境シンポジウム講演集(CD-ROM), 33rd, 2025
• パリ協定1.5度・2度目標達成に向けた東・東南・南アジアにおける国際連系の役割
  森翔太郎; 藤森真一郎; 大城賢, 地球環境シンポジウム講演集(CD-ROM), 33rd, 2025
• 気候変動が変動性再生可能エネルギーへの影響を通じてエネルギーシステムに与える影響の評価
  齋藤啓貴; 森翔太郎; 大城賢; 藤森真一郎, 第32回地球環境シンポジウム講演集, 175, 180, Sep. 2024
• 将来の気候変動緩和に伴う大気質改善による障害生存年数の定量化
  内田寛也; 関沢賢; 藤森真一郎; 大城賢; 山﨑航我, 第32回地球環境シンポジウム講演集, 193, 198, Sep. 2024
• 全世界を対象としたNOxおよびNH3の排出量変化に対する窒素沈着量の応答
  大杉祐斗; 藤森真一郎; 山崎航我; 大城賢, 第32回地球環境シンポジウム講演集, 237, 242, Sep. 2024
• 気候変動による食料安全保障への国別スケールでの影響評価
  吉田大輝; 藤森真一郎; 大城賢; 長谷川知子, 第32回地球環境シンポジウム講演集, 187, 192, Sep. 2024
• Analysis of NDC and Net-Zero Emissions Targets of India Considering Energy Sector Transformations
  Pathak, A.; Oshiro, K.; Fujimori, S.; Vishwanathan, S., 第32回地球環境シンポジウム講演集, 119, 122, Sep. 2024
• The multidimensional global poverty and income inequality landscape in a decarbonizing world
  Zhao, S.; Fujimori, S.; Min, J.; Kikstra, J.; Hasegawa. T.; Oshiro, K.; Vishwanathan, S., 第32回地球環境シンポジウム講演集, 181, 186, Sep. 2024
• How ammonia can play a role in climate change, air quality, and N deposition by being a carbon-free fuel?
  Jansakoo, T.; Oshiro, K.; Yamazaki, K.; Osugi, Y.; Fujimori, S.; Hasegawa, T., 第32回地球環境シンポジウム講演集, 225, 230, Sep. 2024
• 研究者・実務者のためのエネルギー・資源講座＜連載：世界各機関のエネルギーアウトルック⑨＞ 統合評価モデルによるシナリオとそのデータベース
  大城賢, エネルギー・資源, 45, 3, 41, 46, Jun. 2024, [Invited], [Lead author]
  Introduction scientific journal
• Assessment of the Role of International Interconnections in East Asia for Achieving Net Zero Emissions
  森翔太郎; 大城賢; 藤森真一郎, 環境科学会年会講演要旨集(Web), 2024, 2024
• Carbon Dioxide Removal for Net-Zero Emissions in Japan: Scenarios and Policy Mix
  杉山昌広; 大城賢; 大槻貴司; 加藤悦史; 木村宰; 冨田哲也; 西浦理; 藤森真一郎; 松尾雄司; 和田謙一, エネルギーシステム・経済・環境コンファレンス講演論文集(CD-ROM), 40th, 2024
• Analysis of Short-term (NDC) and Long-term (Net Zero) Emission Targets of India Using AIM-Technology Model
  Anuj Pathak; Ken Oshiro; Shinichiro Fujimori; Saritha Vishwanathan, Environmental & Sanitary Engineering Research, 38, 3, 118, 120, 2024
• 気候変動緩和に伴う大気質改善による障害生存年数の定量
  内田寛也; 関沢賢; 藤森真一郎; 大城賢; 山﨑航我, 環境衛生工学研究, 38, 3, 94, 96, 2024
• 将来の土地被覆の変化が大気汚染へ与える影響の評価
  山﨑航我; 藤森真一郎; 大城賢, 環境衛生工学研究, 38, 3, 92, 94, 2024
• 世界全体でのNOxおよびNH3の排出量変化が窒素沈着量に与える影響の評価
  大杉祐斗; 藤森真一郎; 山崎航我; 大城賢, 環境衛生工学研究, 38, 3, 88, 90, 2024
• 途上国への投資資金援助による経済影響の評価
  范蠡萌; 藤森真一郎; 筒井紀希; 吉田大輝; 西浦理; 大城賢, 環境衛生工学研究, 38, 3, 67, 69, 2024
• 日本の2050年脱炭素シナリオが異なる所得階層へ与える影響の評価
  川口誠也; 藤森真一郎; 大城賢; 丸田有美; 吉田大輝; 趙詩雅; 長谷川知子, 環境衛生工学研究, 38, 3, 64, 66, 2024
• 二酸化炭素除去技術の社会的制約がもたらすエネルギーシステムへの影響
  江藤瞳; 森翔太郎; 齋藤啓貴; 大城賢; 藤森真一郎, 環境衛生工学研究, 38, 3, 61, 63, 2024
• 気候変動を考慮した将来の農業市場の分析
  吉田大輝; 藤森真一郎; 大城賢, 環境衛生工学研究, 38, 3, 25, 27, 2024
• 太陽光・風力発電の供給ポテンシャルの気候変動による変化がエネルギーシステムに与える影響の評価
  齋藤啓貴; 森翔太郎; 大城賢; 藤森真一郎, 環境衛生工学研究, 38, 3, 22, 24, 2024
• Exploring the Composition of Japan's Future Energy System Through the Japan Model Intercomparison Project 2: Net Zero
  Eamon Frazer; Tao Cao; Masahiro Sugiyama; Shinichro Fujimori; Kenichi Wada; Hiroto Shiraki; Etsushi Kato; Yuhji Matsuo; Osamu Nishiura; Ken Oshiro; Takashi Otsuki; Fuminori Sano; Hiroki Yoshida, エネルギー・資源学会研究発表会講演論文集, 43, 40, 44, 2024
• Reconsidering the lower end of long-term climate scenarios
  Shinichiro Fujimori; Osamu Nishiura; Ken Oshiro; Tomoko Hasegawa; Hiroto Shiraki; Hideo Shiogama; Kiyoshi Takahashi; Jun’ya Takakura; Kazuaki Tsuchiya; Masahiro Sugiyama; Shinichiro Asayama, PLOS Climate, 2, 11, e0000318, e0000318, 16 Nov. 2023
  Public Library of Science (PLoS)
• エネルギー費⽤を考慮した脱炭素社会シナリオ構築⼿法の開発と京都市への適⽤
  佐竹良介; 越智雄輝; 長谷川知子; 大城賢, 第31回地球環境シンポジウム講演集, 55, 60, Sep. 2023
  Japanese
• 脱炭素化の選択肢：応用一般均衡モデルを用いたバイオマスと直接大気回収の比較研究
  西浦 理; 藤森 真一郎; 大城 賢, 第31回地球環境シンポジウム講演集, 73, 76, Sep. 2023
• 2050 年全世界ネットゼロ達成に向けた先進国の役割の評価
  筒井 紀希; 藤森 真一郎; 大城 賢, 第31回地球環境シンポジウム講演集, 83, 88, Sep. 2023
• 異なる手法を用いた将来の全球PM2.5 および対流圏オゾン削減便益の経済価値評価
  関沢 賢; 藤森 真一郎; 大城 賢; 上田佳代, 第31回地球環境シンポジウム講演集, 99, 104, Sep. 2023, [Domestic magazines]
  土木学会, Japanese
• 気候変動が太陽光および風力発電の供給ポテンシャルに与える影響の評価
  齋藤啓貴; 森翔太郎; 大城賢; 藤森真一郎, 環境衛生工学研究, 37, 3, 80, 82, Jul. 2023, [Domestic magazines]
  京都大学環境衛生工学研究会, Japanese, Summary national conference
• 全世界を対象とした対流圏オゾンによる植生の CO2 吸収量への影響評価と気候変動緩和策の評価
  平原颯太郎; 関沢賢; 藤森真一郎; 大城賢; 伊藤昭彦; 長谷川知子, 環境衛生工学研究, 37, 3, 83, 85, Jul. 2023, [Domestic magazines]
  京都大学環境衛生工学研究会, Japanese, Summary national conference
• 2050 年全世界ネットゼロ達成に向けた先進国の役割に関する研究
  筒井紀希; 藤森真一郎; 大城賢, 環境衛生工学研究, 37, 3, 77, 79, Jul. 2023, [Domestic magazines]
  京都大学環境衛生工学研究会, Japanese, Summary national conference
• 応用一般均衡モデルを用いた気候変動緩和における合成燃料の役割の分析
  西浦理; 藤森真一郎; 大城賢, 環境衛生工学研究, 37, 3, 153, 155, Jul. 2023, [Domestic magazines]
  京都大学環境衛生工学研究会, Japanese, Summary national conference
• 世界を対象とした化学部門における CO2排出削減策としてのバイオマス・水素利用技術の役割
  森翔太郎; 大城賢; 藤森真一郎, 環境衛生工学研究, 37, 3, 156, 158, Jul. 2023, [Domestic magazines]
  京都大学環境衛生工学研究会, Japanese, Summary national conference
• 世界を対象とした NOx 排出削減による気候、健康、農業への影響評価
  山﨑航我; 藤森真一郎; 大城賢; 上谷明生; 関沢賢, 環境衛生工学研究, 37, 3, 54, 56, Jul. 2023, [Domestic magazines]
  京都大学環境衛生工学研究会, Japanese, Summary national conference
• 建設資材としての木材の利用促進が気候変動緩和に与える影響の評価
  吉田大輝; 筒井紀希; 西浦理; 藤森真一郎; 大城賢, 環境衛生工学研究, 37, 3, 86, 88, Jul. 2023, [Domestic magazines]
  京都大学環境衛生工学研究会, Japanese, Summary national conference
• 世界を対象とした気候変動および気候変動緩和策がもたらす貧困人口への影響
  丸田有美; 藤森真一郎; 高倉潤也; 大城賢; 高橋潔; 長谷川知子, 環境衛生工学研究, 37, 3, 74, 76, Jul. 2023, [Domestic magazines]
  京都大学環境衛生工学研究会, Japanese, Summary national conference
• 将来の全球 PM2.5 および対流圏オゾン健康影響負担の経済的評価
  関沢賢; 藤森真一郎; 大城賢; 上田佳代, 環境衛生工学研究, 37, 3, 57, 59, Jul. 2023, [Domestic magazines]
  京都大学環境衛生工学研究会, Japanese, Summary national conference
• Household energy security under stringent climate change mitigation goals of the Paris Agreement.
  ZHAO, S; Fujimori, S; OSHIRO, K; Sasaki, K; Hasegawa, T, Proceedings of the 30th Symposium on Global Environment, 83, 88, Aug. 2022
• 異なる所得階層を考慮した家計の食料需要モデルの開発
  佐々木克哉; 藤森真一郎; 大城賢; 長谷川知子; 趙詩雅, 第30回地球環境シンポジウム講演集, 77, 82, Aug. 2022
• Household energy security under stringent climate change mitigation
  ZHAO, S; Fujimori, S; OSHIRO, K; Sasaki, K; Hasegawa, T, Environmental & Sanitary Engineering Research, 36, 3, 60, 62, Jul. 2022
• 全世界を対象としたPM2.5由来の健康影響推計手法に関する検討
  関沢賢; 藤森真一郎; 大城賢; 渡邉諒一; 上田佳代, 環境衛生工学研究, 36, 3, 48, 50, Jul. 2022
• 世界全域を対象とした異なる水平解像度を用いた大気汚染の影響評価
  上谷明生; 関沢賢; 藤森真一郎; 大城賢; 長谷川知子; 渡邉諒一, 環境衛生工学研究, 36, 3, 51, 53, Jul. 2022
• 世界を対象とした2050年ネットゼロ排出達成における合成燃料の役割
  森翔太郎; 西浦理; 大城賢; 藤森真一郎, 環境衛生工学研究, 36, 3, 66, 68, Jul. 2022
• 新しい国別排出目標下での排出権取引の有効性
  筒井紀希; 西浦理; 藤森真一郎; 大城賢, 環境衛生工学研究, 36, 3, 69, 71, Jul. 2022
• EMF 35 JMIP study for Japan's long-term climate and energy policy: scenario designs and key findings (vol 16, pg 355, 2021)
  Masahiro Sugiyama; Shinichiro Fujimori; Kenichi Wada; Ken Oshiro; Etsushi Kato; Ryoichi Komiyama; Diego Silva Herran; Yuhji Matsuo; Hiroto Shiraki; Yiyi Ju, SUSTAINABILITY SCIENCE, 16, 5, 1771, 1771, Sep. 2021
  English, Others
• 交通部門の社会変革が気候変動政策へ及ぼす影響
  松井そら; 藤森真一郎; 大城賢; 西浦理, 環境衛生工学研究, 35, 3, 124, 126, Jul. 2021
• 家計の消費行動変化を考慮した日本における炭素税の異なる所得階層への影響
  佐々木克哉; 藤森真一郎; 大城賢; 長谷川知子, 環境衛生工学研究, 35, 3, 141, 143, Jul. 2021
• 世界およびアジアにおける炭素地下貯留技術の物理的制約を考慮した気候変更緩和策の評価
  西浦理; 藤森真一郎; 大城賢, 環境衛生工学研究, 35, 3, 144, 146, Jul. 2021
• Poverty and inequality implications of carbon pricing under the long-term climate target
  Shiya ZHAO; Shinichiro FUJIMORI; Ken OSHIRO; Tomoko HASEGAWA, 環境衛生工学研究, 35, 3, 135, 137, Jul. 2021
• 大規模CO₂排出削減に伴う座礁資産 日本の長期戦略を事例にした分析
  藤森真一郎; 大城賢, クリーンエネルギー, 30, 2, 55, 61, 10 Feb. 2021
• 日本の農畜産業における温室効果ガス排出削減に関する研究
  槇山直人; 長谷川知子; 大城賢; 藤森真一郎, 第28回地球環境シンポジウム講演集, 23, 53, 58, Sep. 2020
• Economic Impact and Mitigation Measures of Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emission in Asian Countries
  Osamu Nishiura; Shinichiro Fujimori; Ken Oshiro, 環境衛生工学研究, 34, 3, 4, 6, Jul. 2020
  Japanese
• 日本の中長期温室効果ガス排出削減シナリオのモデル分析
  大城賢, 環境衛生工学研究, 34, 2, 11, 14, Jun. 2020
  Japanese, 13442687;26954130
• Evaluation of long-term climate change mitigation policy of Japan: EMF 35 JMIP
  杉山昌広; 藤森真一郎; 藤森真一郎; 和田謙一; 加藤悦史; 小宮山涼一; 松尾雄司; 大城賢; HERRAN Diego Silva; HERRAN Diego Silva, エネルギー・資源学会研究発表会講演論文集(CD-ROM), 39th, 2020
• 日本の中期・長期的な緩和パスとその課題:モデル相互比較プロジェクトの試行
  杉山昌広; 藤森真一郎; 和田謙一; 遠藤聖也; 藤井康正; 小宮山涼一; 加藤悦史; 黒沢厚志; 松尾雄司; 大城賢; 佐野史典, エネルギーシステム・経済・環境コンファレンス講演論文集(CD-ROM), 33rd, ROMBUNNO.10‐5, 2017
  Japanese
• わが国における長期の温室効果ガス排出削減目標とその実現可能性
  増井利彦; 芦名秀一; 藤森真一郎; 藤野純一; 大城賢; 日比野剛, 横幹連合コンファレンス(CD-ROM), 6th, 367‐370, 05 Dec. 2015
  Japanese
• 地方自治体を対象とした低炭素社会シナリオ分析モデルの開発と福島県への適用
  芦名秀一; 白木裕斗; 大城賢; 岡和孝; 日比野剛, 日本エネルギー学会大会講演要旨集, 24th, 272, 273, 27 Jul. 2015
  The purpose of this study is to develop low carbon society scenario analysis model on prefectural scale and to examine its potential on designing prefectural low carbon society scenarios through application to Fukushima Prefecture. In the study, methodologies for formulating energy service and technology information for prefectural scale also established. The results clearly show that, by accelerating energy efficient technology diffusion and policy implementation for low carbon society, CO_2 emissions of the year 2050 in the Fukushima prefecture could cut more than 70% from the 2010 level. It is found from the results that taking actions in the residential, commercial and passenger transportation sector are key for achieving low carbon society in Fukushima Prefecture., The Japan Institute of Energy, Japanese
• Pathways toward 80% Reduction of Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Japan : Contribution to DDPP (Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project)
  増井 利彦; 大城 賢; 甲斐沼 美紀子, 環境研究 = Environmental research quarterly, 178, 89, 95, Jun. 2015
  日立財団, Japanese
• H-38 A 2050 Forecast Research of CO_2 Emissions Urban Residential Sector in Beijing
  XING Rui; IKAGA Toshiharu; OSHIRO Ken; KIMOTO Keisuke, 学術講演会論文集, 21, 2, 1527, 1530, 18 Aug. 2009
  These years residential energy consumption has been increasing sharply in China along with the high economic growth. Thus people pay much more attention to the issues of reducing the energy consumption and CO_2 emission. This study developed a Macro-model to forecast the CO_2 emission of residential buildings in China up to 2050. Former research reported results of Shanghai. And here we chose Beijing, the capital of China as another subject. By combining such Global warming count measures into the Macro-model it was able to forecast the CO_2 emission of Beijing's residential buildings in several energy-sufficient scenarios., The Society of Heating, Air-Conditioning Sanitary Engineers of Japan, Japanese
• 40518 Life Cycle Impact Assessment of Imported Wood Materials
  OSHIRO Ken, Summaries of technical papers of Annual Meeting Architectural Institute of Japan. D-1, Environmental engineering I, Room acoustics and acoustic environment noise and solidborne sound environmental vibration light and color water supply and drainage water environment urban installation and environmental management environmental psychology and physiology environmental design electro-magnetic environment, 2009, 1099, 1100, 20 Jul. 2009
  Architectural Institute of Japan, Japanese
• Study on utilization of wooden material (forest thinnings) in buildings:Examination of wood residue
  Kobayashi Kensuke; Oshiro Ken; Isobe Takayuki; Nakajima Shiro; Kuboyama Hirohumi; Tsunetsugu Yuko; Ikaga Toshiharu, Abstracts for ILCAJ meeting, 2009, 0, 191, 191, 2009
  木材は、適正な管理を行って利用すれば、永続的に生産可能な資源である。また、成長過程で炭素を吸収するため、燃焼時に実質的に炭素を放出しないとみなされるため、その利活用方法によっては、地球温暖化負荷の削減に大きく貢献できる可能性がある。本報告では、木材を大量に消費する建築分野を中心に、マテリアルフロー・炭素フロー分析を通して、木質バイオマス（特に林地残材・未利用間伐材）の利活用の可能性を探ることを目的として、検討を行った。, The Institute of Life Cycle Assessment, Japan, Japanese

• Post-2020 Climate Action: Global and Asian Perspectives
  Ken Oshiro; Toshihiko Masui; Mikiko Kainuma, Quantitative Analysis of Japan’s 2030 Target Based on AIM/CGE and AIM/Enduse
  Springer Singapore, 2017, 9789811038693, 143-156, English, [Contributor]
• Enabling Asia to Stabilise the Climate
  Toshihiko Masui; Ken Oshiro; Mikiko Kainuma, Eighty Percent Reduction Scenario in Japan
  Springer Singapore, 2016, 9789812878250, 55-66, English, [Contributor]

• The role of international power interconnections in East, Southeast, and South Asia under the 1.5°C goal
  Mori, S.; Fujimori, S.; Oshiro, K.
  18th Annual Meeting of the Integrated Assessment Modeling Consortium (IAMC) 2025
  12 Nov. 2025
• Services and Demand in the ScenarioMIP scenarios
  van Ruijven, B.; Zaini, T.; Kikstra, J.; Krey, V.; Fricko, O.; Mastrucci, A.; Javaid, A.; Kishimoto, P.; Pelz, S.; Oshiro, K.; Nishiura, O.; Koehler-Schindler, L.; Schaeffer, R.; Bernardo, L.; Rochedo, P.; Luderer, G.; Lecuyer, F.; Bertram, C.; George, M.; de Boer, H-S.; Daioglou, V.; Tagomori, I.; Fujimori, S.; Mori, S.; van Heerden, R.; Angelkort, G.; Sivolella, L.; Drouet, L.
  18th Annual Meeting of the Integrated Assessment Modeling Consortium (IAMC) 2025, 12 Nov. 2025
• Carbon dioxide removal deployment and sustainability assessment in the low emission scenarios for CMIP7
  Nishiura, O.; Fujimori, S.; Hasegawa, T.; Oshiro, K.; Hanaoka, T.; Takahashi, K.; Mori, S.; Yamazaki, K.; Baptista, L.B.; Angelkorte, G.; Schaeffer, R.; Rochedo, P.R.; Fuhrman, J.; McJeon, H.; George, M.; Daioglou, V.; Doelman, J.; de Boer, H-S.; van Vuuren, D.; Schmid, I.; Bos, A.; Yoga W.; Fricko, O.; Krey, V.; Riahi, K.; Joshi, S.; Gidden, M.; Wu, Y.; Frank, S.; Popp, A.; Humpenöder, F.; von Jeetze, P.; Karstens, K.; Strefler, J.; Drouet, L.; Pedraza, C.; Gambarini, M.
  18th Annual Meeting of the Integrated Assessment Modeling Consortium (IAMC) 2025, 28 Oct. 2025
• 社会経済状況による日本の脱炭素化シナリオへの影響評価
  奥脇隆之介; 大城賢; 森翔太郎; 江藤瞳; 藤森真一郎
  第33回地球環境シンポジウム, 26 Sep. 2025
• 脱炭素シナリオの分析におけるエネルギーシステムモデルの時間解像度の検討
  坂田晴; 森翔太郎; 江藤瞳; 大城賢; 藤森真一郎
  第33回地球環境シンポジウム, 26 Sep. 2025
• 長期将来シナリオを用いたメタン濃度の変化が対流圏オゾン濃度に与える影響の評価
  渡邉大輝; 山崎航我; 大杉祐斗; 藤森真一郎; 大城賢
  第33回地球環境シンポジウム, 26 Sep. 2025
• パリ協定1.5度・2度目標達成に向けた東・東南・南アジアにおける国際連系の役割
  森翔太郎; 藤森真一郎; 大城賢
  第33回地球環境シンポジウム, 24 Sep. 2025
• Direct Air Capture with Carbon Storage (DACCS) for India’s Net Zero Target
  Pathak, A.; Oshiro, K.; Vishwanathan, S.S.; Fujimori, S.
  第33回地球環境シンポジウム, 24 Sep. 2025
• 二酸化炭素除去技術の利用を制限した場合における2度目標達成の可能性
  江藤瞳; 森翔太郎; 大城賢; 藤森真一郎
  第33回地球環境シンポジウム, 24 Sep. 2025
• Social Scenarios Informed by Comprehensive Knowledge to Accelerate the Carbon-Neutral Transition
  杉山昌広; Hartwig Manuela; 白木裕斗; 天沢逸里; 亀山康子; 大城賢; 藤森真一郎; 菊池康紀; 大友順一郎; 谷口昇; 櫻井ひろ花; Correia James; 曹涛; Frazer Eamon; 杉山 正和
  環境経済・政策学会2025年大会, 20 Sep. 2025
• エネルギーシステムモデルの時間解像度が推計結果に与える影響の評価
  坂田晴; 森翔太郎; 江藤瞳; 大城賢; 藤森真一郎
  京都大学環境衛生工学研究会 第47回シンポジウム, 26 Jul. 2025
• 様々な社会経済状況下での日本の脱炭素シナリオの定量化
  奥脇隆之介; 大城賢; 森翔太郎; 江藤瞳; 藤森真一郎
  京都大学環境衛生工学研究会 第47回シンポジウム, 26 Jul. 2025
• Energy system implications of direct air capture on India’s net zero target
  Pathak, A.; Oshiro, K.; Vishwanathan, S.; Fujimori, S.
  京都大学環境衛生工学研究会 第47回シンポジウム, 25 Jul. 2025
• 二酸化炭素除去技術は2度目標達成に必要か
  江藤瞳; 森翔太郎; 大城賢; 藤森真一郎
  京都大学環境衛生工学研究会 第47回シンポジウム, 25 Jul. 2025
• Carbon Dioxide Removal in ScenarioMIP scenarios and extensions
  Hasegawa, T.; Fujimori, S.; Nishiura, O.; Oshiro, K.; Hanaoka, T.; Takahashi, K.; Mori, S.; Yamazaki, K.; Baptista, L.; Angelkort, G.; Rochedo, P.; Fuhrman, J.; McJeon, H.; George, M.; Daioglou, V.; Doelman, J.; Boer, H.; van Vuuren, D.; Schmidt, I.T.; Bos, A.; Pratama, Y.W.; Fricko, O.; Krey, V.; Riahi, K.; Joshi, S.; Gidden, M.; Wu, Y.; Frank, S.; Popp, A.; Humpenöder, F.; von Jeetze, P.; Karstens, K.; Strefler, J.; Drouet, L.; Pedraza, C.; Gambarini, M.
  Scenarios Forum 2025, 16 Jul. 2025
• JMIP2 Part 2: Strategies and Technology Sensitivities for the Decarbonisation of Energy Supply in Japan
  Frazer, E.; Cao, T.; Sugiyama, M.; Fujimori, S.; Wada, K.; Shiraki, H.; Hamasaki, H.; Kato, E.; Matsuo, Y.; Nishiura, O.; Oshiro, K.; Okubo, T.; Otsuki, T.; Sano, F.
  International Energy Workshop (IEW) 2025, 11 Jun. 2025
• Analysis of NDC and Net-Zero Emissions Targets of India
  Pathak, A.; Oshiro, K.; Vishwanathan, S.S.; Fujimori, S.
  Seventeenth Annual Meeting of the Integrated Assessment Modeling Consortium (IAMC) 2024, Nov. 2024, English, Poster presentation
  04 Nov. 2024 - 06 Nov. 2024, Yonsei University, Korea, Republic of, [International presentation]
• The Impact of Future Changes in Agricultural Land Allocation on Emission of Air Pollutants
  Yamazaki, K.; Fujimori, S.; Oshiro, K.; Hasegawa, T.
  Seventeenth Annual Meeting of the Integrated Assessment Modeling Consortium (IAMC) 2024, Nov. 2024, English, Oral presentation
  04 Nov. 2024 - 06 Nov. 2024, Yonsei University, Korea, Republic of, [International presentation]
• Assessment of Energy System Configurations Achieving a Complete Phase-out of Fossil Fuels
  Mori, S.; Oshiro, K.; Fujimori, S.; Joshi, S.; Krey, V.; Brito, T.
  Seventeenth Annual Meeting of the Integrated Assessment Modeling Consortium (IAMC) 2024, Nov. 2024, English, Oral presentation
  04 Nov. 2024 - 06 Nov. 2024, Yonsei University, Korea, Republic of, [International presentation]
• Challenges and Benefits of Japan's Hydrogen Society Vision: Some Insights Based on Japan Model Intercomparison Project 2 Net Zero
  Tao Cao; Eamon Frazer; Masahiro Sugiyama; Kenichi Wada; Hiroto Shiraki; Etsushi Kato; Yuhji Matsuo; Osamu Nishiura; Ken Oshiro; Takashi Otsuki; Fuminori Sano; Yoshida, Hiroki
  Seventeenth Annual Meeting of the Integrated Assessment Modeling Consortium (IAMC) 2024, Nov. 2024, English, Oral presentation
  04 Nov. 2024 - 06 Nov. 2024, Yonsei University, Korea, Republic of, [International presentation]
• Benefits of decarbonization actions without a carbon price
  Zhao, S.; Fujimori, S.; Oshiro, K.; Hasegawa, T.
  Seventeenth Annual Meeting of the Integrated Assessment Modeling Consortium (IAMC) 2024, Nov. 2024, English, Oral presentation
  04 Nov. 2024 - 06 Nov. 2024, Yonsei University, Korea, Republic of, [International presentation]
• How ammonia can play a role in climate change, air quality, and N deposition by being a carbon-free fuel?
  Jansakoo, T.; Fujimori, S.; Hasegawa, T.; Oshiro, K.; Yamazaki, K.; Osugi, Y.
  Seventeenth Annual Meeting of the Integrated Assessment Modeling Consortium (IAMC) 2024, 2024, English, Oral presentation
  04 Nov. 2024 - 06 Nov. 2024, Yonsei University, Korea, Republic of, [International presentation]
• 将来の農地分布の変化が大気汚染物質排出に与える影響の評価
  山﨑航我; 藤森真一郎; 大城賢
  第32回地球環境シンポジウム, 26 Sep. 2024
• 2050年CO2実質ゼロ排出シナリオにおける東アジアの国際送電網の役割
  森翔太郎; 大城賢; 藤森真一郎
  第32回地球環境シンポジウム, 24 Sep. 2024
• 気候変動による食料安全保障への国別スケールでの影響評価
  吉田大輝; 藤森真一郎; 大城賢; 長谷川知子
  第32回地球環境シンポジウム, 24 Sep. 2024
• 気候変動が変動性再生可能エネルギーへの影響を通じてエネルギーシステムに与える影響の評価
  齋藤啓貴; 森翔太郎; 大城賢; 藤森真一郎
  第32回地球環境シンポジウム, 24 Sep. 2024
• 将来の気候変動緩和に伴う大気質改善による障害生存年数の定量化
  内田寛也; 関沢賢; 藤森真一郎; 大城賢; 山﨑航我
  第32回地球環境シンポジウム, 24 Sep. 2024
• The multidimensional global poverty and income inequality landscape in a decarbonizing world
  Shiya Zhao; Shinichiro Fujimori; Jihoon Min; Jarmo Kikstra; Tomoko Hasegawa; Ken Oshiro; Saritha Vishwanathan
  第32回地球環境シンポジウム, 24 Sep. 2024
• Analysis of NDC and Net-Zero Emissions Targets of India Using AIM-Technology Model
  Anuj Pathak; Ken Oshiro; Saritha Vishwanathan; Shinichiro Fujimori
  第32回地球環境シンポジウム, 24 Sep. 2024
• 全世界を対象としたNOxおよびNH3の排出量変化に対する窒素沈着量の応答
  大杉祐斗; 藤森真一郎; 山崎航我; 大城賢
  第32回地球環境シンポジウム, 24 Sep. 2024
• 二酸化炭素除去技術の導入における社会的制約がエネルギーシステムに及ぼす影響の評価
  江藤瞳; 森翔太郎; 齋藤啓貴; 大城賢; 藤森真一郎
  第32回地球環境シンポジウム, 24 Sep. 2024
• 日本の脱炭素シナリオにおける所得階層を考慮した家計消費への影響評価
  川口誠也; 藤森真一郎; 大城賢; 丸田有美; 吉田大輝; 趙詩雅; 長谷川知子
  第32回地球環境シンポジウム, 24 Sep. 2024
• 1.5℃目標下における先進国から途上国への 資金援助によるマクロ経済影響に関する研究
  范蠡萌; 藤森真一郎; 筒井紀希; 吉田大輝; 西浦理; 大城賢
  第32回地球環境シンポジウム, 24 Sep. 2024
• 所得階層別の気候変動影響を考慮した気候変動緩和策の貧困への影響
  丸田有美; 藤森真一郎; 高倉潤也; 大城賢; 趙詩雅; 高橋潔; 長谷川知子
  第32回地球環境シンポジウム, 24 Sep. 2024
• The Impact of Future Changes in Agricultural Land Distribution on Emission of Air Pollutants
  Koga Yamazaki; Shinichiro Fujimori; Ken Oshiro
  16th iCACGP- 18th IGAC,, 12 Sep. 2024
• ネットゼロ排出達成に向けた東アジアにおける国際連系の役割の評価
  森翔太郎; 大城賢; 藤森真一郎
  環境科学会 2024年会, 10 Sep. 2024
• Benefits of air quality for human health resulting from climate change mitigation through dietary change and food loss prevention policy
  Thanapat Jansakoo; Satoshi Sekizawa; Shinichiro Fujimori; Tomoko Hasegawa; Ken Oshiro
  16th iCACGP- 18th IGAC, 09 Sep. 2024
• 気候変動緩和に伴う大気質改善による障害生存年数の定量
  内田寛也; 関沢賢; 藤森真一郎; 大城賢; 山﨑航我
  京都大学環境衛生工学研究会 第46回シンポジウム, 27 Jul. 2024
• 将来の土地被覆の変化が大気汚染へ与える影響の評価
  山﨑航我; 藤森真一郎; 大城賢
  京都大学環境衛生工学研究会 第46回シンポジウム, 27 Jul. 2024
• 世界全体でのNOxおよびNH3の排出量変化が窒素沈着量に与える影響の評価
  大杉祐斗; 藤森真一郎; 山崎航我; 大城賢
  京都大学環境衛生工学研究会 第46回シンポジウム, 27 Jul. 2024
• 途上国への投資資金援助による経済影響の評価
  范蠡萌; 藤森真一郎; 筒井紀希; 吉田大輝; 西浦理; 大城賢
  京都大学環境衛生工学研究会 第46回シンポジウム, 27 Jul. 2024
• 日本の2050年脱炭素シナリオが異なる所得階層へ与える影響の評価
  川口誠也; 藤森真一郎; 大城賢; 丸田有美; 吉田大輝; 趙詩雅; 長谷川知子
  京都大学環境衛生工学研究会 第46回シンポジウム, 27 Jul. 2024
• 二酸化炭素除去技術の社会的制約がもたらすエネルギーシステムへの影響
  江藤瞳; 森翔太郎; 齋藤啓貴; 大城賢; 藤森真一郎
  京都大学環境衛生工学研究会 第46回シンポジウム, 27 Jul. 2024
• Analysis of Short-term (NDC) and Long-term (Net Zero) Emission Targets of India Using AIM-Technology Model
  Anuj Pathak; Ken Oshiro; Shinichro Fujimori; Saritha Vishwanathan
  Forty-sixth Symposium of the Environmental & Sanitary Engineering Research, 26 Jul. 2024
• 気候変動を考慮した将来の農業市場の分析
  吉田大輝; 藤森真一郎; 大城賢
  京都大学環境衛生工学研究会 第46回シンポジウム, 26 Jul. 2024
• 太陽光・風力発電の供給ポテンシャルの気候変動による変化がエネルギーシステムに与える影響の評価
  齋藤啓貴; 森翔太郎; 大城賢; 藤森真一郎
  京都大学環境衛生工学研究会 第46回シンポジウム, 26 Jul. 2024
• Eating less meat or capturing carbon from the atmosphere? Conflicted public feelings in making sense of different net-zero GHG pathways
  Shinichiro Asayama; Shiichiro Fujimori; Ken Oshiro; Tomoko Hasegawa; Hiroto Shiraki; Masahiro Sugiyama
  International Conference on Negative CO₂ Emissions 2024, 21 Jun. 2024, English, Oral presentation
  18 Jun. 2024 - 21 Jun. 2024, [International presentation]
• 日本のネットゼロ達成のための二酸化炭素除去：シナリオと政策ミックス
  杉山昌広; 大城賢; 大槻貴司; 加藤悦史; 木村宰; 冨田哲也; 西浦理; 藤森真一郎; 松尾雄司; 和田謙一
  第40回エネルギーシステム・経済・環境コンファレンス, 31 Jan. 2024, エネルギー・資源学会, Japanese, Oral presentation
  30 Jan. 2024 - 31 Jan. 2024, 東京大学 生産技術研究所（駒場Ⅱキャンパス）, Japan
• Reconsidering the lower end of long-term climate scenario
  Shinichiro Fujimori; Ken Oshiro; Tomoko Hasegawa; Hiroto Shiraki; Hideo Shiogama; Kiyoshi Takahashi; Jun’ya Takakura; Kazuaki Tsuchiya; Masahiro Sugiyama; Asayama, S
  sixteenth Annual Meeting of the Integrated Assessment Modeling Consortium (IAMC) 2023, 16 Nov. 2023, English, Oral presentation
  14 Nov. 2023 - 16 Nov. 2023, Hilton Molino Stucky, Venice, Italy
• Assessing the climate, health, and agricultural impacts of global NOx emission reductions
  Koga Yamazaki; Shinichiro Fujimori; Ken Oshiro; Akio Uetani; Satoshi Sekizawa
  sixteenth Annual Meeting of the Integrated Assessment Modeling Consortium (IAMC) 2023, 16 Nov. 2023, English, Poster presentation
  14 Nov. 2023 - 16 Nov. 2023, Hilton Molino Stucky, Venice, Italy(online)
• Climate change mitigation through dietary change and food loss reduction co-benefits air quality and human health
  Thanapat Jansakoo; Satoshi Sekizawa; Shinichiro Fujimori; Tomoko Hasegawa; Ken Oshiro
  sixteenth Annual Meeting of the Integrated Assessment Modeling Consortium (IAMC) 2023, 16 Nov. 2023, English, Oral presentation
  14 Nov. 2023 - 16 Nov. 2023, Hilton Molino Stucky, Venice, Italy
• What do the net-zero ambitions mean for the Paris Agreement goals? A country-based analysis
  Diuana, F.A; Tagomori, I; Morais, T.N; Cho, C; Moon, J; Eom, J; Fujimori, S; Oshiro, K; Tran, T.-T; Agarwal, S.S; Anjum, S; Chaudhury, S; Hernadez, T; Buira, D; Tovilla, J; Analítica, T; Limmeechokchai, B; Pradhan, B.B; Chaichaloempreecha, A; Vishwanathan; S.S., Vastrapur; Vuuren, D.v; Schaeffer, R
  sixteenth Annual Meeting of the Integrated Assessment Modeling Consortium (IAMC) 2023, 15 Nov. 2023, English, Oral presentation
  14 Nov. 2023 - 16 Nov. 2023
• Role of hydrogen co-firing on global power system decarbonization
  Ken Oshiro; Shinichiro Fujimori
  sixteenth Annual Meeting of the Integrated Assessment Modeling Consortium (IAMC) 2023, 15 Nov. 2023, English, Oral presentation
  14 Nov. 2023 - 16 Nov. 2023, Hilton Molino Stucky, Venice, Italy
• Exploring the synergies and tradeoffs between deep climate mitigation and poverty and inequality alleviation: incorporating household heterogeneity into global macro-energy models
  Shiya ZHAO; Shinichiro FUJIMORI; Tomoko HASEGAWA; Ken OSHIRO; Jarmo KIKSTRA
  sixteenth Annual Meeting of the Integrated Assessment Modeling Consortium (IAMC) 2023, 15 Nov. 2023, English, Oral presentation
  14 Nov. 2023 - 16 Nov. 2023, Hilton Molino Stucky, Venice, Italy
• Mitigation of rapid end-use technology transition with synthetic fuels in net-zero emissions scenarios
  Shotaro Mori; Osamu Nishiura; Shinichiro Fujimori; Oshiro, K
  sixteenth Annual Meeting of the Integrated Assessment Modeling Consortium (IAMC) 2023, 15 Nov. 2023, English, Oral presentation
  14 Nov. 2023 - 16 Nov. 2023, Hilton Molino Stucky, Venice, Italy
• Global poverty implications of climate change and its mitigation
  Yumi MARUTA; Shinichiro FUJIMORI; Junya TAKAKURA; Ken OSHIRO; Kiyoshi TAKAHASHI; Tomoko HASEGAWA
  sixteenth Annual Meeting of the Integrated Assessment Modeling Consortium (IAMC) 2023, 15 Nov. 2023, English, Oral presentation
  14 Nov. 2023 - 16 Nov. 2023, Hilton Molino Stucky, Venice, Italy
• A Comparative Study of Biomass-Based and Direct Air Capture-Based Mitigation Technologies for Decarbonization
  Osamu NISHIURA; Shinichiro Fujimori; Ken Oshiro
  sixteenth Annual Meeting of the Integrated Assessment Modeling Consortium (IAMC) 2023, 15 Nov. 2023, English, Poster presentation
  14 Nov. 2023 - 16 Nov. 2023, Hilton Molino Stucky, Venice, Italy
• エネルギー費⽤を考慮した脱炭素社会シナリオ構築⼿法の開発と京都市への適⽤
  佐竹良介; 越智雄輝; 谷川知子; 大城賢
  第31回地球環境シンポジウム, 21 Sep. 2023, Japanese, Oral presentation
  19 Sep. 2023 - 21 Sep. 2023
• 全世界を対象とした⽊材による鉄鋼・セメントの代替が気候変動緩和に与える影響の評価
  吉田大輝; 筒井紀希; 浦理; 藤森真一郎; 大城賢
  第31回地球環境シンポジウム, 21 Sep. 2023, Japanese, Oral presentation
  19 Sep. 2023 - 21 Sep. 2023, 滋賀県立大学
• 世界を対象としたエネルギーシステムモデルによる化学部⾨の CO2 排出削減策の評価
  森翔太郎; 大城賢; 藤森真一郎
  第31回地球環境シンポジウム, 21 Sep. 2023, Japanese, Oral presentation
  19 Sep. 2023 - 21 Sep. 2023, 滋賀県立大学
• 世界を対象とした気候変動および気候変動緩和策による貧困影響の評価
  丸田有美; 藤森真一郎; 高倉潤也; 大城賢; 高橋潔; 谷川知子
  第31回地球環境シンポジウム, 21 Sep. 2023, Japanese, Oral presentation
  19 Sep. 2023 - 21 Sep. 2023, 滋賀県立大学
• 世界規模の NOx 排出削減がもたらす気候、健康、農業への影響に関する研究
  山﨑航我; 藤森真一郎; 大城賢; 上谷明生; 関沢賢
  第31回地球環境シンポジウム, 20 Sep. 2023, Japanese, Oral presentation
  19 Sep. 2023 - 21 Sep. 2023, 滋賀県立大学
• 世界を対象とした対流圏オゾンによる植⽣の CO2 吸収量への影響評価と気候変動緩和策への含意
  平原颯太郎; 関沢賢; 藤森真一郎; 大城賢; 伊藤昭仁; 谷川知子
  第31回地球環境シンポジウム, 20 Sep. 2023, Japanese, Oral presentation
  19 Sep. 2023 - 21 Sep. 2023, 滋賀県立大学
• 気候変動が変動性再⽣可能エネルギーの供給ポテンシャルに与える影響の評価
  齋藤啓貴; 森翔太郎; 大城賢; 藤森真一郎
  第31回地球環境シンポジウム, 19 Sep. 2023, Japanese, Oral presentation
  19 Sep. 2023 - 21 Sep. 2023, 滋賀県立大学
• 脱炭素化の選択肢：応⽤⼀般均衡モデルを⽤いたバイオマスと直接⼤気回収の⽐較研究
  西浦理; 藤森真一郎; 大城賢
  第31回地球環境シンポジウム, 19 Sep. 2023, Japanese, Poster presentation
  19 Sep. 2023 - 21 Sep. 2023, 滋賀県立大学
• 2050 年全世界ネットゼロ達成に向けた先進国の役割の評価
  筒井紀希; 藤森真一郎; 大城賢
  第31回地球環境シンポジウム, 19 Sep. 2023, Japanese, Poster presentation
  19 Sep. 2023 - 21 Sep. 2023, 滋賀県立大学
• 異なる⼿法を⽤いた将来の全球 PM2.5 および対流圏オゾン削減便益の経済価値評価
  関沢賢; 藤森真一郎; 大城賢; 上田佳代
  第31回地球環境シンポジウム, 19 Sep. 2023, Japanese, Poster presentation
  19 Sep. 2023 - 21 Sep. 2023, 滋賀県立大学
• Influence of Climate Change and its Mitigation Measures on Global Poverty
  Yumi Maruta; Shinichiro Fujimori; Junya Takakura; Ken OSHIRO; Kiyoshi Takahashi; Tomoko Hasegawa
  The 29th AIM International Workshop, 14 Sep. 2023, English, Poster presentation
  14 Sep. 2023 - 16 Sep. 2023, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan
• Assessment of the Impacts of Wood Substitution for Steel and Cement in Building Materials on Climate Change Mitigation
  Yoshida Hiroki; Toshiki Tsutsui; Osamu NISHIURA; Shiichiro Fujimori; Ken OSHIRO
  The 29th AIM International Workshop, 14 Sep. 2023, English, Poster presentation
  14 Sep. 2023 - 15 Sep. 2023, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan
• An Assessment of the Role of Synthetic Fuels in Mitigating the Rapid End-Use Technology Transition in NetZero Emissions Scenarios
  Shotaro Mori; Osamu NISHIURA; Ken OSHIRO; Shiichiro Fujimori
  The 29th AIM International Workshop, 14 Sep. 2023, English, Poster presentation
  14 Sep. 2023 - 15 Sep. 2023, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan
• Comparative Analysis of Biomass-Based and Direct Air Capture-Based Technologies for Decarbonization
  Osamu Nishiura; Shiichiro Fujimori; Ken OSHIRO
  The 29th AIM International Workshop, 14 Sep. 2023, English, Poster presentation
  14 Sep. 2023 - 15 Sep. 2023, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan
• Assessing the Climate, Health, and Agricultural Impacts of Global NOx Emission Reductions
  Koga Yamazaki; Shiichiro Fujimori; Ken OSHIRO; Akio Uetani; Satoshi Sekizawa
  The 29th AIM International Workshop, 14 Sep. 2023, English, Poster presentation
  14 Sep. 2023 - 15 Sep. 2023, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan
• 気候変動が太陽光および風力発電の供給ポテンシャルに与える影響の評価
  齋藤啓貴; 森翔太郎; 大城賢; 藤森真一郎
  第45回京都大学環境衛生工学研究会シンポジウム, 29 Jul. 2023, 京都大学環境衛生工学研究会, Japanese, Oral presentation
  28 Jul. 2023 - 29 Jul. 2023, 京都大学, [Domestic Conference]
• 全世界を対象とした対流圏オゾンによる植生の CO2 吸収量への影響評価と気候変動緩和策の評価
  平原颯太郎; 関沢賢; 藤森真一郎; 大城賢; 伊藤昭仁; 長谷川知子
  第45回京都大学環境衛生工学研究会シンポジウム, 29 Jul. 2023, 京都大学環境衛生工学研究会, Japanese, Oral presentation
  28 Jul. 2023 - 29 Jul. 2023, 京都大学, [Domestic Conference]
• 2050 年全世界ネットゼロ達成に向けた先進国の役割に関する研究
  筒井紀希; 藤森真一郎; 大城賢
  第45回京都大学環境衛生工学研究会シンポジウム, 29 Jul. 2023, 京都大学環境衛生工学研究会, Japanese, Oral presentation
  28 Jul. 2023 - 29 Jul. 2023, 京都大学, [Domestic Conference]
• 世界を対象とした NOx 排出削減による気候、健康、農業への影響評価
  山﨑航我; 藤森真一郎; 大城賢; 上谷明生; 関沢賢
  第45回京都大学環境衛生工学研究会シンポジウム, 29 Jul. 2023, 京都大学環境衛生工学研究会, Japanese, Oral presentation
  28 Jul. 2023 - 29 Jul. 2023, 京都大学, [Domestic Conference]
• 建設資材としての木材の利用促進が気候変動緩和に与える影響の評価
  吉田大輝; 筒井紀希; 西浦理; 藤森真一郎; 大城賢
  第45回京都大学環境衛生工学研究会シンポジウム, 29 Jul. 2023, 京都大学環境衛生工学研究会, Japanese, Oral presentation
  28 Jul. 2023 - 29 Jul. 2023, 京都大学, [Domestic Conference]
• 世界を対象とした気候変動および気候変動緩和策がもたらす貧困人口への影響
  丸田有美; 藤森真一郎; 高倉潤也; 大城賢; 高橋潔; 長谷川知子
  第45回京都大学環境衛生工学研究会シンポジウム, 29 Jul. 2023, 京都大学環境衛生工学研究会, Japanese, Oral presentation
  28 Jul. 2023 - 29 Jul. 2023, 京都大学, [Domestic Conference]
• 将来の全球 PM2.5 および対流圏オゾン健康影響負担の経済的評価
  関沢賢; 藤森真一郎; 大城賢; 上田佳代
  第45回京都大学環境衛生工学研究会シンポジウム, 29 Jul. 2023, 京都大学環境衛生工学研究会, Japanese, Oral presentation
  28 Jul. 2023 - 29 Jul. 2023, 京都大学, [Domestic Conference]
• 応用一般均衡モデルを用いた気候変動緩和における合成燃料の役割の分析
  西浦理; 藤森真一郎; 大城賢
  第45回京都大学環境衛生工学研究会シンポジウム, 28 Jul. 2023, 京都大学環境衛生工学研究会, Japanese, Poster presentation
  28 Jul. 2023 - 29 Jul. 2023, 京都大学, [Domestic Conference]
• 世界を対象とした化学部門における CO2排出削減策としてのバイオマス・水素利用技術の役割
  森翔太郎; 大城賢; 藤森真一郎
  第45回京都大学環境衛生工学研究会シンポジウム, 28 Jul. 2023, 京都大学環境衛生工学研究会, Japanese, Poster presentation
  28 Jul. 2023 - 29 Jul. 2023, 京都大学, [Domestic Conference]
• IAMC data template applications and extensions in Japan and Asian modelling activities, Scientific Working Group on Data Protocols and Management
  Ken Oshiro; Shinichiro Fujimori; Masahiro, Sugiyama
  Fifteenth Annual Meeting of the Integrated Assessment Modeling Consortium (IAMC) 2022, 01 Dec. 2022, English, Oral presentation
  29 Nov. 2022 - 01 Dec. 2022, College Park, MD, United States, [International presentation]
• Household energy security under stringent climate change mitigation to achieve the long-term temperature goal of the Paris Agreement
  Shiya Zhao; Shinichiro Fujimori; Tomoko Hasegawa; Ken Oshiro; Katsuya Sasaki
  Fifteenth Annual Meeting of the Integrated Assessment Modeling Consortium (IAMC) 2022, 01 Dec. 2022, English, Oral presentation
  29 Nov. 2022 - 01 Dec. 2022, College Park, MD, United States, [International presentation]
• The potential of carbon capture and utilization for global net-zero emission energy systems
  Ken Oshiro; Shinichiro Fujimori
  Fifteenth Annual Meeting of the Integrated Assessment Modeling Consortium (IAMC) 2022, 30 Nov. 2022, English, Oral presentation
  29 Nov. 2022 - 01 Dec. 2022, College Park, MD, United States, [International presentation]
• Effectiveness of emissions trading under the updated national emissions targets by 2030
  Toshiki Tsutsui; Osamu Nishiura; Shinichiro Fujimori; Ken Oshiro
  Fifteenth Annual Meeting of the Integrated Assessment Modeling Consortium (IAMC) 2022, 30 Nov. 2022, English, Oral presentation
  29 Nov. 2022 - 01 Dec. 2022, College Park, MD, United States, [International presentation]
• Climate change cost decomposition
  Shinichiro Fujimori; Ken Oshiro; Tomoko Hasegawa; Hiroto Shiraki; Junya Takakura; Kiyoshi Takakura
  Fifteenth Annual Meeting of the Integrated Assessment Modeling Consortium (IAMC) 2022, 30 Nov. 2022, English, Oral presentation
  29 Nov. 2022 - 01 Dec. 2022, College Park, MD, United States, [International presentation]
• An assessment of direct air capture to meet the long-term climate target of the Paris Agreement using a computable general equilibrium model
  Osamu Nishiura; Shinichiro Fujimori; Ken Oshiro
  Fifteenth Annual Meeting of the Integrated Assessment Modeling Consortium (IAMC) 2022, 30 Nov. 2022, English, Poster presentation
  29 Nov. 2022 - 01 Dec. 2022, College Park, MD, United States, [International presentation]
• Comparison of global air pollution impacts across horizontal resolutions
  Thanapat Jansakoo; Ryouichi Watanabe; Akio Uetani; Satoshi Sekizawa; Shinichiro Fujimori; Tomoko Hasegawa; Ken Oshiro
  Fifteenth Annual Meeting of the Integrated Assessment Modeling Consortium (IAMC) 2022, 30 Nov. 2022, English, Poster presentation
  29 Nov. 2022 - 01 Dec. 2022, College Park, MD, United States, [International presentation]
• A multi-model analysis of Japan’s net zero target: residual emissions and the role of carbon dioxide removal
  Masahiro Sugiyama; Shinichiro Fujimori; Kenichi Wada; Etsushi Kato; Ryoichi Komiyama; Yuhji Matsuo; Osamu Nishiura; Ken Oshiro; Takashi Otsuki
  Fifteenth Annual Meeting of the Integrated Assessment Modeling Consortium (IAMC) 2022, 30 Nov. 2022, English, Poster presentation
  29 Nov. 2022 - 01 Dec. 2022, College Park, MD, United States, [International presentation]
• 世界を対象としたネットゼロ排出シナリオにおける合成燃料の役割
  森翔太郎; 西浦理; 大城賢; 藤森真一郎
  第30回地球環境シンポジウム, 02 Sep. 2022, 土木学会, Japanese, Oral presentation
  31 Aug. 2022 - 02 Sep. 2022, 北海道大学工学部, Japan, [Domestic Conference]
• ⼆酸化炭素直接回収技術を考慮した応⽤⼀般均衡モデルの開発および気候変動緩和策の評価
  西浦理; 藤森真一郎; 大城賢
  第30回地球環境シンポジウム, 02 Sep. 2022, 土木学会, Japanese, Oral presentation
  31 Aug. 2022 - 02 Sep. 2022, 北海道大学工学部, Japan, [Domestic Conference]
• ⽇本の2050年ネットゼロ排出⽬標における残存排出量削減⽅策のシナリオ分析
  大城賢; 藤森真一郎
  第30回地球環境シンポジウム, 02 Sep. 2022, 土木学会, Japanese, Oral presentation
  31 Aug. 2022 - 02 Sep. 2022, 北海道大学工学部, Japan, [Domestic Conference]
• 各国の 2030 年温室効果ガス排出⽬標更新を踏まえた排出量取引の有効性
  筒井紀希; 西浦理; 藤森真一郎; 大城賢
  第30回地球環境シンポジウム, 02 Sep. 2022, 土木学会, Japanese, Oral presentation
  31 Aug. 2022 - 02 Sep. 2022, 北海道大学工学部, Japan, [Domestic Conference]
• 全世界を対象とした異なる PM2.5 由来の健康影響評価関数に関する研究
  関沢賢; 渡邉諒一; 藤森真一郎; 大城賢; 上田佳代
  第30回地球環境シンポジウム, 01 Sep. 2022, 土木学会, Japanese, Oral presentation
  31 Aug. 2022 - 02 Sep. 2022, 北海道大学工学部, Japan, [Domestic Conference]
• 世界全域を対象とした異なる⽔平解像度を⽤いた⼤気汚染の影響評価
  渡邉諒一; 上谷明生; 関沢賢; 藤森真一郎; 長谷川知子; 大城賢
  第30回地球環境シンポジウム, 01 Sep. 2022, 土木学会, Japanese, Oral presentation
  31 Aug. 2022 - 02 Sep. 2022, 北海道大学工学部, Japan, [Domestic Conference]
• 異なる所得階層を考慮した家計の⾷料需要モデルの開発
  佐々木克哉; 藤森真一郎; 大城賢; 長谷川知子; 趙詩雅
  第30回地球環境シンポジウム, 31 Aug. 2022, 土木学会, Japanese, Oral presentation
  31 Aug. 2022 - 02 Sep. 2022, 北海道大学工学部, Japan, [Domestic Conference]
• Household energy security under stringent climate change mitigation goals of the Paris Agreement
  Zhao, S; Fujimori, S; Hasegawa, T; Oshiro, K; Sasaki, K
  the 30th Symposium on GlobalEnvironment, 31 Aug. 2022, English, Poster presentation
  31 Aug. 2022 - 02 Sep. 2022, Hokkaido University, Japan, [Domestic Conference]
• 新しい国別排出目標下での排出権取引の有効性
  筒井紀希; 西浦理; 藤森真一郎; 大城賢
  第44回京都大学環境衛生工学研究会シンポジウム, 30 Jul. 2022, 京都大学環境衛生工学研究会, Japanese, Oral presentation
  29 Jul. 2022 - 30 Jul. 2022, 京都大学, Japan, [Domestic Conference]
• 世界を対象とした2050年ネットゼロ排出達成における合成燃料の役割
  森翔太郎; 西浦理; 大城賢; 藤森真一郎
  第44回京都大学環境衛生工学研究会シンポジウム, 30 Jul. 2022, 京都大学環境衛生工学研究会, Japanese, Oral presentation
  29 Jul. 2022 - 30 Jul. 2022, 京都大学, Japan, [Domestic Conference]
• 世界全域を対象とした異なる水平解像度を用いた大気汚染の影響評価
  上谷明生; 関沢賢; 藤森真一郎; 大城賢; 長谷川知子; 渡邉諒一
  第44回京都大学環境衛生工学研究会シンポジウム, 30 Jul. 2022, 京都大学環境衛生工学研究会, Japanese, Oral presentation
  29 Jul. 2022 - 30 Jul. 2022, 京都大学, Japan, [Domestic Conference]
• 全世界を対象としたPM2.5由来の健康影響推計手法に関する検討
  関沢賢; 藤森真一郎; 大城賢; 渡邉諒一; 上田佳代
  第44回京都大学環境衛生工学研究会シンポジウム, 30 Jul. 2022, 京都大学環境衛生工学研究会, Japanese, Oral presentation
  29 Jul. 2022 - 30 Jul. 2022, 京都大学, Japan, [Domestic Conference]
• Poverty and equity implications of national climate change mitigation policies in line with the Paris Agreement.
  ZHAO, S; FUJIMORI, S; OSHIRO, K; HASEGAWA, T; SASAKI, K
  Scenarios Forum 2022, 21 Jun. 2022, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, English, Oral presentation
  20 Jun. 2022 - 22 Jun. 2022, Hybrid: Onsite (Laxenburg Conference Center, Austria)+ Online, Austria, [International presentation]
• AIM/Technology-Japanによる脱炭素シナリオ分析
  大城賢
  環境研究総合推進費 2-2104国民対話シンポジウム 「シナリオ研究とトランジション研究で迫る脱炭素の姿」, 21 Dec. 2021, Japanese, Nominated symposium
  オンライン, [Domestic Conference]
• A Global Roll-out of Nationally Relevant Policies can Bridge the Emissions Gap
  Heleen VAN SOEST; Lara Aleluia Reis; Luiz Bernardo Baptista; Christoph Bertram; Jacques Despres; Laurent Drouet; Michel den Elzen; Panagiotis Fragkos; Oliver Fricko; Shinichiro Fujimori; Neil Grant; Mathijs Harmsen; Gokul Iyer; Kimon Keramidas; Alexandre Koeberle; Elmar Kriegler; Aman Malik; Shivika Mittal; Ken Oshiro; Keywan Riahi; Mark Roelfsema; Bas van Ruijven; Roberto Schaeffer; Diego Silva Herran; Massimo Tavoni; Gamze Unlu; Toon Vandyck; Detlef van Vuuren
  Fourteenth Annual Meeting of the Integrated Assessment Modeling Consortium (IAMC) 2021, 02 Dec. 2021, English, Oral presentation
  29 Nov. 2021 - 03 Dec. 2021, online. (The meeting Time Zone is UTC.)., [International presentation], ［Internationally co-authored］
• An assessment of global and Asian climate change mitigation measures considering carbon capture and storage constraints
  Osamu NISHIURA; Shinichiro FUJIMORI; Ken OSHIRO
  Fourteenth Annual Meeting of the Integrated Assessment Modeling Consortium (IAMC) 2021, 02 Dec. 2021, English, Poster presentation
  29 Nov. 2021 - 03 Dec. 2021, online. (The meeting Time Zone is UTC.)., [International presentation]
• Poverty and inequality implications of carbon pricing under the long-term climate target
  Shiya ZHAO; Shinichiro Fujimori; Tomoko Hasegawa; Ken Oshiro; Katsuya Sasaki
  Fourteenth Annual Meeting of the Integrated Assessment Modeling Consortium (IAMC) 2021, 02 Dec. 2021, English, Poster presentation
  29 Nov. 2021 - 03 Dec. 2021, online. (The meeting Time Zone is UTC.)., [International presentation]
• Distributional impact of carbon taxes on household consumption in Japan
  Katsuya Sasaki; Shinichiro Fujimori; Ken OSHIRO; Tomoko Hasegawa; Shiya ZHAO
  Fourteenth Annual Meeting of the Integrated Assessment Modeling Consortium (IAMC) 2021, 01 Dec. 2021, English, Oral presentation
  29 Nov. 2021 - 03 Dec. 2021, online. (The meeting Time Zone is UTC.)., [International presentation]
• The role of hydrogen-based energy carriers in meeting the decarbonization goals of the Paris Agreement
  Ken OSHIRO; Shiichiro Fujimori
  Fourteenth Annual Meeting of the Integrated Assessment Modeling Consortium (IAMC) 2021, 01 Dec. 2021, English, Oral presentation
  29 Nov. 2021 - 03 Dec. 2021, online. (The meeting Time Zone is UTC.)., [International presentation]
• Scaling up climate ambition post-2030: A long-term GHG mitigation analysis for Thailand
  Puttipong CHUNARK; Salony Rajbhandari; Bijay B. Pradhan; Bundit Limmeechokchai; Shinichiro Fujimori; Ken Oshiro; Yuki Ochi
  Fourteenth Annual Meeting of the Integrated Assessment Modeling Consortium (IAMC) 2021, 01 Dec. 2021, English, Poster presentation
  29 Nov. 2021 - 03 Dec. 2021, online. (The meeting Time Zone is UTC.)., [International presentation], ［Internationally co-authored］
• Conditions for low-carbon green growth
  Shiichiro Fujimori; Ken Oshiro; Tomoko Hasegawa
  Fourteenth Annual Meeting of the Integrated Assessment Modeling Consortium (IAMC) 2021, 01 Dec. 2021, English, Oral presentation
  29 Nov. 2021 - 03 Dec. 2021, online. (The meeting Time Zone is UTC.)., [International presentation]
• パリ協定CO₂排出削減目標の達成における水素エネルギーキャリアの役割の評価
  大城賢; 藤森真一郎
  第29回地球環境シンポジウム, 29 Sep. 2021, Japanese, Oral presentation
  27 Sep. 2021 - 29 Sep. 2021
• 世界およびアジアにおける二酸化炭素の地下貯留容量を考慮した気候変動緩和策の評価
  西浦理; 藤森真一郎; 大城賢
  第29回地球環境シンポジウム, 29 Sep. 2021, Japanese, Oral presentation
  27 Sep. 2021 - 29 Sep. 2021
• 交通部門における技術・社会の変容が気候変動政策へ及ぼす影響
  松井そら; 大城賢; 藤森真一郎; 西浦理
  第29回地球環境シンポジウム, 29 Sep. 2021, Japanese, Oral presentation
  27 Sep. 2021 - 29 Sep. 2021
• 日本における所得階層を考慮した炭素税の家計消費への影響
  佐々木克哉; 藤森真一郎; 長谷川知子; 大城賢
  第29回地球環境シンポジウム, 29 Sep. 2021, Japanese, Oral presentation
  27 Sep. 2021 - 29 Sep. 2021
• Poverty and inequality implications of carbon pricing under the long-term climate target
  Shiya ZHAO; Shinichiro FUJIMORI; Ken OSHIRO; Tomoko HASEGAWA
  Forty-third Symposium of Environmental & Sanitary Engineering Research, 31 Jul. 2021, Japanese, Oral presentation
  30 Jul. 2021 - 31 Jul. 2021, online, Japan
• 交通部門の社会変革が気候変動政策へ及ぼす影響
  松井そら; 藤森真一郎; 大城賢; 西浦理
  第43回京都大学環境衛生工学研究会シンポジウム, 31 Jul. 2021, 京都大学環境衛生工学研究会, Japanese, Oral presentation
  30 Jul. 2021 - 31 Jul. 2021, オンライン, Japan
• 家計の消費行動変化を考慮した日本における炭素税の異なる所得階層への影響
  佐々木克哉; 藤森真一郎; 大城賢; 長谷川知子
  第43回京都大学環境衛生工学研究会シンポジウム, 31 Jul. 2021, 京都大学環境衛生工学研究会, Japanese, Oral presentation
  30 Jul. 2021 - 31 Jul. 2021, オンライン, Japan
• 世界およびアジアにおける炭素地下貯留技術の物理的制約を考慮した気候変更緩和策の評価
  西浦理; 藤森真一郎; 大城賢
  第43回京都大学環境衛生工学研究会シンポジウム, 31 Jul. 2021, 京都大学環境衛生工学研究会, Japanese, Oral presentation
  30 Jul. 2021 - 31 Jul. 2021, オンライン, Japan
• Measuring stranded investment associated with transformation of energy supply and demand sectors in Japan
  Ken OSHIRO; Shinichiro Fujimori
  Thirteenth Annual Meeting of the Integrated Assessment Modeling Consortium (IAMC) 2020, 03 Dec. 2020, English, Poster presentation
  01 Dec. 2020 - 04 Dec. 2020, online. (The meeting Time Zone is UTC.)., [International presentation]
• An assessment of the potential of using carbon tax revenue to tackle poverty
  Shinichiro FUJIMORI; Tomoko Hasegawa; Ken OSHIRO
  Thirteenth Annual Meeting of the Integrated Assessment Modeling Consortium (IAMC) 2020, 03 Dec. 2020, English, Oral presentation
  01 Dec. 2020 - 04 Dec. 2020, online. (The meeting Time Zone is UTC.)., [International presentation]
• EMF 35 JMIP study for Japan's long-term climate and energy policy: scenario designs and overview
  Masahiro SUGIYAMA; Shinichiro Fujimori; Kenichi Wada; Ken Oshiro; Etsushi Kato; Ryoichi Komiyama; Diego Silva Herran; Yuhji Matsuo; Hiroto Shiraki; Yiyi Ju; Shogo Sakamoto
  Thirteenth Annual Meeting of the Integrated Assessment Modeling Consortium (IAMC) 2020, 02 Dec. 2020, English, Oral presentation
  01 Dec. 2020 - 04 Dec. 2020, online. (The meeting Time Zone is UTC.)., [International presentation]
• Industrial Decarbonization Under Japanʼs National Mitigation Scenarios: A Multi-Model Analysis
  居乄義; 杉山昌広; 加藤悦史; 松尾雄司; 大城賢; SILVA HERRAN Diego
  環境経済・政策学会2020 年大会, 27 Sep. 2020
  26954076;26954130
• アジアにおける温室効果ガス短期削減目標が2050年までのエネルギー投資に及ぼす影響
  大城賢; 藤森真一郎; 長谷川知子; 明石修
  第28回地球環境シンポジウム, 24 Sep. 2020, Japanese, Oral presentation
  23 Sep. 2020 - 25 Sep. 2020, Japan
• 世界を対象とした対流圏オゾンの作物収量に対する影響と気候政策の副次的便益に関する研究
  渡邉諒一; 藤森真一郎; 長谷川知子; 大城賢
  第28回地球環境シンポジウム, 23 Sep. 2020, Japanese, Oral presentation
  23 Sep. 2020 - 25 Sep. 2020, Japan
• アジア各国における温室効果ガス大幅削減に必要な対策とその経済的影響の要因分析
  西浦理; 藤森真一郎; 大城賢
  第28回地球環境シンポジウム, 23 Sep. 2020, Japanese, Oral presentation
  23 Sep. 2020 - 25 Sep. 2020, Japan
• 日本の農畜産業における温室効果ガス排出削減に関する研究
  槇山直人; 長谷川知子; 大城賢; 藤森真一郎
  第28回地球環境シンポジウム, 24 Sep. 2020, Oral presentation
• 日本の長期気候政策の評価：EMF 35 JMIP プロジェクト
  杉山昌広; 藤森真一郎; 和田謙一; 加藤悦史; 小宮山涼一; 松尾雄司; 大城賢; Diego Silva Herran
  第39回エネルギー ･資源学会研究発表会, 28 Jul. 2020, Japanese, Oral presentation
  28 Jul. 2020 - 29 Jul. 2020, オンライン開催
• EMF 35 JMIP study: preliminary results and implications for Japan’s climate change mitigation
  Masahiro Sugiyama; Shinichiro Fujimori; Kenichi Wada; Ken Oshiro; Etsushi Kato; Atsushi Kurosawa; Ryoichi Komiyama; Diego Silva Herran; Yuhji Matsuo; Hiroto Shiraki; Shogo Sakamoto; Yiyi Ju
  the 23rd Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis "Global Economic Analysis Beyond 2020", 17 Jun. 2020, Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP), English
  17 Jun. 2020 - 19 Jun. 2020, Virtual Conference
• Asia-Pacific Integrated Model (AIM)による日本の緩和シナリオ分析
  大城賢
  EU-日本気候変動政策シンポジウム, 06 Dec. 2019, Invited oral presentation
  12839250;13442687, [Invited]
• Japan’s emission pathways in the context of the 2°C goals and their implications for the mid-century strategy
  Ken Oshiro; Shinichiro Fujimori; Keii Gi; Heleen L. van Soest; Christoph Bertram; Jacques Després; Toshihiko Masui; Pedro Rochedo; Mark Roelfsema; Zoi Vrontisi
  The 12th Annual Meeting of the IAMC, 03 Dec. 2019, Oral presentation
  12839250;13442687
• Development of land use scenarios for Japan based on downscaling of the global SSP land use scenarios
  Wenchao Wu; Tomoko Hasegawa; Kiyoshi Takahashi; Shinichiro Fujimori; Ken Oshiro
  環境科学会2019年会, 14 Sep. 2019, Oral presentation
• パリ協定気候目標を踏まえた日本の長期排出経路に関する分析
  大城賢
  環境科学会2019年会, 14 Sep. 2019, Oral presentation
  12839250;13442687
• 日本の長期気候変動緩和策に関するマルチ・モデル分析
  杉山昌広; 藤森真一郎; 和田謙一; 王嘉陽; 大城賢; 加藤悦史; 黒沢厚志; 小宮山涼一; スィルバ エラン ディエゴ; 藤井康正; 松尾雄司
  環境経済・政策学会2018年大会, Sep. 2018, Oral presentation
• Scenario analysis on mid-century low emission pathways in Japan
  Ken Oshiro
  LCSR-net 10th Annual Meeting, 17 Jul. 2018
  [Invited]
• Asia-Pacific Integrated Model (AIM) - Applications for the NDC and mid-century strategies –
  Ken Oshiro
  China Energy Modeling Forum Annual Conference, 23 Jan. 2018
  Tsinghua University, China, [Invited]
• Mid-century scenarios in Japan: some insights from CD-LINKS
  Ken Oshiro
  The first international workshop of JMIP, 14 Dec. 2017
• Assessment of Japan’s NDC and long-term goal- Contributions of Asia-Pacific Integrated Model (AIM)
  Ken Oshiro
  Japan-India Policy Research Workshop, 30 Aug. 2016
  India Habitat Centre, India, [Invited]
• 輸送距離別将来交通需要を考慮した次世代自動車普及による長期CO2排出削減効果
  大城賢; 伏間丈悟; 増井利彦
  環境科学会2014年会, 18 Sep. 2014, Oral presentation
• 長期温室効果ガス排出削減シナリオにおける電力需給調整対策の役割
  大城賢; 増井利彦
  環境経済・政策学会2014年大会, 14 Sep. 2014, Oral presentation
• 多地域技術選択モデルを用いたわが国のCO2削減シナリオの分析
  大城賢; 増井利彦
  環境経済・政策学会2013年大会, 21 Sep. 2013, Oral presentation
• 日本の2020年・2030年エネルギー・温暖化シナリオシミュレーション分析：技術モデルによる東京電力福島第一原子力発電所事故後のエネルギーの選択肢づくり
  藤野純一; 芦名秀一; 増井利彦; 日比野剛; 松井重和; 大城賢
  環境経済・政策学会2012年大会, 15 Sep. 2012, Oral presentation

• 日本地球惑星科学連合
• エネルギー・資源学会
• 京都大学環境衛生工学研究会
• JAPAN SOCIETY OF CIVIL ENGINEERS

• 脱炭素化困難分野における残余排出の定量化とその削減方策の評価
  科学研究費助成事業
  01 Apr. 2026 - 31 Mar. 2030
  大城 賢
  日本学術振興会, 基盤研究(B), 北海道大学, 26K03145
• 世界モデルを用いた脱炭素と貧困・飢餓・エネルギー貧困撲滅の同時達成の可能性の検討
  科学研究費助成事業
  01 Apr. 2023 - 31 Mar. 2027
  藤森 真一郎; 大城 賢; 長谷川 知子
  日本学術振興会, 基盤研究(B), 京都大学, 23H01537
• 世界を対象とした1.5℃気候安定化目標下の二酸化炭素除去の選択肢とその含意
  環境研究総合推進費
  Apr. 2024 - Mar. 2027
  環境省・環境再生保全機構, Coinvestigator
• Impact of the decarbonization goals on energy security
  Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research
  Apr. 2023 - Mar. 2026
  大城 賢; 藤森 真一郎
  Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C), Kyoto University, Principal investigator, 23K04087
• カーボンニュートラル移行の加速に向けた総合知に基づく社会シナリオ
  低炭素社会実現のための社会シナリオ研究事業
  2023 - 2026
  杉山 正和
  本研究では、定量的な科学技術評価に基づいて明るく豊かなカーボンニュートラル社会の未来像への道筋を描く複数の定性的シナリオ・ナラティブ(ストーリーライン)と統合評価モデルなどに基づく定量的評価体系を開発します。本研究は全体統括グループに加えて技術シナリオ評価グループ、定量シナリオ解析グループ、社会シナリオ対話グループ、統合シナリオ構築グループの4チームからなり、コストエンジニアリング、ライフサイクル評価、統合評価、社会技術分析などの手法を積み上げ、ワークショップなどを経て、総合知に基づくシナリオ開発を目指します。これにより加速的な移行戦略を創出し、日本のカーボンニュートラル社会の実現に貢献します。
  科学技術振興機構, 国立大学法人東京大学, Coinvestigator
• 世界全域を対象とした技術・経済・社会的な実現可能性を考慮した脱炭素社会への道筋に関する研究
  環境研究総合推進費
  Apr. 2021 - Mar. 2024
  藤森真一郎
  環境再生保全機構, Coinvestigator
• 脱炭素トランジション：イノベーションとライフスタイル変容の複数モデル評価
  環境研究総合推進費
  Apr. 2021 - Mar. 2024
  杉山昌広
  環境再生保全機構, Coinvestigator
• 温室効果ガス排出削減が貧困にもたらす影響評価
  Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)
  01 Apr. 2019 - 31 Mar. 2023
  藤森 真一郎; 長谷川 知子; 大城 賢
  Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B), Kyoto University, Competitive research funding, 19H02273
• 社会と消費行動の変化がわが国の脱炭素社会の実現に及ぼす影響
  環境研究総合推進費
  Apr. 2020 - Mar. 2023
  金森 有子
  環境再生保全機構, Coinvestigator
• 世界を対象としたネットゼロ排出達成のための気候緩和策及び持続可能な開発
  環境研究総合推進費
  Apr. 2020 - Mar. 2023
  高橋 潔
  環境再生保全機構, Coinvestigator
• 技術・経済・社会的制約を踏まえた世界CO2ゼロ排出のフィージビリティ評価
  Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research Grant-in-Aid for Early-Career Scientists
  Apr. 2020 - Mar. 2023
  大城 賢
  Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, Grant-in-Aid for Early-Career Scientists, Kyoto University, Principal investigator, 20K14860
• アジアにおける温室効果ガス排出削減の深掘りとその支援による日本への裨益に関する研究
  環境研究総合推進費
  Apr. 2019 - Mar. 2022
  増井 利彦
  環境再生保全機構, Competitive research funding
• アジアの社会構造転換が地球環境問題に及ぼす影響の定量分析手法の開発と応用
  環境研究助成
  2019 - 2021
  藤森真一郎
  住友財団
• パリ協定気候目標と持続可能開発目標の同時実現に向けた気候政策の統合分析
  環境研究総合推進費
  Apr. 2017 - Mar. 2020
  高橋 潔
  環境再生保全機構, Competitive research funding
• わが国を中心とした温室効果ガスの長期削減目標に対応する緩和策の評価に関する研究
  環境研究総合推進費
  Apr. 2014 - Mar. 2017
  芦名 秀一
  環境省, Competitive research funding
• 統合評価モデルを用いた世界の温暖化対策を考慮したわが国の温暖化政策の効果と影響
  環境研究総合推進費
  Apr. 2011 - Mar. 2014
  増井 利彦
  環境省, Competitive research funding

• 第31回地球環境シンポジウム実行小委員会 委員
  Sep. 2023
  Planning etc
  Competition etc
  土木学会地球環境委員会

• UNEP, Global Environment Outlook 7 (GEO-7) 執筆協力者
  2025
  Report writing
  United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP)

• 水素・アンモニア発電、脱炭素への貢献は限定的 世界の発電量に占める割合１％程度 京大試算
  26 Mar. 2024
  朝日新聞
  21面, [Paper]
• 水素・アンモニア、発電の1%に 京大チームが予測
  24 Mar. 2024
  日本経済新聞 電子版
  [Paper]
• 水素・アンモニア発電 貢献「限定的」と指摘 京都大
  20 Mar. 2024
  環境新聞オンライン
  [Paper]
• 火力の水素・アンモニア代替、世界発電量の1%だけ 2050年試算
  04 Mar. 2024
  朝日新聞デジタル
  [Internet]
• 低排出シナリオにおいて水素混焼が火力発電の延命に及ぼす影響は限定的
  04 Mar. 2024
  成果の記者発表(於京都大学)
  [Others]
• 合成燃料活用でCO2ゼロ排出を達成する新シナリオ＝京大など
  18 Jul. 2023
  MIT Technology Review
  [Paper]
• 合成燃料、世界エネ需要3割代替 コストは高く 京大が試算
  17 Jul. 2023
  日刊工業新聞社
  日刊工業新聞
  科学技術・大学 21面, [Paper]
• 炭素回収利用を用いた新たなエネルギー移行シナリオ：既存のエネルギー利用技術を維持できるが高コスト
  14 Jul. 2023
  成果の記者発表(於京都大学・立命館大学・国立環境研究所)
  [Others]
• 社会経済・技術の変革による脱炭素化費用の低減
  19 May 2023
  成果の記者発表(於京都大学・立命館大学・国立環境研究所・北海道大学)
  [Others]
• 電化・バイオマス重要 水素、製造コスト面に課題 京大、50年脱炭素シナリオ予測
  08 Mar. 2022
  日刊工業新聞
  朝刊23面, [Paper]
• 50年カーボンゼロは異次元の挑戦 シナリオ分析は示す
  25 Jan. 2021
  日本経済新聞
  電子版, [Paper]
• DDPP
  Mar. 2015
  Myself
  日経エコロジー
  p106, 12839249, [Paper]
• 気候変動に挑む５ 次世代に残せ豊かな地球
  25 Nov. 2014
  日刊工業新聞
  1面, 12839249, [Paper]